Jimmy Rollins officially retires as a member of the Philadelphia Phillies

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JRoll officially retires as a member of the Phillies

Prior to Saturday night’s big division rivalry game with the Washington Nationals, the host Philadelphia Phillies will hold a ceremony to honor long time shortstop Jimmy Rollins on the occasion of his official retirement from Major League Baseball.

Rollins, who turned 40 years of age back in November, played with the Phillies for the first 15 of his 17-year career in the big-leagues.

Born in Oakland, California, Rollins was the Phillies 2nd round pick in the 1996 MLB Draft out of Encinal High School in Alameda, California.

After getting his feet wet with the Rookie-level Martinsville club in the Appalachian League during that first pro summer of 1996, Rollins developed into an all-around offensive threat who could field the shortstop position brilliantly.

Over the 1997-99 seasons, he collected 110 extra-base hits and stole 94 bases. Spending most of the 2000 season with Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, Rollins hit .274 with 51 extra-base hits and 24 steals, earning his first big-league promotion for a 14-game cup of coffee with the Phillies that September.

His first appearance in a Phillies uniform in an official MLB game came on Sunday afternoon September 17, 2000 at Veteran’s Stadium. That day he hit second in manager Terry Francona‘s lineup and provided an immediate spark. Rollins delivered two hits including a triple, drew a walk, stole his first base, and scored twice to contribute towards a 6-5 win.

Rollins started in the leadoff spot for the first time the very next day at The Vet against the Pittsburgh Pirates. he again delivered two hits and also recorded the first RBI of his career with a base hit in the bottom of the 6th inning to score Tom Prince.

He would play in 14 games that first month, 11 of those as the starter at shortstop. Seven times he produced a multi-hit game, setting himself up as the starter at the position to open the 2001 season.

Under new manager Larry Bowa, the Phillies began emerging for the first time in years as a contender, and Rollins was a primary reason. On May 2, 2001 at Veteran’s Stadium, Rollins led off the bottom of the 4th inning against Colorado Rockies starter Brian Bohanon and blasted the first home run of his career.

These were just the first milestone moments of what would become one of the most storied careers in the history of the franchise. By the time it was all over, Rollins had become the franchise all-time Hit King with 2,306 hits for the Phillies.

First lineup changes of the season for Phillies as J.T. Realmuto gets a rest

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Andrew Knapp gets his first start of the season behind the plate

It’s one of the most commonly used and recognized phrases in the English language, understandable to anyone who hears it uttered: if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

Phillies manager Gabe Kapler has lived by that mantra over the first week of the 2019 Major League Baseball season. For the first six games the skipper has run out the exact same starting lineup. The Phillies have responded with a 5-1 record, with an average of 8.2 runs scored per game.

But it was only a matter of time before an injury or the need to give someone a blow would necessitate a change, and that first starting lineup comes today. It’s a fairly subtle change, however, one that should not be unexpected.

Kapler’s lineup for Saturday afternoon’s Interleague game against the visiting Minnesota Twins at Citizens Bank Park will see Andrew Knapp receiving his first start of the year behind the plate. That gives starting catcher J.T. Realmuto a needed break for a day game following a night game.

In order to keep the best all-around catcher in the game today fully healthy over the course of a long six-month season, Kapler is going to need to pick and choose these types of opportunities to give his starting backstop a rest. Fans should expect that Realmuto is going to get a couple of dozen of these breaks over the course of the year, or about once per week.

SATURDAY LINEUPS AND PREVIEW

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Cliff Lee: he never wanted to leave Phillies in the first place

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Cliff Lee came and went in 2009 and came back in 2010

During what all fans of the Philadelphia Phillies have been led to believe will be one of the most significant off-season periods ever for the franchise, I’ve been taking a look back at the team’s ‘Hot Stove’ history.

So far we have recalled the signings of Pete Rose (1978), Jose Mesa(2000), and Jim Thome (2002) in free agency. We have also revisited key off-season trades: the 1981 three-way deal that resulted in Lonnie Smith leaving and Bo Diaz arriving, the 1982 trade of future Hall of Famer Ryne Sandberg, and the trading away of Thome.

Probably the most recent important Phillies move during a Hot Stove season came in the middle of December back in 2010. It was then that general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. began trying to reverse a huge prior mistake from exactly one year earlier. Both decisions were among the most influential during the 2009-11 period when the club was trying to get back to the World Series.

Those two moves involved a left-handed starting pitcher named Cliff Lee. His pro career had begun after he was drafted three times. Lee finally signed after being selected by the Montreal Expos with their fourth round selection in the 2000 MLB Amateur Draft.

In June 2002, Lee was dealt to the Cleveland Indians as part of a four-prospect package that also included Grady Sizemore and Brandon Phillips in an overall six-player deal that brought starting pitcher Bartolo Colon to Montreal.

LEE DEVELOPS INTO AN ACE

In Cleveland’s minor league system, Lee showed enough with Buffalo of the Triple-A International League that he was given a two-start cup of coffee with the Indians in September 2002. He went 10.1 innings allowing just six hits over those two outings.

Lee won the 2008 AL Cy Young Award with Cleveland

After beginning the 2003 season back at Triple-A, Lee received a spot start with Cleveland in late June. Then in mid-August he was called to the big-leagues for good. Lee would enter the Tribe’s starting rotation and remain there for the next six years.

Lee would develop into one of the top starting pitchers in the game, culminating in a memorable 2008 season. While the Phillies were driving towards their first World Series crown in nearly three decades, Lee was putting together a Cy Young Award-winning season in Cleveland.

In that 2008 campaign, Lee went 22-3 with a 2.54 ERA and 1.110 WHIP. He also had a fabulous 170/34 K:BB ratio over 223.1 innings across 31 starts. In addition to the Cy Young honors, he was an AL All-Star for the first time, and even received AL MVP votes.

Lee was scheduled to become a free agent after the 2010 season, and it became obvious that the Indians would not be able to get him to sign a contract extension. Looking at a rebuilding situation, Cleveland GM Mark Shapiro decided to find a deal for him a year early.

LEE ACQUIRED BY CHAMPS IN-SEASON

As defending World Series champions, the Phillies were struggling to open up a lead in a tight NL East race in July 2009. A big reason was that the team’s starting pitching was looking a bit fragile.

My 2019 IBWAA Baseball Hall of Fame ballot

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Former Phillies star Jim Thome was among those voted into the HOF last year

As a lifetime member of the IBWAA (Internet Baseball Writers Association), I have the honor of being involved in the organization’s annual Hall of Fame voting process. This is my fifth year with a ballot, and my selections were turned in about two weeks ago.

The IBWAA voting process does not earn a player a plaque at Cooperstown. It does, however, allow a group of well-informed voters to express their opinion as to which players are deserving of the ultimate honor for their baseball career. You can consider it a formal endorsement from baseball writers and bloggers who represent dozens of internet sites.

I had decided over the last couple of years to break my ballot down into three segments. “Hall of Fame” players are those who, for me, are obvious, or whom I evaluated from previous years and decided were worthy.

“Future Consideration” names are not so obvious to me, but are strong enough candidates that I will continue to evaluate them moving forward. Finally, “Not Hall of Famer” guys are those who just don’t make the cut for me and will not in the future.

In 2017, eight players received my IBWAA vote: Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Trevor Hoffman, Mike Mussina, Manny Ramirez, Ivan Rodriguez, Curt Schilling, and Larry Walker. Both Rodriguez and Vladimir Guerrero, who I had on my “Future Consideration” list that year, were voted in by the full IBWAA membership.

Last year just five returning players received my vote as a “Hall of Fame” player: Bonds, Clemens, and Schilling once again, as well as two newcomers to the ballot: Jim Thome and Chipper Jones.

On my “Future Consideration” list from the 2018 ballot were Hoffman, Mussina, Walker, Ramirez, Scott Rolen, Gary Sheffield, Billy Wagner, Lee Smith, Johnny Damon, Sammy Sosa, Jeff Kent, Fred McGriff, Omar Vizquel, Jamie Moyer, Andruw Jones, and Johan Santana.

The IBWAA membership honored six players in the final vote a year ago. Bonds and Clemens each finally got in, joined by Thome, CJones, Mussina, and Hoffman.

While the BBWAA only allow their eligible Hall of Fame voters to cast ballots for up to 10 players, the IBWAA has a 15-player limit. I decided after looking over the names to cast a wide ballot this year. Bottom line, I simply felt generous.

MY 2019 IBWAA BALLOT

My list for the 2019 IBWAA ballot was led by Schilling, the only player who has been a definite, no-doubt “Hall of Fame” player for me in both of the last two years but hasn’t made it as yet.

Two newcomers on this year’s ballot were considered by me to be no-doubt “Hall of Fame” players. Both Mariano Rivera and Roy Halladay thus received my vote as well.

I had decided early-on to bump up two players from last year’s “Future Consideration” list who were back on the 2019 IBWAA ballot, Walker and Rolen, to receive my vote.

11 with connections to the Phillies have a 2019 shot at the Baseball Hall of Fame

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Schilling (R) has already joined Schmidt (L) and Carlton (C) in the Phillies Wall of Fame

Ballots for nominees to the 2019 Baseball Hall of Fame class were received this past week by eligible voters with the Baseball Writers Association of America.

There are 35 players on the ballot this year. That total includes 15 holdovers from last year’s ballot and 20 newcomers. Among those nominees there are nine who played with the Phillies at one time or another.

Three returning Phillies players on the BBWAA ballot this year are Curt Schilling, Billy Wagner and Scott Rolen.

Schilling spent most of his Phillies career from 1992-2000 as a starter, including as the ace of the 1993 NL pennant-winning squad. Wagner was a lights-out closer for the Phillies during the 2004-05 campaigns. Rolen was the 1997 NL Rookie of the Year and four-time Gold Glove third baseman during his 1996-2002 Phillies years.

The half-dozen newcomers to the BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot for 2019 are pitchers Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, and Freddy Garcia. Infielders Placido Polanco and Michael Young and outfielder Juan Pierre also spent time with the Phillies and are on the ballot this year as position players.

PHILLIES NEWCOMERS TO THE BALLOT

Garcia (34.4 WAR), Young (21.4) and Pierre (17.1) are very likely to fall off the ballot after this round of voting. Any player who does not receive support from at least 5% of the voters is removed from the ballot, and it is hard to imagine either player reaching that mark. Oswalt and Polanco each have a chance to receive at least enough support to remain on the ballot for a second year.

Oswalt was part of the 2011 ‘Four Aces’ starting pitching rotation that led those Phillies to a franchise-record 102 regular season victories. The righty had come over from Houston at the 2010 non-waiver trade deadline following a strong decade with the Astros during which he was a three-time NL All-Star and finished among the top five in NL Cy Young Award five times.

Over a 13-year career in Major League Baseball with three organizations, Oswalt went 163-102 with a 3.36 ERA and 1.211 WHIP. He registered an excellent 3.56 K:BB and accumulated a 50 career WAR mark.

Polanco was obtained in a 2002 trade with the Saint Louis Cardinals for Rolen. He would start at second base for the Phillies from 2002 until being traded to the Detroit Tigers during the 2005 season, making way for Chase Utley to take over the position.

With the Tigers, Polanco became an AL All-Star and won two Gold Gloves and a Silver Slugger. He was named the Most Valuable Player of the 2007 ALCS and received AL MVP votes in both 2007 and 2009.

Polanco returned to the Phillies after the 2009 season as a free agent, playing third base from 2010-12. He was a 2011 NL All-Star and captured this third career Gold Glove Award at a second position. Polanco finished with 2,142 hits over 16 big-league seasons with a 41.5 WAR mark.

Halladay has an excellent shot at enshrinement in his first year on the ballot. He accumulated a 64.3 career WAR mark to go along with a 203-105 record, 3.38 ERA, 1.178 WHIP, 3.58 K:BB and a host of signature accomplishments and awards.

The big right-hander was the AL Cy Young Award winner in 2003 with the Toronto Blue Jays and the NL Cy Young Award winner in 2010 with the Phillies. He finished as runner-up for the award with both teams as well.

Halladay was an eight-time All-Star and three-time 20-game winner (won 19 twice) who led his league in innings pitched four times, shutouts four times, and in complete games on seven occasions.

Jake Arrieta no longer an ace, but needs to be more consistent

Phillies need a more consistent Arrieta

The Philadelphia Phillies made the bold move to sign free agent starting pitcher Jake Arrieta early in spring training. 

You could excuse some fans of the team, starved for a winner after five bottom-dweller seasons, who thought the club had signed a Cy Young Award contending ace to front the team’s rotation.

Arrieta has indeed won those honors as the top pitcher in the National League. But that was back in 2015 when he was a 29-year-old at the top of his game pitching for the NL Central Division champion Chicago Cubs.

The right-hander went 68-31 with the Cubbies over most of five seasons from 2013-17. In that NL Cy Young campaign, he also finished sixth in the voting for the National League Most Valuable Player.

Arrieta finished in the top ten of Cy Young voting each year from 2014-16 and was both an NL All-Star and Silver Slugger Award winner in 2016 when he helped lead the Cubs to their first World Series crown in more than a century.

But again, that was in the prime of his career. The Phillies signed Arrieta to a five-year deal back in March which guaranteed him $55 million for this year and next, his ages 32 and 33 seasons.

The pitcher can opt out of the deal after next season. The Phillies can void that opt out by exercising their own options on the remainder of the contract. If they choose to do so, the club would agree to pay him $20 million each year from ages 34-36.

As reported by Todd Zolecki at MLB.com, Phillies controlling general partner John Middleton had been quoted on the organization’s strategy in approaching free agent signings and trade additions as it builds back towards contending status.

“We’re always trying to improve the team, but we’ve got to do it a way that makes sense now and next year. We don’t want to sacrifice something significant in the future by making a short-term move. Whether it’s a trade or a signing, if we get the deal we think is right, we’ll do it. We’ll pull the trigger. Money is zero object. No object whatsoever.”

It’s a pretty good deal from the Phillies perspective. The organization has had a lot of luck with veteran pitchers during their early thirties in recent years. Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Roy Oswalt are the prime examples.

In signing Arrieta, the Phillies and their fans certainly could expect to get solid performances from the pitcher both this year and next. After that, the club can gauge his performance and health, the status of the rest of the team and pitching rotation and make their decision on the 2020-22 extension.

So far this year, Arrieta has been everything they could have hoped. Including last night’s relatively poor outing, he has made 19 starts for the club. Arrieta has a 7-6 record with a 3.23 ERA and 1.223 WHIP. He has allowed 93 hits over 103 innings with a 72/33 K:BB ratio.

Those are not Cy Young contender numbers. They are not “ace” numbers. However, they are certainly solid numbers for any big league starting pitcher. 

Based on the performances of youngsters Aaron Nola and Zach Eflin, you would have to slot Arrieta in as the Phillies current number three starter. His statistical results and experience combine to give the ball club a strong option in that role.

In eight of his outings, Arrieta has pitched into or beyond the seventh inning. He has gone at least six innings in 11 of the 19 starts. More than half (10) have resulted in Quality Starts of six or more innings pitched allowing three or fewer earned runs.

Anniversary of a Controversial Phillies Deal

The Philadelphia Phillies had just lost the World Series to the New York Yankees six weeks earlier. That six-game defeat came after the club had won the Fall Classic the previous season.

General manager Ruben Amaro Jr. was presented with an interesting and exciting opportunity. Longtime ace pitcher Roy Halladay was being made available in trade by the Toronto Blue Jays.

Adding ‘Doc’ to the two-time NL pennant winners could be just what was needed to keep the championship ball rolling.

Amaro was able to negotiate and finalize the deal: Halladay to the Phillies for a trio of highly regarded prospects in Kyle Drabek, Travis d’Arnaud, and Michael Taylor.

Halladay was 32 years old at the time. The winner of the 2003 AL Cy Young Award was a six-time American League all-star. He had finished fifth in AL Cy Young race that fall, the fourth consecutive season in the top five of the voting.

Just a year earlier, following that 2008 World Series victory by the Phillies, Halladay had been the runner-up for that AL Cy Young Award. The winner? Cliff Lee of the Cleveland Indians.

Lee was now Phillies property, having been acquired from the Tribe in a trade deadline deal. The lefty was a key addition in helping the Phils nail down a third straight NL East crown, and second consecutive NL pennant.

As word of the Halladay trade broke, there was a brief moment of almost indescribable joy that swept across Phillies Nation. A pitching rotation fronted by Halladay, Lee, and Cole Hamels?

Added to the still dynamic offense that the Phillies had at the time, that trio would certainly elevate the Phillies back to World Series favorites.

And then the other shoe dropped.

Fire Ruben Amaro

It’s an idea so simplistic that it has developed its own active Twitter hashtag of #FireRuben, and as the Phillies enter a 3rd consecutive lost September under his watch it is very fair for Fightin’s fans to start saying out loud and often. 

The team needs a new direction, from the top, and it’s time to fire Ruben Amaro from his position as General Manager of the team.

There have been a number of traditional media and blogger articles written in recent days and weeks on this topic, so I’m not going to spend a lot of time rehashing those thoughts. Here is one very simple question that you need to answer, if you are not sure about Amaro: were he to be released today, is he likely to ever again be considered for a GM job with any other franchise for the rest of his life?

The GM of a franchise in Major League Baseball can be properly looked at with two questions.

Remembering Doc's No-No on Anniversary of Perfection

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Halladay and Ruiz embrace after final out of playoff no-hitter

For Phillies fans, it was not that long ago that our team was at the top of the National League, with the best starting rotation in baseball leading the way.

Three years ago on this date the Fightins were in the midst of a franchise record-setting 101-win season, and that vaunted pitching rotation included four pitchers who had been collectively nicknamed "The Four Aces" by fans and media.

Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, and arguably the Ace among Aces, Roy 'Doc' Halladay. It all seems to be drifting further and further into the rearview mirror now. Oswalt has been gone for a couple of years. Lee is on the Disabled List, and heavily rumored in trade discussion. Only Hamels remains, and is likely to remain, for the foreseeable future.

Halladay finally retired following the 2013 season, one that was frustrating and painful for himself and for fans of both the team and the man whom we had all come to love over the final four years of a brilliant career that spanned parts of 16 seasons, mostly with the Toronto Blue Jays. In what was his 2nd consecutive ineffective season cut short by injuries, Doc Halladay's gifted right arm finally was spent.

But Halladay left behind a tremendous legacy in just those brief closing seasons here in Philly. There was the Cy Young Award that he won following his first season here in 2010, a 21-win campaign that included that 'Perfect Game' on May 29th. There was that magical 2011 season in which he was the Cy Young runner-up for the record-setting Phillies who won their 5th straight NL East title. And there was that 'Perfect Game' against the Florida Marlins on this night, four years ago now.

For my wife and I, there was also a special night with Doc. It came on a cool, damp night at Citizens Bank Park in the 2010 playoffs, in what was the very first playoff game of Roy Halladay's illustrious career. It was what he had come to Philly for in the first place, a chance to win a World Series, in front of a ballpark packed to the rafters with rabid, knowledgeable fans. It was Roy Halladay's dream.

We are 'Sunday Plan' season ticket holders with the Phillies, and back in 2010 our seats were in section 208, row 6. On that night of October 6th, 2010, however, because it was a playoff game, we had been given tickets in section 313. So we were seated up above left field in foul territory, a little ways beyond first base. They were good seats, as are most at the gorgeous ballpark.

The Phillies were up by 1-0 in the series, and as this game unfolded the team staked Halladay to an early lead, scoring a run in the 1st and then 3 more in the 2nd to go up 4-0. Halladay himself had knocked in the 2nd run, and then scored the 4th. It was now up to him to hold that lead, and put the Phillies up 2-0 in the series, within one of advancing to the National League Championship Series.

On this night, there was nothing to worry about. Not only would Halladay hold that lead, he would make history. Somewhere around the 6th inning my father called my cellphone from his home in Florida, asking if I knew what was happening. Did he really think that we were not all aware that Doc Halladay was tossing a no-hitter? I told him brusquely: "Yes, and don't say anything!"

A lifelong baseball fan, as my Dad well knew, I was not going to be the one to jinx our hero.

So the game continued into the 9th inning with Halladay just three outs away from Major League Baseball's first post-season no-hitter since Don Larsen's legendary 'Perfect Game' in the 1956 World Series. That Larsen perfect effort was the only no-hitter in MLB playoff history up to that point. Halladay was going for history here, and we were there to see it.

I had been attending Phillies games since Veteran's Stadium opened back in 1971 in my old South Philly neighborhood. I had attended hundreds of games between the years at 'The Vet' and then at Citizens Bank Park once it opened in 2004. I had never, ever been this close to experiencing a no-hitter 'live' as a spectator. It was thrilling to feel the electricity in the air, and to be experiencing it with my best friend, my wife Deb.

The first two batters of that 9th and final inning went down fairly easily, both popping out. So there was just one batter between Doc, we Phils fans, and the no-hitter, the Cincinnati Reds tough and talented 2nd baseman Brandon Phillips. Doc got the first two strikes, and the fans, already on our feet the entire inning, roared for that final strike to end it.

Phillies: Where Do We Go From Here?

I'm writing this on the day after the Philadelphia Phillies ended the most successful regular season in franchise history with one of their most devastating playoff losses. The team of the "Fantastic Four", the "Four Aces", lost to the Saint Louis Cardinals last night, at home, by a 1-0 score. Shutout by Chris Carpenter and sent packing for the winter, where do the Fightin' Phils go from here?

Let's begin with the basics. Who will be back in 2012, who will not be back, and what are the biggest question marks as far as the current players on the roster. After that we can do a little gazing into a crystal ball to see who, if anyone, GM Ruben Amaro might target in the Hot Stove League.

The list of who will be back begins with Amaro himself, who is signed to a contract through the 2015 season, and whose time with the team must be considered nothing short of a complete success. As the Assistant GM to now MLB Hall of Famer Pat Gillick and former GM Ed Wade, he was highly influential in building the 2008 World Series champions. As the GM, he has made bold moves that have kept the club in strong contention.

Next on the list of those coming back is manager Charlie Manuel, who signed an extension taking him through the 2013 season. Manuel's steady hand and generally easy-going manner endear him to today's ballplayer. He is the club's all-time winningest manager. He led the team to that 2008 World Series. Unless the soon to be 68-year old finds his tenure cut short by health, he will man the helm for at least two more years.

On the field, those returning include Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Placido Polanco, Carlos Ruiz, Shane Victorino, Hunter Pence, John Mayberry Jr, Michael Martinez, and Domonic Brown. Every one of those players will be returning and will make up the bulk of the Phillies position players on offense and defense for the 2012 season.

On the mound, returning will be Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Vance Worley, Joe Blanton, Antonio Bastardo, Jose Contreras, David Herndon, Michael Stutes, and Michael Schwimer. Hamels has a club option that the Phillies are certain to pick up, and he will likely be the target of a club attempt at a long-term contract this off-season.

This takes us to the question marks among the current crop of players, and there are a handful of big ones as well as a couple of smaller but possibly important ones as well. These players include Jimmy Rollins, Roy Oswalt, Ryan Madson, Brad Lidge, Brian Schneider, Wilson Valdez, Ben Francisco, and Kyle Kendrick. Let's take the biggest names one at a time.

Jimmy Rollins has been the heart and soul of this franchise for at least a half dozen years. It's senior member, 'JRoll' has been a Phillie his entire career, which began really with his first full season back in 2001. He was the 2007 NL MVP when his proclamation that the Phillies, not the then-powerhouse New York Mets, were the "team to beat" in the NL East proved prescient.

The arguments to bring back Rollins are emotional. He is the acknowledged leader. There is not a single fan who grew up as or became one in the past decade who can imagine the Phillies without JRoll at shortstop. Thing is, I've already been here, done this. I went through the same with Larry Bowa almost 30 years ago. The day will come, and that day may indeed be here.

The rub with Rollins will be the contract. He is a free agent for the first time in his career, and he is well aware that this will be his final shot at big bucks. He can still spark a team as shown by his 16 homeruns and 30 steals, and he was perhaps the team's best hitter in the 2011 playoffs. But he turns 33 years old next month. How many years, and how much money, do you give the guy? And how much of that is for what he has done, rather than what you believe he will do?

My guess is that Jimmy Rollins will be looking for at least a 3-year contract worth at least $40 million overall. At least that, and he is rumored to be seeking a 5-year deal. Freddy Galvis is the Phillies organization minor league Player of the Year. He turns 22 years old next month. He is already considered Major League-ready with the glove, an exceptional defender. He would probably be an all-glove, little-hit guy for at least a couple seasons. I am guessing that he is the Phillies 2012 starting shortstop, and that we are watching the final weeks of the JRoll era.

Roy Oswalt is another toughie. He just turned 34-years old last month, and the club has a $16 million option for 2012. A couple months ago, it looked like his balky back might lead him to retirement, especially if he could go out on top with a championship. But he got healthy, said he felt great at the end of the season, had his fastball popping again, and is looking to return. It says here that starting pitchers of his experience and pedigree do not grow on trees, and that the Phils should pickup that option and bring back the "Four Aces" intact for one more shot at the brass ring.

Ryan Madson and Brad Lidge have been at the core of the Phillies back-end bullpen for the past four years. The iconic scene of Lidge dropping to his knees after his strikeout and perfect season clinched the 2008 World Series will forever be etched in the hearts and minds of the team and it's fans. He will get free dinners around this town, justifiably, for decades. But his time is likely up. The club has an $11.5 million option on him for 2012, but with Lidge turning 35 in December, and a bunch of young relievers ready, that money can be spent better elsewhere.

Madson is a far more interesting situation. He is a free agent. His agent is Scott Boras. He will definitely be looking for big money as a closer with some team. He has been a career-long Phillie, and did a strong job for the club in his first full season as the full-time closer this past year. At age 31, he should still have a few strong years in his right arm. My guess is that he is going to look for a 4-5 year deal in the $50 million range. That might be difficult for the club to take on. But if they really believe that he is a shutdown closer, it might also prove to be money well spent. I call it 50-50 on Mad Dog returning.

Brian Schneider is a good, reliable, talented backup catcher. Same on Wilson Valdez as a backup infielder. Both should be back if they don't price themselves out of town, which is doubtful. Ben Francisco, despite his big NLDS pinch-homer, is likely gone. He is eligible for arbitration, but the club saw enough from Mayberry and thinks highly enough of Brown to make Big Ben disposable. I say they don't offer arbitration here. The final question then is Kyle Kendrick, also arbitration eligible. Another one that I see as 50-50. He has grown, has some talent, could start for many teams. He may be a trade piece.

So it says here that your 2012 Phillies will have an infield of Howard-Utley-Galvis-Polanco, Chooch behind the plate, the Flyin' Hawaiian in centerfield, Pence in right, and a platoon of Mayberry/Brown in left. Michael Martinez wilil be the main man off the bench, both Schneider and Valdez back for depth. I also believe the club may look at bringing in a big bopper-type veteran bat to come off the bench, though they may start the season as-is and try to add that in-season.

In 2012, your rotation will be the same as this year: Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Oswalt, Worley. You might see Joe Blanton and/or Kyle Kendrick back if the decision is made not to keep Oswalt. You also might see one or both of them dealt away. Hard to imagine the club bringing all 7 back again if healthy. The pen will be Contreras, Bastardo, Stutes, Schwimer and Herndon, and I believe the club either brings back Madson, or signs a proven shutdown free agent closer such as Jonathan Papelbon or Heath Bell.

You will definitely be saying goodbye for good to Raul Ibanez and the werewolf chants. I wouldn't expect to see Ross Gload coming back either. I also wouldn't expect to see Ruben Amaro Jr pull another rabbit out of his hat this winter. His most important work will be signing Hamels to a longterm extension, and making the difficult Rollins, Madson, and Oswalt decisions.

The Philadelphia Phillies won the NL East in 2007, and have now won the division title five straight years. They won the World Series in 2008, and have won more regular season games each year since winning that crown. They have proven to be a great team. But a combination of age and contracts are catching up to them, at least to the point where change will come. They have shown to this point that they can weather the changes and keep on winning and contending, but this will most definitely be the most interesting winter yet.

NOTE: After the writing of this article, it was learned that an injury suffered by Ryan Howard in last night's Game #5 loss was possibly one that will keep him out for all or a significant portion of the 2012 season. If that is the case, Mayberry is your 1st baseman, Brown gets a full shot in left field, and it may mean new life for Ben Francisco if the Phils want a platoon or depth option. More needs to be learned about Howard's injury going forward, but this one hurts - literally and figuratively.