MLB 2019 Power Ranking: August 15

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David Peralta , Eduardo Escobar and Dbacks don't celebrate enough

The Philadelphia Phillies find themselves once again at 14th overall in the 2019 MLB Power Rankings as we reach the heart of the dog days of August.

Five clubs will make the playoffs from the National League. Each division champion will be joined by a pair of Wildcard teams. 

In this August 15 version of the Power Rankings, while the Phillies remain right where they were back on August 1 among all teams in Major League Baseball, they have slipped a notch in the National League.

On August 1, the Phillies were the sixth-highest ranked team and were involved in a three-way tie for the two NL Wildcard spots. Now they have slipped a notch, to seventh in the NL. The standings reflect that slippage, as the club is now two games in back of the second Wildcard.

The Phillies have four games left head-to-head with the Nationals, who now control the top NL Wildcard spot, three games ahead of the Phils. Those will take place in Washington at the end of September.

The Cubs are the team in the second Wildcard spot. The Phillies have captured the first two games of a head-to-head series between the two teams, and are 4-2 against Chicago this season.  On Thursday night, the Phillies try to sweep the series and move within a game of the Cubs.

My own personal feelings never have anything to do with the MLB Power Rankings. Instead, the rank is all about actual team performance: results in the standings and statistical breakdowns.

MLB Power Rankings: Dodgers back on top to open August

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The Tampa Bay Rays have been near the top all season

The Philadelphia Phillies are as high as they have been all season in the latest 2019 MLB Power Rankings. As the month of August opens, that still only leaves them at 14th overall in Major League Baseball.

However, while they rank as middle-of-the-pack in all of baseball, they are the sixth-highest ranked ball club in the National League. That means they statistically come out right about where they are in the standings, as a legitimate NL Wildcard contender.

In taking a look at the landscape of contenders over the final eight weeks of the regular season, the Phillies are likely going to have to beat out the division-rival Washington Nationals and whichever team finishes as runners-up in the NL Central Division, the Chicago Cubs or Saint Louis Cardinals.

The Nationals made a series of moves to shore up their one glaring weakness – the bullpen – at yesterday’s MLB trade deadline. The Cubs added a big bat in Nicholas Castellanos.

In looking ahead at the schedule, the Phillies have just four games left head-to-head with the Nationals. Those will take place in Washington at the end of September in the club’s final road series of the year. Having met 14 times already, the Nationals have taken nine games from the Phillies, who would need a sweep of that final series to gain a 9-9 split.

The Cubs will come to Citizens Bank Park for three games in the middle of August. The Phillies and Cubs have already split four games at 2-2 this season. The Phillies are done with the Cardinals, having won four of six games between the two teams.

My own personal feelings never have anything to do with the MLB Power Rankings published here at Phillies Nation. Instead, the rank is all about actual team performance: results in the standings and statistical breakdowns.

I take what I have found to be key statistical categories and rank each of the 30 teams in Major League baseball on their ability to win ball games and perform on offense, the pitching mound, and in the field. There is never any subjectivity on my part.

The MLB Power Rankings are updated here at Phillies Nation on roughly the 1st and 15th of the month for the remainder of the regular season using the following methodology.

Former Twins closer Blake Parker added to Phillies bullpen mix

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Blake Parker adds closing experience to Phillies bullpen mix

In their continuing search for upgrades to help their inconsistent bullpen, the Philadelphia Phillies signed former Minnesota Twins closer Blake Parker on Tuesday. He is expected to be in uniform for the series opener with the San Francisco Giants at Citizens Bank Park.

Parker is a 34-year-old native of Arkansas. The right-hander was selected by the Chicago Cubs with their 16th round pick in the 2006 MLB Draft out of the University of Arkansas and reached the big-leagues with the Cubs in 2012.

In 2015, after pitching with the Cubs over parts of the previous three seasons, Parker missed most of the year after undergoing elbow surgery due to ‘loose bodies’ in his right pitching elbow. He then signed with the Seattle Mariners, who used him for just one game before releasing him in August 2016.

Parker was quickly signed by the New York Yankees, appearing in 16 games over the last two months of that 2016 campaign. He would finally get a full, healthy shot at a bullpen role with the Los Angeles Angels in 2017 and excelled.

Over two seasons with the Angels in 2016-17, Parker registered 22 saves with a 2.90 ERA over 138 games. He allowed 103 hits over 133.2 innings with a 156/35 K:BB.

The Twins signed him to a one-year, $1.8 million free agent contract back in January. With Minnesota, Parker pitched in 37 games this year. He saved 10 games, allowing 34 hits over 36.1 innings with a 34/16 K:BB.

Parker had a rough patch from late-May through early-June. However, over a dozen games between June 15 and July 20, Parker allowed 13 hits over 13.1 innings with a 15/5 K:BB. During that stretch he posted a 1.35 ERA, allowing just one home run.

That led up to what would be his final outing in a Twins uniform, and it was a bad one. Against the New York Yankees at Target Field exactly one week ago tonight (Tuesday), Parker was beaten up, allowing four earned runs on three hits and a walk in just 1/3 of an inning.

Parker was designated for assignment by the Twins, who hoped to send him to the minor leagues. However, he opted to become a free agent instead. The Phillies jumped on him, hoping that he can bring a more consistent, veteran presence to their bullpen as the club makes a run at a postseason berth over the final two months.

Originally published at Phillies Nation as "Phillies sign former Twins closer Blake Parker"

Phillies get reliever Mike Morin from Twins for cash considerations

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Phillies swapped cash to Twins for reliever Mike Morin

The Philadelphia Phillies announced a trade this morning in which the club acquired right-handed relief pitcher Mike Morin from the Minnesota Twins in exchange for cash considerations. Morin had been DFA’d by Minnesota three days ago.

Morin is a 28-year-old Minnesota native who was the Los Angeles Angels 13th round selection in the 2012 MLB Amateur Draft out of the University of North Carolina.

He broke into the big-leagues just two years later with a strong 2014 rookie performance for the Halos in which he went 4-4 with a 2.90 ERA and 1.186 WHIP. Morin pitched in 60 games that year, allowing 51 hits over 59 innings with a 54/19 K:BB.

While he wasn’t awful over the next few years, Morin was never able to repeat that same level of performance, and he was released in the summer of 2017. The Kansas City Royals picked him up, but Morin was ineffective over a half-dozen September appearances with the Royals.

Waived by Kansas City, Morin was selected by the Seattle Mariners in December of 2017. He would make just three big-league appearances for Seattle in the 2018 season, though he pitched well over 41 appearances (including three starts) with the Mariners Triple-A affiliates at Tacoma in the Pacific Coast League.

Morin was granted free agency this past off-season and the Twins signed him to a $750k deal for the 2019 season. Prior to being designated for assignment earlier this week, Morin was enjoying a solid but unspectacular season as a deep arm in the first-place Minnesota bullpen.

Morin appeared in 23 games for the Twins this year, producing 3.18 ERA, 4.50 FIP and 0.971 WHIP marks. He allowed 20 hits, including three home runs, over 22.2 innings with an 11/2 K:BB ratio.

The righty normally brings his fastball in the 90-92 MPH range. However, he is not a strikeout pitcher by any measure. Morin primarily utilizes a sinker and an effective changeup to keep hitters off balance and induce ground balls, a repertoire that could actually play well at Citizens Bank Park.

MLB 2019 Power Rankings: Minnesota Twins take over the top spot

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The Minnesota Twins outfielders celebrate another victory

The Philadelphia Phillies have sat pretty much right in the middle of the MLB Power Rankings since I began producing them for 2019.

From June 1 (15th), through June 15 (14th) and on to July 1, when they ranked in the #18 slot the last time around, the rankings have not revealed much movement at all.

The Phillies currently sit in the #16 spot, buoyed by their defensive play, which ranks fourth in all of baseball. With a middling (15th) offense, what is truly weighing the club down and keeping them from seriously competing is their 25th ranked pitching staff.

As always, my own personal feelings have nothing to do with the MLB Power Rankings published here at Phillies Nation. Instead, the rank is all about actual results and statistical performances.

There is never any subjectivity on my part. I always take key statistics and rank each of the 30 teams in Major League baseball on their ability to actually win ball games as well as their performance on offense, on the pitching mound, and in the field.

The MLB Power Rankings are going to be updated at Phillies Nation on roughly the 1st and 15th of the month for the remainder of the regular season using the following methodology.

RANKINGS METHODOLOGY

Introduced and then upgraded during the course of last season, my formula for compiling the rankings is always being researched to see if it can be improved upon. That formula carries two categories over from the 2018 season: winning percentage and OPS against. The first is simple, reflecting each team’s ability to actually win ball games. The second reflects a pitching staff’s ability to control damage.

As of my first ranking in this 2019 season, runs-per-game replaced simple “runs scored” in order to get the offensive component. This acknowledged the fact that teams play various numbers of games as of the time of each ranking. It wouldn’t be fair to consider a club that had scored 100 runs over 50 games as effective as a club who scored 100 runs over just 45 games.

There has now been a new update to the methodology. The new defensive metric will be the “Defensive runs saved” as measured at Fangraphs, replacing simple “fielding percentage” to gauge a team’s defensive competence.

I then assign each of those component category team rankings a 1-30 numerical value and simply add those values up to determine an overall final ratings score. Where there was a tie, it is broken by win-loss percentage, then by runs-per-game, followed by pitching OPS.

MLB Power Rankings: Houston Astros take over the top spot on June 15

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Houston Astros take over top spot with the June 15 rankings

When my first MLB Power Rankings for the 2019 season were released two weeks ago on June 1, I took some guff from a couple of Phillies fans who thought that I was nuts for ranking the club in the #15 slot.

At the time, the Phillies were in first place in the National League East Division, leading the Atlanta Braves by two games. But the Braves came out three places above the Phillies, ranking in the #12 slot. My own personal feelings have nothing to do with it. Instead, it’s all about the results and the statistics. Those rarely prove wrong over the long haul.

As with last season when I began this evaluation process, there will be no subjectivity on my part. I take the key statistics and rank teams based on their ability to actually win ball games as well as their performance on offense, on the pitching mound, and in the field.

The MLB Power Rankings will be updated here at Phillies Nation roughly every two weeks for the remainder of the regular season using the below methodology.

RANKINGS METHODOLOGY

Introduced and then upgraded during the course of last season, my formula for compiling the rankings gets another tweak to begin this year. By the end of 2018, I was researching each of the 30 MLB teams current position in the four categories of winning percentage, runs scored, pitching OPS, and fielding percentage.

This year, runs-per-game will be replacing simple runs scored to get the offensive component. I then assign each of those component category team rankings a 1-30 value and add them up to determine an overall final ratings score. Where there was a tie, it was broken by W-L percentage, then by runs-per-game, followed by pitching OPS.

2019 MLB Power Ranking: Los Angeles Dodgers control top spot on June 1

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Two-time defending NL champion Dodgers at top of rankings

When my final 2018 MLB Power Rankings were released eight months ago on October 1, 2018, the Phillies were tied with the Cincinnati Reds at 21st overall. With these first 2019 rankings, they are in a higher slot – but perhaps not as high as one might think.

The work done by general manager Matt Klentak this past off-season with the support of principal owner John Middleton was significant, resulting in a greatly improved everyday lineup. It is those additions and changes which have elevated the Phillies to the top of the NL East Division standings.

Still, there is much to be done in order for the club to make themselves a true World Series contender. Just as with last year’s mid-season bolt to the top of the division, the 2019 Phillies have once again largely outplayed their statistics.

How the Phillies brain trust addresses the needs on the mound and in bench depth will determine just how far this team can go as the summer of 2019 unfolds over the next few months.

A LOOK BACK AT THE 2018 PHILLIES

Last season, the Phillies spent much of July at the top of those NL East standings. However, they never ranked higher than 16th in my MLB Power Rankings. Here was my final October 1, 2018 evaluation of their season, and my commentary on what they needed to do in order to rise in the 2019 standings and rankings:

“…the Phillies were never better than a middle-of-the-pack ball club from a statistical perspective.

Second, you can also see that the team plummeted down five places over the final month. Any Phillies fan who sat through the last two months can understand why.

Finally, a look over the full rankings shows that the Phillies finished just fourth among the five National League East Division teams. In fact, when looking at the numbers behind the rankings, the club finished just ahead of Miami as well.

The 2018 Philadelphia Phillies finished in the middle-of-the-pack as far as the overall MLB standings are concerned. Their pitching staff was competitive enough to be ranked in the middle as well.

It was the club’s 29th-ranked defense and 21st-ranked offense that held them back. It will be the job of Phillies management and ownership to fix the position-player mix in the coming off-season if they want to truly become a contending team in the 2019 campaign.”

First lineup changes of the season for Phillies as J.T. Realmuto gets a rest

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Andrew Knapp gets his first start of the season behind the plate

It’s one of the most commonly used and recognized phrases in the English language, understandable to anyone who hears it uttered: if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

Phillies manager Gabe Kapler has lived by that mantra over the first week of the 2019 Major League Baseball season. For the first six games the skipper has run out the exact same starting lineup. The Phillies have responded with a 5-1 record, with an average of 8.2 runs scored per game.

But it was only a matter of time before an injury or the need to give someone a blow would necessitate a change, and that first starting lineup comes today. It’s a fairly subtle change, however, one that should not be unexpected.

Kapler’s lineup for Saturday afternoon’s Interleague game against the visiting Minnesota Twins at Citizens Bank Park will see Andrew Knapp receiving his first start of the year behind the plate. That gives starting catcher J.T. Realmuto a needed break for a day game following a night game.

In order to keep the best all-around catcher in the game today fully healthy over the course of a long six-month season, Kapler is going to need to pick and choose these types of opportunities to give his starting backstop a rest. Fans should expect that Realmuto is going to get a couple of dozen of these breaks over the course of the year, or about once per week.

SATURDAY LINEUPS AND PREVIEW

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Jorge Polanco hits for 'The Cycle' but Phillies power past Twins by 10-4

Polanco hit for 'The Cycle' but Phils down Twins

The Philadelphia Phillies (5-1) toughed out a 10-4 victoryover the Minnesota Twins (4-2) on a cold, wet Friday night at Citizens Bank Park in front of a crowd of 28,021 that was obviously held down in numbers by the miserable weather conditions.

What was a light rain as the game began picked up by the middle innings. The fourth inning in particular was played in a deluge that had to remind Twins skipper Rocco Baldelli of the rain-delayed Game 5 of the 2008 World Series. Baldelli was an outfielder with the Tampa Bay Rays during that Fall Classic and his home run briefly tied that game late during the renewal of play phase.

The Phillies jumped all over Twins starter Jake Odorizzi in the bottom of the first inning. Jean Segura got it started when he doubled to right to score Andrew McCutchen, who had barely held up on a 3-2 pitch to draw a leadoff walk. One out later, Rhys Hoskins base hit scored Segura to make it a 2-0 lead.

Walks to J.T. Realmuto and Cesar Hernandez loaded the bases and then Maikel Franco cleaned them off with a little help from some shoddy Twins defense. He looped a base hit to right field and then tried to stretch it into a double. The throw to second base by Twins right fielder Jake Cave rolled away and into left field, allowing an extra run to score, putting the Phillies up by 5-0 and chasing Odorizzi.

Minnesota got two back in the top of the third when Max Kepler drilled a two-run home run to right field. But the Phillies answered with a sac fly by Hernandez to score Realmuto in the bottom of the frame getting the lead back out to 6-2.

Jorge Polanco homered to lead off the top of the 5th and Cave later singled home a run to make it a 6-4 ball game. But again, the Phillies answered right away. With two outs in the bottom of the 5th both Hernandez and Maikel Franco worked walks. That brought up pinch-hitter Aaron Altherr, who delivered an RBI double to push the Phillies lead out to 7-4.

Altherr was hitting for Pivetta, who left as the pitcher of record hoping for the bullpen to hold the lead for him. Adam Morgan started well, retiring four of five batters that he faced into the 7th inning.

Minnesota Twins visit Citizens Bank Park for first time since 2010

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First-year manager Rocco Baldelli leads the Twins into Philly

The Philadelphia Phillies (4-1) return home following a brief but eventful two-game series split with the division rival Washington Nationals down at Nationals Park in our nation’s capital earlier this week.

The pair of emotional games in D.C., especially Tuesday night’s nationally televised tilt, were important on many fronts. One was that it allowed these two teams, who many feel will battle for the NL East Division crown, to size one another up.

Another was that it allowed new Phillies superstar Bryce Harper to get the drama of returning to the place where he played the first seven seasons of his big-league career out of the way with in the early days of the season.

With that drama behind them the club can begin to focus on the lengthy six-month regular season. The Phillies should also begin to settle into much more of a normal baseball routine now as well. After experiencing three off-days over the first week there will be just two more over the rest of the month of April.

MINNESOTA TWINS COME TO TOWN

The Phillies welcome in the Minnesota Twins (4-1) of the American League Central Division for the first interleague series of the 2019 campaign. The two teams have not met since a three-game set at Target Field in Minnesota back in June of 2016, and this is their first series against one another at Citizens Bank Park since June of 2010. The Twins hold a 10-8 edge in the all-time series between the clubs.

Minnesota has won three in a row entering this series to take an early lead in that AL Central Division race. Each of their last two victories have come thanks to late inning rallies in Kansas City.

Despite the retirement of popular hometown franchise icon Joe Mauer, the Twins were a popular choice among many preseason pundits as a surprise American League playoff contender.

Carlos Santana trade to the Twins may make most sense for Phillies

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Speculation on a Santana trade is increasing with the Twins a logical destination

Much speculation has developed in recent days that the Philadelphia Phillies could be looking to deal away first baseman Carlos Santana.

While I had previously pushed that possibility here at Phillies Nation, the notion gained real traction with a report earlier this week from MLB insider Ken Rosenthal that the Phillies were “shopping the hell” out of Santana.

It should be fairly obvious as to why the Phillies would be trying to move on from this player and contract. Spending $40 million over the next two years for a 33-34 year old whose best position is also best for your top current offensive player, Rhys Hoskins, seems to make little sense.

But with that in mind, are there any teams out there for whom Santana would make sense? Where might Phillies GM Matt Klentak look to find a match in such a trade?

Tim Dierkes at MLB Trade Rumors examined the situation in detail today and came up with a case for 14 different teams, nearly half of the clubs in Major League Baseball, to add Santana to their mix.

In breaking down Santana himself as a player, the limited number of teams who are probably actually looking to add such a player, the financial situations of the other ball clubs, and the other available options on the market, Dierkes made the following observation:

“…in reality there are enough cheaper alternatives on the market that the Phillies will have to kick in at least $10MM, or else take back a contract or attach a prospect.”

Less than a handful of teams would appear to actually make sense in such a deal. A genuine case can be made that a match could be found with the Houston Astros, Tampa Bay Rays, Chicago White Sox, and Minnesota Twins.

As Dierkes pointed out in his piece, Joe Mauer has retired and Logan Morrison is now a free agent. Those two combined to handle 140 games at the first base position in Minnesota in the 2018 season.

Minnesota has just $24.5 million in guaranteed contracts on the books for next season, and none at all in 2020. Cots Contracts estimates the Twins payroll for next season to reach just past the $70 million mark, and then drop precipitously in the 2020 campaign.

With the team’s payroll having exceeded the $100 million mark in six of the last eight seasons, peaking at nearly $129 million last year, Minnesota can certainly afford the Santana contract. At the very least they could afford half of the deal, which would help the Phillies financial situation.

Pedro Florimon dropped from Phillies 40-man roster as team prepares for Hot Stove season

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Florimon played parts of the last two seasons with the Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies announced that infielder Pedro Florimon has been outrighted from the 40-man roster. He cleared waivers and has been officially placed for now with the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs.

Florimon has a little more than two years official MLB service time accrued. However, he has also been waived three prior times in his career. Unless some agreement is struck with the team, the 31-year-old will become a free agent.

A native of the Dominican Republic, Florimon originally signed with the Baltimore Orioles organization in 2004 as a teenager. He got his first big-league cup of coffee with the Orioles in September 2011 but was then placed on waivers and claimed by the Minnesota Twins.

With Minnesota, Florimon appeared in 43 games in the 2012 season. Then in 2013 he became a regular for the lone time in his MLB career, appearing in 133 games as the Twins starting shortstop. He slashed just .221/.281/.330 with 15 stolen bases across 446 plate appearances that season.

Over the next three years, Florimon played as a backup infielder with both Minnesota and the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Phillies then signed him as a free agent in December 2016, and then again last November.

In parts of two seasons with the Phillies, Florimon slashed .274/.320/.444 with two homers and 11 RBI. He also stole one base and scored 19 runs across 125 plate appearances over 65 games.

Florimon appeared in 21 games at shortstop this past season with the Phillies. He also played in four games at second base, one at third base, one in center field, and four games in right field.

On two occasions this year, Gabe Kapler used Florimon on the mound. During a 15-2 rout at the hands of the Braves in Atlanta on March 31, Florimon pitched the bottom of the 8th inning, surrendering a two-run homer to Lane Adams.

During a 12-4 defeat to the Cardinals in Saint Louis on May 18, Florimon retired the side in order in the bottom of the 8th inning. He then stepped up to the plate in the top of the 9th and drilled a home run.

The Phillies now have just 35 players on their official 40-man roster. Three or four of the openings can be expected to be filled by some combination of prospects Adonis Medina, Tom Eshelman, Arquimedes Gamboa, and Daniel Brito, all of whom would need to be protected from the Rule 5 Draft in December.

That would leave one opening for a new player, either added via free agency or acquired via trade. Of course, the Phillies can always make more room by releasing even more players should the need arise.

The most likely players to go could include pitchers Drew Anderson and Yacksel Rios and infielder Mitch Walding. If they are unsuccessful in finding a trade partner, you may see veteran infielder Cesar Hernandez non-tendered at some point down the road this winter.

With the release of Florimon, the Phillies have made just the first of what promise to be a number of roster moves this off-season. While this one was relatively minor, we should expect at least a couple more significant moves coming down the pike.

Originally published at Phillies Nation as "Phillies begin clearing roster space by outrighting Pedro Florimon"

2018 Twins provide lesson and warning for the 2019 Phillies

Paul Molitor, Minnesota Twins manager
(Photo by Paul Morse via Wiki Commons)

In 2016 the Minnesota Twins finished with a record of 59-103. It was the worst record in all of Major League Baseball. But the following year the Twins shocked many with an 85-77 season and an American League Wildcard playoff berth.

That 2017 Twins team of a year ago were led by a number of exciting young players such as 24-year-old third baseman Miguel Sano, 23-year-old center fielder Byron Buxton, 25-year-old left fielder Eddie Rosario, and 24-year-old right fielder Max Kepler.

On the mound the Twins received a major boost when 23-year-old rookie right-hander Jose Berrios entered their starting rotation in the middle of May. Another rookie, 24-year-old Adalberto Mejia, provided the club with 21 mostly solid starting outings.

There were key veteran contributions mixed in from players such as Brian Dozier (30), Ervin Santana (34), Kyle Gibson(29), closer Brandon Kintzler (32), Minnesota native and favored son Joe Mauer (34), and even 44-year-old pitcher Bartolo Colon.

Though AL Manager of the Year Paul Molitor‘s club went down to the powerful New York Yankees in the AL Wildcard Game, they had set the stage for what appeared to be a regular run of contending seasons.

And then the 2018 season got underway. Injuries and poor performances plagued key youngsters Sano and Buxton all year. A Gold Glover last season, Dozier slumped in his free agency year and was dealt to the Los Angeles Dodgers at the July trade deadline. Kepler didn’t necessarily regress, he just failed to step up.

The struggles throughout the lineup have produced a 66-78 season that can be considered nothing less than a disappointment.

In the 2017 season the Philadelphia Phillies went 66-96, the third-worst record in Major League Baseball. It marked a fifth consecutive losing campaign from the Phillies, and the club’s third last-place finish in the division in four years.

But then the 2018 season got underway and the club appeared improved. They jumped to a 16-9 start by April 27, and then to 29-20 by May 26. By the MLB All-Star Game break the Phillies were at 53-42 and had taken over first place in the NL East.

On July 26, a third straight win pushed them to what would be a season-high 2.5 game lead in the division. Continuing to fight through ups and downs as they tried to learn how to win, the Phillies reached their apex on August 5 when a fifth consecutive victory raised their record to 15 games over the .500 mark at 63-48.

Since August 17, when back-to-back wins left them still 14 games above .500, the Phillies have collapsed. In the past month the club has gone just 6-16, and losses in eight of their last 10 games have virtually eliminated them from the postseason conversation.

However, there is no denying that this is going to be considered a step forward season for the Phillies. They are going to finish 10 or more games better in the standings than a year ago. They will be at or near the .500 mark for the first time since 2012 and could have their first winning season since the record-setting 2011 club.

Though they won’t reach the postseason as the Twins did a year ago, they will in many ways have replicated Minnesota’s worst-to-first climb.