My 2019 IBWAA Baseball Hall of Fame ballot

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Former Phillies star Jim Thome was among those voted into the HOF last year

As a lifetime member of the IBWAA (Internet Baseball Writers Association), I have the honor of being involved in the organization’s annual Hall of Fame voting process. This is my fifth year with a ballot, and my selections were turned in about two weeks ago.

The IBWAA voting process does not earn a player a plaque at Cooperstown. It does, however, allow a group of well-informed voters to express their opinion as to which players are deserving of the ultimate honor for their baseball career. You can consider it a formal endorsement from baseball writers and bloggers who represent dozens of internet sites.

I had decided over the last couple of years to break my ballot down into three segments. “Hall of Fame” players are those who, for me, are obvious, or whom I evaluated from previous years and decided were worthy.

“Future Consideration” names are not so obvious to me, but are strong enough candidates that I will continue to evaluate them moving forward. Finally, “Not Hall of Famer” guys are those who just don’t make the cut for me and will not in the future.

In 2017, eight players received my IBWAA vote: Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Trevor Hoffman, Mike Mussina, Manny Ramirez, Ivan Rodriguez, Curt Schilling, and Larry Walker. Both Rodriguez and Vladimir Guerrero, who I had on my “Future Consideration” list that year, were voted in by the full IBWAA membership.

Last year just five returning players received my vote as a “Hall of Fame” player: Bonds, Clemens, and Schilling once again, as well as two newcomers to the ballot: Jim Thome and Chipper Jones.

On my “Future Consideration” list from the 2018 ballot were Hoffman, Mussina, Walker, Ramirez, Scott Rolen, Gary Sheffield, Billy Wagner, Lee Smith, Johnny Damon, Sammy Sosa, Jeff Kent, Fred McGriff, Omar Vizquel, Jamie Moyer, Andruw Jones, and Johan Santana.

The IBWAA membership honored six players in the final vote a year ago. Bonds and Clemens each finally got in, joined by Thome, CJones, Mussina, and Hoffman.

While the BBWAA only allow their eligible Hall of Fame voters to cast ballots for up to 10 players, the IBWAA has a 15-player limit. I decided after looking over the names to cast a wide ballot this year. Bottom line, I simply felt generous.

MY 2019 IBWAA BALLOT

My list for the 2019 IBWAA ballot was led by Schilling, the only player who has been a definite, no-doubt “Hall of Fame” player for me in both of the last two years but hasn’t made it as yet.

Two newcomers on this year’s ballot were considered by me to be no-doubt “Hall of Fame” players. Both Mariano Rivera and Roy Halladay thus received my vote as well.

I had decided early-on to bump up two players from last year’s “Future Consideration” list who were back on the 2019 IBWAA ballot, Walker and Rolen, to receive my vote.

Phillies Wall of Famer Jim Thome inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame

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Thome delivers his acceptance speech in Cooperstown, New York

On Sunday afternoon, retired Philadelphia Phillies star first baseman Jim Thome finds himself officially enshrined among baseball’s immortals.

Also inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame are five more superstars: Vladimir Guerrero, Trevor Hoffman, Chipper Jones, Jack Morris, and Alan Trammell.

Even though Thome played just four of his 22 big league seasons with the Phillies, his impact on the organization was considered so great that he has previously been enshrined on the club’s Wall of Fame.

Last summer, Thome joined Mike Lieberthal (2012) as the only players enshrined on the Phillies Wall of Fame who appeared in a majority of their seasons with the club during the 2000’s but who had not played with the 2008 World Series team.

Thome signed with the Phillies as a free agent following the 2002 campaign. By that time, he had become one of the most feared sluggers in the game. As a member of the Cleveland Indians, Thome had been a three-time American League all-star, a Silver Slugger winner, and a perennial MVP candidate.

The Phillies team that Thome was joining for the 2003 season was not dissimilar to the current 2018 team. After years of losing, the Phillies had spent a few seasons rebuilding and retooling their roster.

Thome was signed to become the new Phillies first baseman and help the team step up to contending status. He was also brought in to provide a drawing card as Veteran’s Stadium closed in 2003 and Citizens Bank Park opened in 2004.

In his first season, the team’s final year after 33 seasons at The Vet, Thome led the National League with 47 home runs. He finished fourth in the NL MVP vote that year for a Phillies team that led the NL Wildcard race before collapsing to lose seven of their last eight games.

The following year, Thome made the National League all-star team for what would be the lone time in his career. He banged another 42 home runs that season, finishing among the top 20 in NL MVP voting. Among the many highlights were the 400th home run of his career, which he banged in front of the home fans in South Philly.

He would be honored following that 2004 season with the Lou Gehrig Memorial Award given to a player who best exemplifies strong character both on and off the field.

That Phillies team turned it on down the stretch this time, finishing the season with a 21-8 record after September 1. But again, it wasn’t enough to land a playoff berth.

His third season with the Phillies would prove to be abbreviated. It would also lead directly to a change that would have reverberations for the Phillies ultimate fortunes, and for the rest of his own career.

My 2018 IBWAA Hall of Fame Ballot

Thome and Jones among five to receive my 2018 HOF vote

This past year marked a major change in direction as far as my baseball writing was concerned. For the previous three years, I wrote almost exclusively on the national pastime.

As the Fall of 2017 arrived, I decided to return to writing across the broader spectrum of politics, religion, entertainment, and social issues.

Baseball is always going to hold a special place in my heart and life, especially in regards to my hometown Philadelphia Phillies.

For anyone who has enjoyed my baseball writing in the past, rest easy. I am going to continue writing on the sport here at my website from time to time. You can enjoy those pieces, including all from the past, by clicking on the "Baseball" category from the website toolbar.

As a lifetime member of the IBWAA (Internet Baseball Writers Association), I have the honor of being involved in the organization's annual Hall of Fame voting process. This was my fourth year with a ballot, and my selections were returned just this past week.

The IBWAA voting process does not earn a player a plaque at Cooperstown. It does, however, allow another block of informed voters to express their opinion as to which players are deserving of that ultimate career honor. You can consider it a formal endorsement from the Internet baseball writers and bloggers.

A year ago for the 2017 IBWAA Hall of Fame voting, I broke down my ballot into three categories: Hall of Famers, Under Future Consideration, and Not Hall of Famer. I am doing the same for this piece on the 2018 ballot, and will continue that process into the future.

There were 31 eligible players on last year's 2017 ballot. Eight of those players received my vote as a Hall of Famer: Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Trevor Hoffman, Mike Mussina, Manny Ramirez, Ivan Rodriguez. Curt Schilling, and Larry Walker.

Rodriguez and Vladimir Guerrero, who was on my "Future Consideration" list a year ago, were each voted in by the IBWAA in 2017. Both players received 175 votes (84.54%) to gain the honor of our HOF endorsement. Mussina, Hoffman, Bonds, and Clemens all received more than 70% of the vote, falling just short of the 75% requirement for endorsement.

This year, I was more frugal with my own vote, casting a ballot for just five players. In doing so, I left off three players who received my vote a year ago: Walker, Ramirez, and Hoffman. 

Frankly, I don't really enjoy taking a vote away from these players. It's not that I no longer feel they are worthy. I made a personal decision this year to "tier" my deserving choices. The five players who did receive my vote are, for me, clearly ahead of those three.

A year ago there were 31 players on the ballot. After voting for eight, I listed another seven under consideration, and rated 16 as not deserving. You can see here that the number of players who I will be considering in the future has grown considerably.

There are three videos accompanying this piece. I would recommend that you view each of them for more information on the HOF 2018 nominees and process. The middle video on Schilling's worthiness is particularly revealing. 

Here is my breakdown of the 2018 IBWAA Hall of Fame ballot. You will also absolutely have your own opinions, and I would love to hear them. Among the below nominees who were on the 2018 IBWAA ballot, which would receive your vote to the Baseball Hall of Fame?

Just One Sure-Fire First Ballot Hall of Famer Each of Next Three Years

There is a great deal of discussion taking place right now in regards to voting on Baseball Hall of Fame ballots.

A number of truly worthy candidates are on this year’s ballot, players who should absolutely find themselves enshrined one day. 

These include the greatest player who I ever saw in person, Barry Bonds. He still may fall just short this year as voters continue to evaluate his PED usage.

There would appear to be four men at the current time who stand a reasonable chance of gaining enshrinement in the summer of 2017.

When results of the BBWAA voting are released in three weeks we could very well find as many as four players elected. 

Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines, Trevor Hoffman, and Ivan Rodriguez each could gain that measure of baseball immortality.

Of those players, only Rodriguez is a first ballot nominee, and the result for ‘Pudge’ is likely to be a close one.

There's An MLB Draft Too?

There is always a great deal of publicity and conversation in the sports world regarding the NFL Draft and even the NBA Draft process each year.

But outside of it's most die-hard fans, few others may realize that Major League Baseball also conducts it's own draft process each year.

One of the main reasons that the NFL/NBA Drafts get more publicity is the nature of those professional sports and how they break in new players. The very best, the top draftees, and even many not at the very top of the selection process, become starters or key contributors for their pro teams in their first season of play, or shortly thereafter. So a player taken 1st overall in the NFL or NBA may start and even become a star right away.

In the MLB First-Year-Player Draft, the honor of being selected, even for those in the first round at the very top of the Draft board, is just the beginning of a process of professional development through the minor league systems that frequently takes years to unfold. Most fans of a Major League team have no clue what the player taken by their favorite team in last year's Draft even looks like. In fact, many have no clue of even the name of those players.

In MLB, even the best, such as Mike Trout shown in the picture above after being selected in the 2009 MLB Draft, will take at least a couple of years to play at the Major League Baseball level. That is, assuming they make it at all. There is no more difficult task in all of sport than to hit a baseball thrown by a pro pitcher. And for those pitchers, remaining healthy is a growing challenge and concern.

A look back at four decades of MLB Draft history gives you a good picture of just how unpredictable even the very top pick, the #1 overall selection, will be as far as eventually enjoying success at the highest level. Since going to the current system in 1965, only two of those top draftees are sure-fire Hall of Famers: Ken Griffey Jr (1987) and Chipper Jones (1990), with Alex Rodriguez (1993) to be a most interesting such case one day.

Among the top draftees, a number had strong careers, making an impact on the game for a number of years, though none to that Hall-worthy level. These players include the likes of Rick Monday (65), Harold Baines (77), Darryl Strawberry (80), and a handful of others.

In more recent years, only Joe Mauer (01) is likely to even be in the Hall of Fame conversation at this point. For players such as David Price (07), Stephen Strasburg (09), and Bryce Harper (10), all former top overall selections of recent vintage, it is way too early to even speculate on their talents translating into the longterm success needed to reach the Hall of Fame.

On the flip side, there have been many more notable "busts" selected with the #1 pick than there have been even eventual All-Star selections. Among those forgettable players selected first overall are Steve Chilcott (66), Dave Roberts (72), David Clyde (73), Al Chambers (79), Shawn Abner (84), Paul Wilson (94), Matt Anderson (97), Bryan Bullington (02), Matt Bush (04), and Tim Beckham (08), none of whom made their mark.

Perhaps the best example of the #1 bust potential was catcher Danny Goodwin, selected #1 overall twice, in both 1971 out of high school by the White Sox, and again in 1974 out of college by the California Angels. Goodwin reached the Majors, and played in parts of 7 seasons. But with just a .236 career batting average and 13 career homeruns, he was never a starter.

One week from tomorrow, on Thursday evening, June 5th, the MLB Network will televise the first two rounds of the 2014 MLB First-Year Player Draft. The process was first televised for that 2009 Draft in which Trout was selected, and has grown in popularity among fans ever since. It is an extremely watchable show, presented exceptionally well by the MLB folks.

Among the top prospects this year are high school pitchers Brady Aiken and Tyler Kolek, college pitchers Carlos Rodon, Sean Newcomb, and Aaron Nola, high school shortstop Nick Gordon, college shortstop Trea Turner, high school catcher Alex Jackson, and college outfielder Michael Conforto. There is a high probability that, in some order, these prospects will be among the top 10-12 players selected.

Whomever is picked first overall, history says that the odds are good that they will eventually reach the Big Leagues. They most certainly will get a big payday on signing their first professional contract, which will be for anywhere from $2-7 million dollars. So it will be a happy day full of promise for these players and their families.

However, history also says that the odds of whomever is picked with the #1 overall selection having longterm success at the Major League level are long, and that the odds of their becoming a Hall of Famer are only at about 5% at best. The excitement for the teams and players involved will be just the beginning of a long process that will yield mixed results.

If you are even a marginal fan of our National Pastime, make plans to sit down and enjoy the 2014 MLB First-Year Player Draft with coverage beginning at 6pm next Thursday on the MLB Network with an hour-long preview show, followed by hours of coverage on the network of those first couple of rounds. It will be a night filled with interesting information on the possible stars of tomorrow.

MLB 2011: National League



Call them what you like, because they've had 'em all hung on them at one time or another over this past winter. The "Phab Four", the "Four Aces", the "Four Horsemen", whatever. Just as long as Charlie Manuel can call on them every fifth day, the Philadelphia Phillies will win their 5th straight N.L. East crown and their 3rd National League pennant in four years before falling in one of the best World Series in decades to the Boston Red Sox. At least that's the call here.

I'll cover the Fightin' Phils and all the specific reasons in my next article here in the coming days. Let's spend some time talking about who will be doing the chasing, and who can take their place should those injury woes become overwhelming. Last year I said that the Atlanta Braves might be the one team that could give the Phils a run for their money in the N.L. East, and I was right on there. In Bobby Cox' final season at the helm, Atlanta stayed with the Phils for most of the season, even leading the division for awhile, and made it into the playoffs as the N.L. Wildcard before bowing to the eventual pennant-winning Giants in a tough playoff series.

The Braves may have an intimidating lineup if everything goes right. If Chipper Jones stays healthy. If rookie 1st sacker Freddie Freeman is a Rookie of the Year contender. If their young rotation and bullpen arms all hold up and produce. With newcomer Dan Uggla and catcher Brian McCann joining last year's phenom Jason Heyward, the Braves should again contend for the division and playoff races.

Phillies Are Now Slump Proof

Throughout the stretch run of the 2010 season and again in at least both the 2011 and 2012 seasons, given reasonable health, the Philadelphia Phillies will remain a contending baseball team.

They will remain so because their trade deadline acquisition of right-handed starting pitcher Roy Oswalt has now made them virtually slump-proof.

Every team will go through slumps during the course of a 6-month long, 162-game season. The slumps will come because the team doesn't hit collectively on a consistent basis.

The slumps come because injuries hit. Sometimes, as with this year's Phillies team, those injuries occur to multiple key players at the same time.

They come at times because there is simply not enough pitching, and bad pitching gets beaten up by good professional hitters.

The one thing that can make a team 'slump-proof', or much more unlikely and infrequently than other teams to a slump or multiple slumps during a long season, is the presence of consistently strong starting pitching.

The Phillies now run three true ace starting pitchers at other teams: Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, and Roy Oswalt. The odds that all three will lose their respective turn through the rotation are long. The odds that will happen twice in a row are even longer.

Most teams want to have what is known as an 'ace', or a 'stopper'. A true 'ace' is a top-of-the-line starting pitcher, one of the perhaps twenty best starters in the entire game.

MLB 2009: National League

Unlike the American League, which I covered in yesterday's entry and which is dominated by three teams, the National League pennant race in MLB is wide open. This is both good news and bad for our own Phillies. The bad news is that there are a lot of pretty good teams in the NL that the Phils will have to battle if they want to repeat as National League champions. The good news is that the Phils are one of them, and there is no team that is clearly superior to our defending World Series champs. Tomorrow will be devoted specifically to covering those Phils, but in starting out with the NL East race, let's just say that the Phils match up well with every team, and are better than most. They and the Mets are fairly even, though I still like the Phillies top-to-bottom lineup, their bench, and the depth in their bullpen better than New York. Those Mets will be a strong contender with a lineup that features one of the best young players and leaders in the game in 3rd baseman David Wright and one of the game's most exciting players in speedy shortstop Jose Reyes. Veteran bats like the two Carlos', Delgado and Beltran, provide run-producing pop as well. The rotation is headed by all-world lefty Johan Santana, but has a bunch of question marks after him. The Mets arguably would have won the division the past two years, and possibly a World Series of their own, if they just were able to finish out close games with their bullpen. They finally met that need this off-season by signing record-setting closer Francisco 'KRod' Rodriguez, and yet another closer to back him up in J.J. Putz. If they stay healthy, the Mets will not blow many 9th inning leads this time around. But this time the race will not stop at just the Phils and Mets. It seems like every 5-6 years or so the Florida Marlins accumulate enough strong young talent to become serious contenders, and this is possibly one of those years. Their middle infield of 2nd baseman Dan Uggla and shortstop Hanley Ramirez rivals the Phils' own middle of Utley-Rollins as the best in baseball. They have a future all-star in Cameron Maybin about to burst on the scene in their outfield. And their young pitching has depth and talent that is the envy of every team outside of Tampa. The Fish are a couple bats short, and their bullpen is not good enough to overtake the Phils and Mets. But they will make it interesting much of the year, as will the Atlanta Braves. Perhaps no team but the Yankees improved their starting pitching rotation more than the Bravos this off-season. Atlanta added four solid veterans in Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez, Japanese import Kenshin Kawakami, and future Hall of Famer Tom Glavine. They team with youngster Jair Jurrjens to give the Braves the best rotation in the east, assuming these guys stay healthy. The Braves lineup has good young parts led by catcher Brian McCann, but the key to contending will be the health of veteran leader Chipper Jones (pictured). If the Braves get a full season out of him, and if both outfielders Jeff Francoeur and Garret Anderson produce, the Braves could seriously challenge the top two teams. I am going to call it in this order: Phils, Mets, Braves, Marlins, Nationals. In the NL Central, most prognosticators are picking the Chicago Cubs, as well as installing the Cubbies as favorites for the NL pennant and a trip to the World Series. There are plenty of reasons to like them starting with a talented and varied offense that includes Alfonso Soriano, Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, and Geovanny Soto. In the off-season the Cubs signed mercurial outfielder Milton Bradley. I am going to install him as a dark-horse MVP candidate, because if he can stay healthy he has the talent to be a difference-maker for this team. The Cubs have depth and talent in both their rotation and bullpen, but that rotation could easily be set back by injuries. If Rich Harden and Carlos Zambrano hold up, the Cubs should win the NL Central. But hot on their heels could well be either or both of the Milwaukee Brewers, whose offense led by Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun matches up with anyone, or the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cards have the mighty Albert Pujols back and at full strength, and that is truly scary since he won the NL MVP a year ago during a season in which he was injured. They also get back from injury a pair of arms in Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright, and these guys staying healthy all year will be the key to the Cards staying with the Cubbies. Out in the NL West we can just refer to this as 'Manny Land', because the Dodgers' superstar and future Hall of Famer will be the key to this race. If his head is on straight and he is at full health, Manny will be Manny, and he will lead Joe Torre's troops to another division title. With a vastly improved middle infield of Orlando Hudson and Rafael Furcal, and with returning young bats in Russ Martin, James Loney, Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier, this lineup could contend even without Ramirez. Beyond young ace Chad Billingsley, who still has to prove he can carry that mantle, and strong closer Jonathan Broxton, the Dodgers pitching staff is uncharacteristically full of question marks. Right on their heels will be the Arizona Diamondbacks led by the pitching troika of Brandon Webb-Dan Haren-Randy Johnson. With strong young bats like Justin Upton, Stephen Drew, and Conor Jackson, and a deep pitching staff, this team could very well unseat the Dodgers. The pick here is for those Dodgers bats to hold off the DBacks pitching edge, but it could be very close. Behind the division-winning Phillies, Cubs, and Dodgers the other contenders in New York, Atlanta, Milwaukee, and Arizona should lead the Wildcard charge, and I like the DBacks to take that race. The playoff battles are going to come down to the same keys as they do every year: who is healthy and who is pitching well come October. This is just too close to call right now, but since I went this far already I'll call it a rematch of Phillies-Dodgers for the pennant, and why not pick our Phils to win it again and advance to a World Series rematch with the Rays? They have just as good a shot as anyone else, better than most. Tomorrow's article will be devoted entirely to our World Series champions.