Phillies now must buck the odds to make the playoffs

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Things have not gone as hoped in the first year of the Harper Era

For a second straight August, it all feels like it's falling apart for a Philadelphia Phillies season that once appeared destined to end in October.

The Phillies lost to the San Francisco Giants by a 3-1 score on Saturday afternoon. It was the club's fourth defeat in five games, their sixth in the last nine. They are 2-4 on a western swing through Arizona and NoCal that will end this afternoon by the bay.

This most recent losing stretch is part of a 27-35 performance since late May, one that has dropped the team from the top of the National League East Division standings into fourth place.

It's not just that the Phillies are losing in San Francisco - they aren't even showing up to play. Just three hits in yesterday afternoon's defeat. One hit in Thursday night's series opening loss to the Giants.

As recently as their postgame statements at the start of this past week, Phillies players were clinging to the hope provided by the standings. Fact was, they still controlled a National League Wildcard playoff berth. 

That is no longer the case. The Phillies woke up on Sunday morning at two games behind both the Saint Louis Cardinals and Washington Nationals in the loss column. They also trail both the Milwaukee Brewers and New York Mets in that Wildcard race.

The stats show that the Phillies have earned this position. They have a -30 run differential. They are just 18th of the 30 MLB ball clubs in runs scored per game. The pitching staff is 22nd in batting average against and 23rd in OPS against.

In short, the Phillies are not a good baseball team right now, and they haven't been one for a few months.

All of this is reflected in the updated Fangraphs MLB playoff odds. Taking a wide variety of factors into consideration, Fangraphs now ranks three teams from the NL East as having better than even odds of reaching the postseason. None of those is the Philadelphia Phillies.

The Atlanta Braves, who hold a five game lead in the loss column in the division race, have a 98.1% chance of reaching the playoffs. The second place Washington Nationals are at 67.8%. And now, the red-hot New York Mets are rated as having a 53% chance at the postseason.

The Phillies? They now have a miniscule 8.8% chance at making the playoffs. Their odds at winning a Wildcard spot are at 8.5%, and actually roaring back to win the division at just 0.3%. The Phillies odds to win the World Series are at a nearly impossible 0.1% level.

So, if the Phillies are going to reach the Major League Baseball postseason for the first time in eight years, they are going to need a major hot streak. At this point, that would be seriously bucking the odds.

Phillies continue to be stymied by failure to deliver in the clutch

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There have not been enough of these scoring celebrations in 2019

The Philadelphia Phillies just cannot seem to get on a true roll in this 2019 season. The last time that the club was 10 games above the .500 level was following a 4-1 victory over the Cincinnati Reds at Citizens Bank Park on June 8.

Since that time, the club has gone 22-27, and they have just two winning streaks of three or more games. Beginning on July 30, the Phillies began a streak, one that is still current, in which they have alternated a win with a loss.

Win. Loss. Win. Loss. Win. Loss. Win. Loss. Four times in a row now following Tuesday night’s 8-4 defeat to the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field in Phoenix.

And yet, the Phillies remain in control of a National League Wildcard playoff berth. That position in the standings is thanks to two factors. One has been that all of the other Wildcard contenders have proven to be flawed as well, at least to this point.

Another is that, while not being able to assemble a big winning streak, the Phillies have not gone into a major losing skid either. The club has not lost as many as three in a row since the middle of June. In fact, since the start of July, the Phillies have only dropped back-to-back games on three occasions.

Frankly, this team has become exasperating to many fans. They can’t win consistently, and in fact have outright blown many more than their share of potential victories, continuing to frustrate everyone following the team. But that they also don’t lose consistently has kept them tantalizingly in the race.

Sure, the bullpen has blown a number of games. But if we are honest about that factor, the Phillies pen has been in shambles due to numerous key injuries, far more than could have been expected and planned for.

At present, the following relievers are on the Injured List: David Robertson, Pat Neshek, Seranthony Dominguez, Tommy Hunter, Edubray Ramos, Victor Arano and Adam Morgan.

When the 2019 regular season opened, that was nearly the entire Phillies anticipated bullpen. Most of those relievers have missed most of the season. The problems stemming from trying to replace them on the fly, of leaning too much on arms who could not have been expected to pitch so often in the roles in which they have been used, should be expected. It may be a problem without a solution in the short term.

How long can Andy MacPhail survive as Phillies organization again ranked poorly?

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After four years, MacPhail's organization stuck in neutral

The folks at Baseball America collectively produce one of the most respected all-around resources in the game. They are well known for their prospect, draft and minor league coverage. And they also provide some of the best coverage of the deeper issues involving all aspects of the game.

Baseball America is also really good at coming up with lists and rankings. They regularly provide updated rankings lists of the top prospects in each organization. They also do overall organizational rankings as well, which reflect the state of each club’s minor league talent situation.

The Philadelphia Phillies were ranked just 23rd among the 30 big-league organizations prior to the 2019 season. Now the Baseball America organizational ranking has been updated, as they note: “taking the 2019 MLB Draft, our updated Top 100 and new team Top 30s into consideration.”

Those newly considered factors did not help the Phillies. In fact, the organization has now dropped two places, down to just 25th among 30 clubs in Major League Baseball.

Only five organizations are rated lower right now, including the division rival New York Mets just behind in the 26th spot. The Washington Nationals are just ahead of both, sitting in the #24 slot.

The Atlanta Braves embarrassment of prospect riches continues to grow. The defending NL East champions and current division leaders are now ranked in the #3 position. Meanwhile, the rebuilding Miami Marlins have entered the top ten in the #10 spot.

With third baseman Alec Bohm at #37 and pitcher Spencer Howard coming in at #68, the Phillies have just two of the current Baseball America top 100 prospects. It’s not only BA thinking poorly of the Phillies top-level minor league talent. MLB Pipeline currently has just Bohm (36) and pitcher Adonis Medina (75) among their top 100 prospects. Bohm (54), Howard (56) and Medina (71) show up among the current Fangraphs top 100 prospects.

By contrast, the Braves have a half-dozen in the Baseball America top 100, including three youngsters rated higher than Bohm. Both MLB and Fangraphs have the Braves with five on their lists, with four of those ranking higher than any Phillies prospect.

Phillies should not shut Aaron Nola down with just two starts remaining

Nola has become an ace for Phillies
(Photo: By Arturo Pardavila III via Wiki Commons)

This 2018 season has been a true breakout campaign for Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola. In his fourth year at the MLB level, Nola has shown that he can be that rarest of commodities – a true ace.

The 25-year-old right-hander was chosen by the Phillies out of Louisiana State University with their first round selection at seventh overall in the 2014 MLB Amateur Draft. As he developed professionally over parts of two minor league seasons, consensus expert opinions had him with the upside of a mid-rotation starter.

That is a fairly common tag hung on pitchers when scouts and other talent evaluators are not absolutely certain the pitcher has a top-of-the-rotation arm. However, that pitcher also has amateur and minor league performances and pitching repertoires which demonstrate a likelihood of reaching and sticking in a big-league rotation.

As a perfect example, Nathaniel Stoltz of Fangraphs summed up his own scouting report on Nola in August 2014 as follows:

“…it’s hard to see him having more than a #3 starter’s ceiling. If he settles in at a #3/#4 level quickly, that won’t be the flashiest of payoffs, but it’ll also be hard to really take issue with his selection…There’s a solid chance he could get to that level of performance, but the line between it and interchangeable back-of-the-rotation, Kyle Kendrick sort of output is fairly thin, and he’s not guaranteed to end up on the right side of it.”

Over Nola’s first two partial seasons with the Phillies, his results were indeed those of a solid #3 starter in the rotation. He went 12-11 over 33 starts during the 2015-16 campaigns, allowing 190 hits across 188.2 innings with a 189/48 K:BB ratio.

Last year, Nola reinforced that level of performance over a full season. In 27 starts during the 2017 campaign, Nola went 12-11 with 3.54 ERA and 1.208 WHIP. He allowed 154 hits over 168 innings with a 184/49 K:BB ratio.

Due to the fact that he was able to compete so effectively at just age 24, many began to adjust their evaluations up on Nola, feeling that he could develop into a solid #2 starter for a contending team.

One key for him to reach his potential was going to be for Nola to demonstrate longevity, that he could remain healthy over a full season.

His 2016 campaign was ended in mid-August when he was shut down for the year with a low-grade UCL sprain and flexor pronator tendon strain. In 2017 it was a strained lower back that kept him out of the Phillies rotation for a month from late-April through late-May.

In this 2018 campaign, Nola has ticked off all of the boxes and elevated himself to that “ace” or #1 starter level.

Following last night’s outing against the New York Mets, Nola has surrendered just 143 hits in 199.1 innings over 31 starts. He has a 16-5 record, and a dominating 210/53 K:BB ratio with a 2.44 ERA, 0.983 WHIP, 2.97 FIP, and a 173 ERA+ mark.

In his own piece on last night’s game, Corey Seidman of NBC Sports Philadelphia pointed out that no Phillies pitcher in over a century has pitched at least 200 innings in a season while holding opposition batters below a .200 average. Nola has held hitters to a .201 average over his 199.1 innings this year.

Fangraphs ranks Citizens Bank Park poorly for "walkability"

Citizens Bank Park isn't an easy place to walk to for fans
(Photo: Matthew Veasey)

If you’ve ever been to Citizens Bank Park you know that it is a gorgeous ballpark. Tremendous sight lines, a 360-degree open main concourse that allows you to have a view of the action as you walk around nearly the entirety, and some of the best ballpark food in the game.

I wax nostalgic at times for Veteran’s Stadium. After all, it was there that I was introduced at age nine to the Phillies and Major League Baseball when the glittering new facility first opened near my South Philly home back in 1971.

But even that nostalgia isn’t enough to overcome the truth, one that I recognized the very first time that I stepped foot in the new place for an exhibition game against the Cleveland Indians prior to the start of the 2004 regular season. Citizens Bank Park is better than The Vet ever was in every way imaginable.

Back in 2012 for a piece at Bleacher Report, Kyle Yahn describe it perfectly when he said: “There is not a bad seat in the entire stadium. Whether in the nosebleeds or right behind home plate, the fans are always right on top of the action” and “The food at Citizens Bank Park is incredible.”

One concession made by the powers-that-be in the Phillies ownership group and with the city of Philadelphia was the actual location of the ballpark itself.

In the pre-planning stages, there were discussions regarding and even plans drawn up regarding the possibilities of moving the new ballpark out of South Philly to locations either near Penn’s Landing along the Delaware River or adjacent to the Center City area.

Those locations would have been in walking distance of restaurants, shops, and clubs already in place. And new such spots certainly would have opened up to service ballpark patrons for Phillies games, concerts, and other events.

However, traffic and parking infrastructure was already in place at what had become known as the Sports Complex. The Vet, the Spectrum, and JFK Stadium had stood for years in the location along Pattison Avenue just east of Broad Street.

As the now Wells Fargo Center, Lincoln Financial Field, and Citizens Bank Park were planned, the final decision was made to keep each of the major sports facilities right there. As they sprouted up, the older facilities were torn down. Finally, a food and drink entertainment facility known as “Xfinity Live” was also opened up in the area.

The distance from the Sports Complex to any of Philadelphia’s neighborhoods, including to those downtown shops and restaurants, is the main reason that Fangraphs just placed Citizens Bank Park at 24th of the 30 facilities in Major League Baseball in their “Walkability” rankings.

This was a major drop from just five years ago, when Citizens Bank Park ranked 14th in that same index. This time around, CBP was given a ‘Walk Score’ of just 38. This placed it in a tier called ‘Car-Dependent’, meaning that most errands from the immediate ballpark area would require a car.

Phillies receive strong relief from rookie Victor Arano

Phillies 2018 rookie reliever Victor Arano
(Photo: Ian D'Andrea via Wiki Commons)

The Philadelphia Phillies have one of the youngest overall rosters in Major League Baseball. 

One of the more anonymous but successful of those youngsters this season has been relief pitcher Victor Arano.

A 23-year-old right-hander originally signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers out of his native Mexico back in 2013, Arano was a starter when first acquired by the Phillies as the “player to be named later” in a 2014 deal for veteran reliever Roberto Hernandez.

The Phillies converted the 6’2, 200-pound Arano to the bullpen full-time beginning in 2016. He would largely thrive in that role while rising through the minor league system over the next couple of years.

Appearing on the verge of a big-league promotion, Arano was backed up some when a UCL sprain in his right elbow sent him to the DL at the outset of the 2017 campaign.

He was able to avoid surgery, and finally received a first cup of coffee in Major League Baseball last September. Arano showed that he could get big-league hitters out during that 10-game audition, when he allowed just six hits over 10.2 innings with a 13/4 K:BB ratio.

Towards the end of last season, respected prospect evaluator John Sickels with Minor League Ball wrote up the following scouting profile on him:

“He can push his fastball as high as 96 but more commonly works around 92-94, mixing the heater with the low-to-mid-80s slider and a mid-80s change-up. While I would not describe his stuff as excellent, he mixes his pitches efficiently and usually throws strikes. He throws harder as a reliever than he did as a starter and the extra velocity improves his margin for error. Overall this is a middle relief profile but Arano is just 22 years old and has demonstrated advanced pitchability skills when he’s going well. He could have a very long career.“

Arano came north with the Phillies from spring training back in March and fared well over another 10 games. But then a mild rotator cuff strain sent him back to the DL in late April. It would take him until May 20 to get back to the Phillies, and he hasn’t left since.

During what is officially his rookie season, Arano has surrendered just 49 hits over 55 innings across 54 games. He has strong 2.45 ERA and 1.164 WHIP marks with a 70/19 K:BB ratio and three Saves.

In a piece on Arano back in early August, Stephen Loftus of Fangraphs described his journey and his season as follows:

“Arano has made a long, quiet trip to the majors. First an underrated signing, then a fringe prospect. First a mediocre starter, now a shutdown reliever. He has molded unique movement and pitchability into an effective arsenal, one that has kept major-league hitters guessing this season.”

As Phillies management begins planning the makeup of what they hope will become a truly contending 2019 roster, Arano will certainly have a place on the pitching staff.

Arano was reportedly unavailable earlier this week due to tenderness in the same right elbow that caused him to miss the start of last season. It was not believed to be serious, and sure enough the pitcher returned for a perfect inning on Thursday night.

Arano is closing his rookie season with a flourish. Appearing in eight of the Phillies 18 games since August 25, he did not surrender an earned run in any of those outings.

Not eligible for free agency until after the 2023 season, should Arano remain healthy he is likely to remain a valuable member of the Phillies bullpen for years to come.

Originally published at Phillies Nation as "Victor Arano closing his strong rookie season on a hot streak"

It's past time for the Phillies to move on from Cesar Hernandez at second base

Cesar Hernandez during 2018 season
(Photo by Keith Allison via Wiki Commons)

If you want to go ahead and say that this has been a roller coaster of a season for Phillies second baseman Cesar Hernandez then you would be on a really exaggerated summer coaster ride.

What this season has demonstrated as well as any in recent memory is exactly what I was saying about him before it even began – it’s time for him to go.

Hernandez has some of the most empty and inconsequential offensive statistics in the game, his defense is nothing special, and at age 29 next season he should not be considered a piece for a future contending Phillies ball club.

This season began with Hernandez hot. Over the Phillies first 43 games through May 19 he was slashing .282/.392/.448 with six homers, 15 RBI, 34 runs scored and nine stolen bases. That would represent the roller coaster upward climb.

Then on May 20, Hernandez wrapped up a road trip in Saint Louis by going 0-3. It was the start of that roller coaster drop-off. And unlike most roller coasters, this one would not be over quick, nor would it lead to a series of thrilling ups and downs.

From that May 20 game through nearly the entirety of summer, Hernandez’ performance would plummet through a prolonged, nauseating, lineup defeating drop.

Across 93 games through September 3, Hernandez hit just .237 with a .309 slugging percentage. Over more than twice the number of plate appearances as in his quick start he hit one fewer home run and stole one fewer base.

It’s not as if Hernandez has been playing outstanding defense. His 1,217.2 innings played is the third-most of anyone at second base in all of Major League Baseball this year. According to Fangraphs he ranks just 12th on their Advanced Defensive Index and 13th in Defensive WAR at the Keystone.

And still, manager Gabe Kapler kept writing his name into the starting lineup. Hernandez has started 138 of the Phillies 146 games through Friday night.

Hernandez made $5.1 million this season and will be arbitration-eligible this coming off-season. He will most certainly be looking for a raise, possibly to the $10+ million per year mark. He cannot become a free agent until after the 2020 season.

There will be a bevy of free agent second basemen or players who could be used at the position who will be hitting the market this winter. The list includes potentially enticing names like Brian Dozier, DJ LeMahieu, Jed Lowrie, Daniel Murphy, Ian Kinsler, and Asdrubal Cabrera. But each has already reached age 30, and all will be hoping for expensive contracts at multiple years of commitment.

With two years remaining until his own free agency, and with those years coming in his ages 29 and 30 seasons, it is entirely possible that Phillies GM Matt Klentak could convince some contending general manager to give up a young prospect with reasonable upside in a trade for Hernandez.

Jake Arrieta no longer an ace, but needs to be more consistent

Phillies need a more consistent Arrieta

The Philadelphia Phillies made the bold move to sign free agent starting pitcher Jake Arrieta early in spring training. 

You could excuse some fans of the team, starved for a winner after five bottom-dweller seasons, who thought the club had signed a Cy Young Award contending ace to front the team’s rotation.

Arrieta has indeed won those honors as the top pitcher in the National League. But that was back in 2015 when he was a 29-year-old at the top of his game pitching for the NL Central Division champion Chicago Cubs.

The right-hander went 68-31 with the Cubbies over most of five seasons from 2013-17. In that NL Cy Young campaign, he also finished sixth in the voting for the National League Most Valuable Player.

Arrieta finished in the top ten of Cy Young voting each year from 2014-16 and was both an NL All-Star and Silver Slugger Award winner in 2016 when he helped lead the Cubs to their first World Series crown in more than a century.

But again, that was in the prime of his career. The Phillies signed Arrieta to a five-year deal back in March which guaranteed him $55 million for this year and next, his ages 32 and 33 seasons.

The pitcher can opt out of the deal after next season. The Phillies can void that opt out by exercising their own options on the remainder of the contract. If they choose to do so, the club would agree to pay him $20 million each year from ages 34-36.

As reported by Todd Zolecki at MLB.com, Phillies controlling general partner John Middleton had been quoted on the organization’s strategy in approaching free agent signings and trade additions as it builds back towards contending status.

“We’re always trying to improve the team, but we’ve got to do it a way that makes sense now and next year. We don’t want to sacrifice something significant in the future by making a short-term move. Whether it’s a trade or a signing, if we get the deal we think is right, we’ll do it. We’ll pull the trigger. Money is zero object. No object whatsoever.”

It’s a pretty good deal from the Phillies perspective. The organization has had a lot of luck with veteran pitchers during their early thirties in recent years. Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Roy Oswalt are the prime examples.

In signing Arrieta, the Phillies and their fans certainly could expect to get solid performances from the pitcher both this year and next. After that, the club can gauge his performance and health, the status of the rest of the team and pitching rotation and make their decision on the 2020-22 extension.

So far this year, Arrieta has been everything they could have hoped. Including last night’s relatively poor outing, he has made 19 starts for the club. Arrieta has a 7-6 record with a 3.23 ERA and 1.223 WHIP. He has allowed 93 hits over 103 innings with a 72/33 K:BB ratio.

Those are not Cy Young contender numbers. They are not “ace” numbers. However, they are certainly solid numbers for any big league starting pitcher. 

Based on the performances of youngsters Aaron Nola and Zach Eflin, you would have to slot Arrieta in as the Phillies current number three starter. His statistical results and experience combine to give the ball club a strong option in that role.

In eight of his outings, Arrieta has pitched into or beyond the seventh inning. He has gone at least six innings in 11 of the 19 starts. More than half (10) have resulted in Quality Starts of six or more innings pitched allowing three or fewer earned runs.