2019 MLB Power Ranking: Los Angeles Dodgers control top spot on June 1

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Two-time defending NL champion Dodgers at top of rankings

When my final 2018 MLB Power Rankings were released eight months ago on October 1, 2018, the Phillies were tied with the Cincinnati Reds at 21st overall. With these first 2019 rankings, they are in a higher slot – but perhaps not as high as one might think.

The work done by general manager Matt Klentak this past off-season with the support of principal owner John Middleton was significant, resulting in a greatly improved everyday lineup. It is those additions and changes which have elevated the Phillies to the top of the NL East Division standings.

Still, there is much to be done in order for the club to make themselves a true World Series contender. Just as with last year’s mid-season bolt to the top of the division, the 2019 Phillies have once again largely outplayed their statistics.

How the Phillies brain trust addresses the needs on the mound and in bench depth will determine just how far this team can go as the summer of 2019 unfolds over the next few months.

A LOOK BACK AT THE 2018 PHILLIES

Last season, the Phillies spent much of July at the top of those NL East standings. However, they never ranked higher than 16th in my MLB Power Rankings. Here was my final October 1, 2018 evaluation of their season, and my commentary on what they needed to do in order to rise in the 2019 standings and rankings:

“…the Phillies were never better than a middle-of-the-pack ball club from a statistical perspective.

Second, you can also see that the team plummeted down five places over the final month. Any Phillies fan who sat through the last two months can understand why.

Finally, a look over the full rankings shows that the Phillies finished just fourth among the five National League East Division teams. In fact, when looking at the numbers behind the rankings, the club finished just ahead of Miami as well.

The 2018 Philadelphia Phillies finished in the middle-of-the-pack as far as the overall MLB standings are concerned. Their pitching staff was competitive enough to be ranked in the middle as well.

It was the club’s 29th-ranked defense and 21st-ranked offense that held them back. It will be the job of Phillies management and ownership to fix the position-player mix in the coming off-season if they want to truly become a contending team in the 2019 campaign.”

First lineup changes of the season for Phillies as J.T. Realmuto gets a rest

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Andrew Knapp gets his first start of the season behind the plate

It’s one of the most commonly used and recognized phrases in the English language, understandable to anyone who hears it uttered: if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

Phillies manager Gabe Kapler has lived by that mantra over the first week of the 2019 Major League Baseball season. For the first six games the skipper has run out the exact same starting lineup. The Phillies have responded with a 5-1 record, with an average of 8.2 runs scored per game.

But it was only a matter of time before an injury or the need to give someone a blow would necessitate a change, and that first starting lineup comes today. It’s a fairly subtle change, however, one that should not be unexpected.

Kapler’s lineup for Saturday afternoon’s Interleague game against the visiting Minnesota Twins at Citizens Bank Park will see Andrew Knapp receiving his first start of the year behind the plate. That gives starting catcher J.T. Realmuto a needed break for a day game following a night game.

In order to keep the best all-around catcher in the game today fully healthy over the course of a long six-month season, Kapler is going to need to pick and choose these types of opportunities to give his starting backstop a rest. Fans should expect that Realmuto is going to get a couple of dozen of these breaks over the course of the year, or about once per week.

SATURDAY LINEUPS AND PREVIEW

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Minnesota Twins visit Citizens Bank Park for first time since 2010

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First-year manager Rocco Baldelli leads the Twins into Philly

The Philadelphia Phillies (4-1) return home following a brief but eventful two-game series split with the division rival Washington Nationals down at Nationals Park in our nation’s capital earlier this week.

The pair of emotional games in D.C., especially Tuesday night’s nationally televised tilt, were important on many fronts. One was that it allowed these two teams, who many feel will battle for the NL East Division crown, to size one another up.

Another was that it allowed new Phillies superstar Bryce Harper to get the drama of returning to the place where he played the first seven seasons of his big-league career out of the way with in the early days of the season.

With that drama behind them the club can begin to focus on the lengthy six-month regular season. The Phillies should also begin to settle into much more of a normal baseball routine now as well. After experiencing three off-days over the first week there will be just two more over the rest of the month of April.

MINNESOTA TWINS COME TO TOWN

The Phillies welcome in the Minnesota Twins (4-1) of the American League Central Division for the first interleague series of the 2019 campaign. The two teams have not met since a three-game set at Target Field in Minnesota back in June of 2016, and this is their first series against one another at Citizens Bank Park since June of 2010. The Twins hold a 10-8 edge in the all-time series between the clubs.

Minnesota has won three in a row entering this series to take an early lead in that AL Central Division race. Each of their last two victories have come thanks to late inning rallies in Kansas City.

Despite the retirement of popular hometown franchise icon Joe Mauer, the Twins were a popular choice among many preseason pundits as a surprise American League playoff contender.

2018 Twins provide lesson and warning for the 2019 Phillies

Paul Molitor, Minnesota Twins manager
(Photo by Paul Morse via Wiki Commons)

In 2016 the Minnesota Twins finished with a record of 59-103. It was the worst record in all of Major League Baseball. But the following year the Twins shocked many with an 85-77 season and an American League Wildcard playoff berth.

That 2017 Twins team of a year ago were led by a number of exciting young players such as 24-year-old third baseman Miguel Sano, 23-year-old center fielder Byron Buxton, 25-year-old left fielder Eddie Rosario, and 24-year-old right fielder Max Kepler.

On the mound the Twins received a major boost when 23-year-old rookie right-hander Jose Berrios entered their starting rotation in the middle of May. Another rookie, 24-year-old Adalberto Mejia, provided the club with 21 mostly solid starting outings.

There were key veteran contributions mixed in from players such as Brian Dozier (30), Ervin Santana (34), Kyle Gibson(29), closer Brandon Kintzler (32), Minnesota native and favored son Joe Mauer (34), and even 44-year-old pitcher Bartolo Colon.

Though AL Manager of the Year Paul Molitor‘s club went down to the powerful New York Yankees in the AL Wildcard Game, they had set the stage for what appeared to be a regular run of contending seasons.

And then the 2018 season got underway. Injuries and poor performances plagued key youngsters Sano and Buxton all year. A Gold Glover last season, Dozier slumped in his free agency year and was dealt to the Los Angeles Dodgers at the July trade deadline. Kepler didn’t necessarily regress, he just failed to step up.

The struggles throughout the lineup have produced a 66-78 season that can be considered nothing less than a disappointment.

In the 2017 season the Philadelphia Phillies went 66-96, the third-worst record in Major League Baseball. It marked a fifth consecutive losing campaign from the Phillies, and the club’s third last-place finish in the division in four years.

But then the 2018 season got underway and the club appeared improved. They jumped to a 16-9 start by April 27, and then to 29-20 by May 26. By the MLB All-Star Game break the Phillies were at 53-42 and had taken over first place in the NL East.

On July 26, a third straight win pushed them to what would be a season-high 2.5 game lead in the division. Continuing to fight through ups and downs as they tried to learn how to win, the Phillies reached their apex on August 5 when a fifth consecutive victory raised their record to 15 games over the .500 mark at 63-48.

Since August 17, when back-to-back wins left them still 14 games above .500, the Phillies have collapsed. In the past month the club has gone just 6-16, and losses in eight of their last 10 games have virtually eliminated them from the postseason conversation.

However, there is no denying that this is going to be considered a step forward season for the Phillies. They are going to finish 10 or more games better in the standings than a year ago. They will be at or near the .500 mark for the first time since 2012 and could have their first winning season since the record-setting 2011 club.

Though they won’t reach the postseason as the Twins did a year ago, they will in many ways have replicated Minnesota’s worst-to-first climb.

Why the Yankees / Twins will win the AL Wildcard Game

Twins visit the Yankees for the 2017 AL Wildcard Game

On Tuesday night at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, the New York Yankees will host the Minnesota Twins in the American League Wildcard Game.

The Yanks are skippered by Joe Girardi, who has never experienced a losing season in his 10 years at the helm.

Girardi has accumulated a 910-710 record, and led the team to three AL East Division crowns. He also guided baseball's marquee franchise to their most recent World Series championship back in the fall of 2009.

Girardi accumulated 1,100 hits across 15 seasons in the big leagues, which included four in Yankee pin stripes. Those four years, from 1996-99, coincided with the franchise' most recent dynastic run. Girardi would win three World Series rings as a player with those Yankees teams.

Over in the visiting dugout, the Twins will be guided by Paul Molitor. One of the greatest hitters of all-time, the Hall of Famer amassed 3,319 base knocks over a storied 21-year career. He was a 7x All-Star and a 4x Silver Slugger Award winner.

Molitor was the MVP of the 1993 World Series while a player with the Toronto Blue Jays, and was also runner-up for both the 1978 AL Rookie of the Year and 1993 AL Most Valuable Player awards.

As the Twins manager, the Saint Paul native has compiled a 227-259 record over three seasons. Two of his three years have resulted in winnings campaigns. But a year ago, his Twins club finished at 59-103, the worst record in baseball.

This season, Girardi's Yankees finished at 91-71, just two games behind the arch-rival Boston Red Sox in the AL East. Molitor's Twins team was one of baseball's most unlikely stories, and finished 85-77, good enough to capture the second AL Wildcard spot by five games.

During the first decade of this century, the Yankees ousted the Twins from the American League Postseason four times. New York defeated Minnesota in the ALDS in 2003, 2004, 2009 and 2010, the last two coming in three-game sweeps.

The host Yankees will enter the game as favorites, and prohibitive ones to many prognosticators. However, there are very good reasons to believe that each of these teams can win, moving on to a date with the defending AL champion Cleveland Indians in the ALDS.

Twins win, draw closer to AL Wildcard as pursuers all lose

Gibson's solid outing helped Twins draw closer to playoffs

It's become monotonous to call them the "surprising" Minnesota Twins. After all, it's been five months now that Paul Molitor's club has been a solid contender in the American League.

The Twins have been in control of the second AL Wildcard berth for weeks now. Last night behind an excellent start on the mound from Kyle Gibson and the timely hitting of Brian Dozier, Byron Buxton, and Max Kepler, they drew closer to clinching a place in the postseason.

Minnesota downed the depleted and demoralized host Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park by a 7-3 score. Meanwhile, their nearest pursuers in the playoff race all lost. The LA Angels were shut out by Houston 3-0, the Texas Rangers dropped a 4-1 decision at Oakland, and the Kansas City Royals were edged 7-6 by the Chicago White Sox.

The result of all that Friday night action is that the 'Magic Number' has dropped to just 6 for Minnesota to clinch the franchise' first playoff berth since being swept out of the ALDS in both 2009 and 2010.

Gibson went seven strong innings, allowing three earned runs on five hits. The 29-year old right-hander struck out six and walked two in raising his record to the 12-10 mark. Those dozen wins leave him one shy of his career high of 13 set back in the 2014 season.

"These two games were big for us and the next two are as well," Gibson said per MLB.com's Rhett Bollinger after the Twins second straight victory in Detroit. "Coming off a rough series in New York, we definitely wanted to get one or two there and getting zero hurt a little bit. But these games were big to get the ship going in the right direction and hopefully we can keep it going."

Byron Buxton's Talents Now on Full Display

The talent has never really been in question when it comes to former Minnesota Twins phenom center fielder Byron Buxton.

Buxton has been a Top 10 prospect in all of baseball by most of the respected resources who undertake such analysis for the last four years, including prior to this 2016 season.

For Baseball America, Buxton was the #2 prospect in the game in each of the past two seasons. He was their Minor League Player of the Year following the 2013 campaign, and was subsequently named as their #1 prospect prior to the 2014 season.

Baseball Prospectus and the folks at MLB.com each had Buxton as their #1 overall prospect prior to both the 2014 and 2015 seasons, and then placed him at #2 in the game this year.

Buxton was a scout's dream. He was given a 70 or better rating on four of the five standard scouting grades: hit, run, arm, and field.

Even his power generally graded out as a 60, and there were scouts who believed he could eventually grow into more.

But there were two problems with the now 22-year old

MLB 2016 Prediction: American League Rookie of the Year

Our staff has just released our predictions for the winners of each division, as well asour postseason predictions, including the 2016 World Series winner. 

I released my own predictions for the Phillies in the coming season. Now we begin the process of releasing our predictions for some of MLB’s major award winners.

Impact rookie ball players are always a fascinating part of any MLB season. A year ago, the Philadelphia Phillies began their rebuilding program by introducing 3rd baseman Maikel Franco for his first full campaign, and starting pitchers Aaron Nola and Jerad Eickhoff as rookies on the mound.

A year ago there was a fascinating finish in the American League Rookie of the Year voting, with a near photo finish between a pair of talented shortstops with very different player profiles.

The award went to Houston Astros shortstop Carlos Correa, who delivered a .279/.345/.512 slash line with 22 homers, 68 RBI, and 14 stolen bases in just 387 at-bats across 99 games following his call-up to the big leagues on June 8th.

The runner-up was Cleveland Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor. He produced a .313/.353/..482 slash line with a dozen homers, 51 RBI, 50 runs scored, and a dozen stolen bases in 390 at-bats across the same 99 games following his own promotion on June 14th.

While Correa had more of an offensive profile and Lindor a top-notch defensive reputation, each proved to be a more than capable performer in all aspects of the game during their freshman campaigns.

Minnesota Twins slugger Miguel Sano banged out 18 homers and drove in 52 runs with a .269/.385/.530 slash line over 279 at-bats in just 80 games. 

He finished in third place a year ago. For the coming season, it’s a teammate of Sano who has been made our staff choice as the AL Rookie of the Year favorite.