MLB Power Rankings: Houston Astros take over the top spot on June 15

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Houston Astros take over top spot with the June 15 rankings

When my first MLB Power Rankings for the 2019 season were released two weeks ago on June 1, I took some guff from a couple of Phillies fans who thought that I was nuts for ranking the club in the #15 slot.

At the time, the Phillies were in first place in the National League East Division, leading the Atlanta Braves by two games. But the Braves came out three places above the Phillies, ranking in the #12 slot. My own personal feelings have nothing to do with it. Instead, it’s all about the results and the statistics. Those rarely prove wrong over the long haul.

As with last season when I began this evaluation process, there will be no subjectivity on my part. I take the key statistics and rank teams based on their ability to actually win ball games as well as their performance on offense, on the pitching mound, and in the field.

The MLB Power Rankings will be updated here at Phillies Nation roughly every two weeks for the remainder of the regular season using the below methodology.

RANKINGS METHODOLOGY

Introduced and then upgraded during the course of last season, my formula for compiling the rankings gets another tweak to begin this year. By the end of 2018, I was researching each of the 30 MLB teams current position in the four categories of winning percentage, runs scored, pitching OPS, and fielding percentage.

This year, runs-per-game will be replacing simple runs scored to get the offensive component. I then assign each of those component category team rankings a 1-30 value and add them up to determine an overall final ratings score. Where there was a tie, it was broken by W-L percentage, then by runs-per-game, followed by pitching OPS.

2019 MLB preview and predictions

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Paul Goldschmidt powers up the Saint Louis Cardinals for 2019

With the 2019 Grapefruit and Cactus League schedules drawing to a close this week, all eyes are now squarely focused on Opening Day. All 30 teams in Major League Baseball will be playing in the regular season on Thursday.

How will superstars such as Bryce Harper with the Philadelphia Phillies, Manny Machado with the San Diego Padres, and Paul Goldschmidt with the Saint Louis Cardinals fare in their new homes? Which teams will become surprise contenders? Which major injuries will derail a team’s postseason hopes?

Each new MLB campaign comes with its own unique storylines. This year will be no different. Over the coming six months there will be excitement, drama, heartbreak, and controversy as each club plays out its 162-game schedule.

For years now I’ve been looking into my own personal crystal ball to make predictions for MLB’s division winners and individual award winners as well as my picks for the postseason.

A year ago in my 2018 MLB Preview and Predictions piece, I got four of the six divisions correct. I missed out on the Milwaukee Brewers edging my Chicago Cubs pick for the NL Central, as well as the Atlanta Braves, who I had for third place in the NL East.

My NL Wildcards were those Brewers and the Colorado Rockies. So the Braves were the only NL playoff team that I missed. In the AL, I had the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Angels as those Wildcard teams. Right divison, wrong team, as the Oakland Athletics actually captured an AL Wildcard spot instead of those Halos.

For the Fall Classic, I predicted that the defending champion Houston Astros would repeat by downing the Cubs in five games in a match-up between the two previous World Series titlists.

Those Cubs would end up losing a thrilling 2-1 NL Wildcard Game to the Rockies at Wrigley Field. The Astros returned to the ALCS, but were eliminated in five games by the eventual World Series champion Boston Red Sox.

Since I am writing for a Phillies-centric site, a bit of a disclaimer: this piece is not Phillies-centric. There will be plenty of times here at Phillies Nation where we cover the wider story of Major League Baseball. As for our favorite home nine, well, you are going to have to look elsewhere if you want to find a “homer” World Series prediction. At least this year.

Now time to reveal my predictions for the upcoming 2019 season. As always, I would love to hear your own picks in the comments section or on social media. Play ball!

Bryce Harper signs with Phillies and can't wait to get going

Bryce Harper meets the Philly media

On a gorgeous Saturday afternoon on top of the home dugout at Spectrum Field, the spring training home of the Philadelphia Phillies in Clearwater, Florida the team introduced their most exciting free agent acquisition in years.

Bryce Harper, the 26-year-old superstar outfielder took the dais with his agent, Scott Boras. They were joined by Phillies principal owner John Middleton and general manager Matt Klentak for a question-and-answer session with the gathered media.

After a quick introduction from broadcaster Tom McCarthy, Harper delivered a personal statement prior to the actual press conference. In his statement, the new Phillies right fielder even mentioned Phillies Nation!

Here is the full text of Bryce Harper’s pre-presser statement:

“I just wanta thank my parents. Thank my wife. This process has definitely been a long one, but it’s been a lot of fun as well. It’s good to feel wanted. It’s good to feel wanted by the Phillies organization, by the fan base, by the city as well. I love my family very much and Philly is going to be a part of that family for a very long time.”

“Also, I’d like to thank Mr. and Mrs. Middleton. From the moment that we had dinner together and talked it felt right. It felt like a home. It felt like somewhere I could be for a long time. And that was important to me. I’m gonna grow my family in this city, and that’s the biggest thing for me. I wanted to be somewhere for a long period of time. I wanted to finish my career somewhere, and they made that commitment to me, and I can’t wait to be a part of the Phillies for a long period of time.”

“Matt (Klentak), Andy (club president MacPhail), Ned (assistant GM Rice), being able to sit down in meetings with you guys as well and knowing how committed you guys are to the Phillies organization, to the minor league side, to the big-league side as well. Being able to see that from afar for a long period of time, for the last seven years, I’ve grown to love playing in Philly. I love playing in Citizens Bank Park. It feels good to know that they are very committed to this organization and to the fans and to the city, and that means a lot.”

Pivotal day in Phillies off-season as club officials meet with Bryce Harper

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Harper with a 'Key to the City' from his hometown of Las Vegas

A front office and coaching contingent from the Philadelphia Phillies will meet today with outfielder Bryce Harper in his hometown of Las Vegas, Nevada.

In what may prove to be the pivotal moment for the franchise for the next decade, the young superstar and his wife Kayla will be joined by super-agent Scott Boras.

The Phillies will be led by owner John Middleton. He will be joined by the club’s President of Baseball Operations Andy MacPhail, General Manager Matt Klentak, Manager Gabe Kapler, Bench Coach Rob Thomson, and Hitting Coach John Mallee.

During the meeting there will certainly be lengthy discussion about the team and its direction. They will talk about the ballpark and the fans. There will be discussions about the Philadelphia region and some of its attractions and offerings.

The Phillies group is surely going to try to sell Harper on being the face of the franchise. However, they will let him know that he is not going to be alone, that they fully intend to maintain a championship-caliber roster during the life of his deal.

Middleton’s presence in Las Vegas can mean only two things. One is that he intends to let the Harper’s and Boras know that the Phillies will not be financially outbid and are ready to get a deal done right now.

The second possibility is that the Phillies are still really more interested in the other major young free agent superstar on the market, Manny Machado, and today’s Vegas meeting is all just a major ploy, one that itself has a two-fold purpose.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic posited the following on Thursday:

“If the Phillies’ preference is Machado, as some in the industry believe, then the meeting from their perspective might simply be a ploy to drive up the price for the Nationals, a division rival. Harper and Boras, in fact, might be proceeding with the same motivation.”

So, the Phillies may be trying to drive up the cost for their NL East rivals to bring back Harper. That could conceivably tie the Nats hands on other moves over the longer term.

Secondly in that alternate scenario, the Phillies could be pushing Machado to make a quicker decision. If Machado and his agent, Dan Lozano of MVP Sports, feels that the Phillies and Harper are close to a deal, it might force the infielder’s hands in beating the outfielder to take a big payday from the team.

Phillies must smartly out-spend Braves to keep up with Atlanta's young talent

Acuna (20) will be a thorn in the Phillies
sides for years to come
(Photo: By Thomson200 via Wiki Commons)

In the end, that the Braves first overcame and then pulled away from the Phillies should not have been much of a shock. Atlanta has played far better baseball all season long.

My first MLB Power Ranking back on July 1 had the Braves as baseball’s fourth best team, second in the National League, while the Phillies were 23rd. While the Phillies would get as high as 16th, the Braves never dropped lower than 6th overall.

Those rankings consider not only the team’s win-loss record, but also their performances on offense, defense, and on the mound. The Braves now hold a 9.5 game lead in the standings on the Phillies, who are in danger of being passed by the Washington Nationals for second place.

A position-by-position comparison of the regulars for the two teams reveals that the Braves are simply a more talented ball club. In most cases they are also younger, showing that the Phillies rivals won’t be going away soon.

First base: 29-year-old Freddie Freeman (ATL) over 32-year-old Carlos Santana (PHI)

Second base: 21-year-old Ozzie Albies (ATL) over 28-year-old Cesar Hernandez (PHI)

Shortstop: 24-year-old Dansby Swanson (ATL) over 24-year-old, out-of-position Scott Kingery (PHI)

Third base: 24-year-old Johan Camargo (ATL) at least a push vs 26-year-old Maikel Franco (PHI)

Catcher: 34-year-old Kurt Suzuki (ATL) at least a push vs 25-year-old Jorge Alfaro (PHI), though if 31-year-old Wilson Ramos returns next year the edge goes to the Phillies

Left field: 20-year-old Ronald Acuna (ATL) over 25-year-old, out-of-position Rhys Hoskins (PHI)

Center field: 27-year-old Ender Inciarte (ATL) over 26-year-old Odubel Herrera (PHI), though for me if 25-year-old Roman Quinn is the Phillies everyday center fielder, it’s at least a push, maybe even advantage Phillies

Right field: 34-year-old Nick Markakis (ATL) over 25-year-old Nick Williams (PHI)

The Phillies are appreciably younger only at catcher and in right field. They are better behind the plate if Ramos is the Phillies catcher, even though Hoskins (with the bat only) and Quinn keep the Phillies competitive at their positions.

On the mound, 25-year-old Aaron Nola gives the Phillies the best starting pitcher in either rotation. However, Braves top starter Mike Foltynewicz (26) is pretty darned close. Atlanta’s Anibal Sanchez (34) out-pitched the Phillies Jake Arrieta (32) as the aging veterans in each rotation this year.

The Braves have a veritable parade of starting pitching options with a wide range of experience including Julio Teheran(27), Kevin Gausman (27), Sean Newcomb (25), Max Fried (24), Touki Toussaint (22), Kyle Wright (22), Luiz Gohara(22), Mike Soroka (21), Bryse Wilson (20), and Ian Anderson (20).

It’s an embarrassment of riches that the Phillies group of Vince Velasquez (26), Nick Pivetta (25), Zach Eflin (24), Jerad Eickhoff (28), Ranger Suarez (23), Enyel De Los Santos (22) may have a hard time matching up against.

Phillies will need another starting pitcher if they want to make playoffs

Aaron Nola has been a Phillies rotation bright spot in 2018

Last Friday night, the Phillies opened a weekend series with the visiting Atlanta Braves at Citizens Bank Park with a 7-3 victory.

That win, behind the pitching of Aaron Nola, lifted the Fightin' Phils record to 17-9 in the early going of the 2018 MLB regular season. It also moved them within a half-game of first place.

As has happened in a couple of recent seasons when the Phillies got off to a hot start, there was talk among some in the fan base of possible Wildcard playoff contention.

Maybe you were one of them last season, when a six-game winning streak lifted them to an 11-9 start in the early going. Or perhaps it was just two years ago, when the club sat at 24-17 and just that same half-game out of first place on May 19, 2016.

Alas, it was not to be for either of those Phillies teams. The 2016 club would win 71 games and finish in fourth place. Last year's bunch sank to 66 wins and a fifth place finish.

This time it seemed to be different. The Phils had opened up their wallets and signed a true Cy Young-winning ace in Jake Arrieta. They had brought in a proven veteran on-base machine in Carlos Santana to tutor and provide an example for the gaggle of talented young hitters who peppered their lineup.

Surely this year, there would be no similar collapse to the last two seasons. Surely this time around, the ball club would fight to contention all through the summer for new skipper Gabe Kapler.

But now after a week in which the Phillies dropped five of six games against division rivals Atlanta, Miami, and Washington, the club has dropped to just three games over the .500 mark. In three of those losses the starting pitchers, Vince Velasquez, Arrieta, and Nick Pivetta were each bombed by the opposition.

After nearly six weeks of the season, the starting pitching has to be a genuine concern. That is especially so if club management actually believes that they can contend for at least a Wildcard berth over the course of the coming summer.

Nola and Arrieta are generally providing the Phillies with good work. Arrieta has allowed 23 hits over 28.1 innings with a 20/10 K:BB ratio. He has solid 3.49 ERA and 1.16 WHIP marks, with slightly better ERA+ and FIP marks.

Nola appears to be elevating himself to true 'Ace' level this season. He is 4-1 with a 2.17 ERA and 0.920 WHIP, surrendering 31 hits over a staff-high 45.2 innings with a 35/11 K:BB ratio. His last four outings have each resulted in a Quality Start effort.

But behind those two, the starting pitching is becoming a true mess.

Velasquez continues to be an enigma, with fantastic stuff and unimpressive results, including a 5.70 ERA and WHIP of 1.467 to this point. While he has a strong 34/9 K:BB ratio over 30 innings pitched, the righty has also allowed 35 hits, including a staff-high five home runs.

After getting blown up by the Braves in his last start, he had this to say per MLB.com's Todd Zolecki:

"You're going to have one of these days and you shouldn't beat yourself up because it's just going to add up. I'll look back at some film and reflect back and go back to the actual first outings and maybe even reflect back to a couple years ago and how I was successful in a couple of games. This is the process of getting better and you utilize stuff like this to better you."

Problem is that his "one of these days" has become a regular occurrence. Just 16 of Velasquez' 45 starts with the Phillies over the last three seasons have been of the Quality Start variety. The argument that he would be more suited to a bullpen role is going to grow louder and louder if something major doesn't change quickly.

The 2018 State of the Phillies

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Phillies controlling owner John Middleton (L) plans next steps forward

Philadelphia Phillies pitchers and catchers reported for the official start of spring training on Wednesday.

While much of the Delaware Valley and broader Phillies Nation were celebrating Valentine's Day, the first steps towards the 2018 season were being taken down in Clearwater, Florida.

A year ago, the Phillies finished with a 66-96 record. It left them in last place in the National League East Division for the third time in four years.

The fifth consecutive losing season for the ball club then cost manager Pete Mackanin his job. The team went just 174-238 under the former skipper in roughly two and a half years.

It's hard to blame Mackanin, however. Fact is, no manager would have been able to win with the combination of subpar talent and youth with which he was asked to work in the entirety of his time at the helm.

In late October, the team hired Gabe Kapler as their new manager. The colorful and intense Kapler was a player for parts of 13 seasons in Major League Baseball. He also played in Japan for part of the 2005 season. Kapler was a part of the Boston Red Sox 2004 World Series championship team.

After his retirement as a player, Kapler coached for Team Israel in the 2013 WBC, worked for a baseball analytics company, and then served as an analytics voice for the Fox Sports 1 network. He then worked as the Los Angeles Dodgers Director of Player Development. He certainly brings a rare depth and breadth of baseball experience to the job.

What Kapler brings most is an intensity to the Phillies clubhouse and dugout not seen since Larry Bowa was relieved of those responsibilities late in the 2004 campaign. Heck, even the mercurial Bowa might not have been as intensely driven as Kapler appears.

It remains to be seen how Kapler's style will translate on the field and in the standings. The bottom line, as it is with almost all baseball teams, will be talent. Do the Phillies actually have the talent to finally make a move upwards in the divisional and league standings this season?

The short answer appears to be a firm "It's hard to say." And as non-committal as that may seem, it's simply the truth.

The Mets, who the Phillies finished four games behind a year ago, look to be improved this year. The Marlins, who finished 11 games ahead, have lost serious talent. The Braves, who ended up six games ahead of the Phillies, appear at a similar place in their own rebuilding plan. The Nationals remain light years away for the time being, clear divisional favorites once again.

Financially, the Phillies are in great shape moving forward. The club is operating with a $63 million projected payroll for the 2018 season per Cot's Baseball Contracts. That figure is between one-half and one-third of what they spent each season between 2008 and 2015.

What this means is that Phillies management has the ability to take on almost any contract at the trade deadline if the club finds itself in contention. In fact, they could take on multiple contracts without hurting themselves, especially if those are of the short-term variety.

The key will be in that fight for contention. The players who will be making the pitches and cracking the bats at Spectrum Field over the next six weeks will be the ones who have to make it happen if there is to be a surprise push this year.

The Phillies lineup will be intriguing if nothing else. Start with first base, where Carlos Santana was the club's big free agent signing. I was and remain critical of the signing, especially at roughly $20 million per year for the next three seasons during which he will go from 32 to 34 years of age.

Santana is lauded for his plate discipline and defensive prowess. He has a career .365 on-base percentage, and his K/BB marks have been very close over his career.

Phillies Fall 2016 Top Ten Prospects: #2 - J.P. Crawford

The Philadelphia Phillies minor league organization has enjoyed a welcome resurgence over the last two seasons. 

A handful of astute trades have built up the quality and depth, particularly at the upper levels.

But a big piece of the organizational improvement has come via the draft process. 

Because the big league club has deteriorated, the Phillies have been selecting at or near the top of the MLB Amateur Draft for the last four seasons, and have largely made those picks count.

In 2014 it was starting pitcher Aaron Nola, who joined the rotation a year later. That draft also produced first baseman Rhys Hoskins in the fifth round. He shared the organizational Paul Owens Award this year.

In 2015, the Phillies selected outfielder Cornelius Randolph at 10th overall, and then chose second baseman Scott Kingery in the second round. Both now rank within this Phillies Fall 2016 Top Ten Prospects countdown.

Two more players on the current countdown were produced in this year’s 2016 MLB Amateur Draft. Outfielder Mickey Moniak is ranked third, and pitcher Kevin Gowdy is now ranked at #9 on my Fall 2016 list of the Phillies top prospects.

Phillies 2016 POY: Odubel Herrera

The rebuilding program continued for the Philadelphia Phillies in the 2016 season. The club moved up to fourth place in the NL East Division with a 71-91 record.

That left the Fightin’ Phils a distant 24 games behind the division-leading Washington Nationals. They were also 16 in back of an NL Wildcard berth. But it also marked an eight game improvement over their worst in baseball finish of a year earlier.

The overall record and standings finish wasn’t so much a problem for manager Pete Mackanin‘s troops. Perhaps a more worrisome issue was the 11-21 mark over the final five weeks.

As that rebuild continues, the 2017 campaign will be especially important. For a couple of the young position players it will be time to step up and show that they can be legitimate impact bats.

For the pitching, there are a couple of young arms that have physical questions to answer. A few others will be looking to step forward and begin to show that they can be long-term pieces.

Thanksgiving 2016: Five Phillies Things to be Thankful For

I have been a fan of the Philadelphia Phillies ever since I became aware of their existence at around age nine in the 1971 season.

That year, Veteran’s Stadium opened virtually in my South Philly backyard. 

Over the decades since, I have attended hundreds of games as a paying customer between ‘The Vet’ and Citizens Bank Park, not to mention a few road trip excursions.

I watched the 1970’s team come to power and win the 1980 World Series championship. Even attended Game Two of that Fall Classic as an 18-year old.

I fell in love with the 1993 ‘Macho Row’ squad, still the most fun Phillies season from start to finish that I have ever enjoyed.

And I especially reveled in the greatness of the team from the last decade. The one that rose to power in the late-00’s, won the 2008 World Series, and captured five straight NL East crowns.

Phillies Fall 2016 Top Ten Prospects: #3 - Mickey Moniak

The Philadelphia Phillies Fall 2016 top prospect countdown is now into the most elite of this greatly improved organization’s young performers.

In 2015, the Phils’ rebuilding program underwent perhaps its most important development. Team ownership woke to the necessity of changing those making the decisions and talent evaluations. 

Andy MacPhail was brought on board. He would quickly rise to his current position of president of baseball operations. MacPhail then hired Matt Klentak as his general manager.

The pair was further supported by a change in ownership control to John Middleton. This effectively began during 2015 as well. But it was made formal in a vote by the MLB owners just in the last couple of weeks.

That controlling group had their first real opportunity to begin putting their stamp on the future of the organization through the 2016 MLB Amateur Draft.

The Phillies owned the top overall selection in that draft process for the first time since selecting Pat Burrell all the way back in 1999. This would be a vital pick as the rebuilding program moved forward.

It is far too early to know exactly how it will turn out. So much can still happen in the way of injuries and other developmental issues. But it appears that they may have hit a home run with the selection.

Phillies Fall 2016 Top Ten Prospects: #4 - Roman Quinn

The Philadelphia Phillies just completed what can be considered the second season of their rebuilding process.

There are probably some who might trace that rebuild back to the 2012 “throw in the towel” deals of Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence.

I think there was still a sense of denial in the organization at that point. For me, the real concerted effort did not begin until the December 2014 trades of Jimmy Rollinsand Marlon Byrd.

As the process moves forward, the pieces that will make up the future are beginning to come into focus. For me, one of the keys to that rebuilding process is the #4 prospect in this Philadelphia Phillies Fall 2016 Top Prospects countdown, Roman Quinn.

Phillies Fall 2016 Top Ten Prospects: #5 - Nick Williams

The Philadelphia Phillies minor league and prospect improvement resulted in a lot of winning throughout the organization this past season.

That improvement included each of their minor league affiliates reaching the playoffs, and MiLB naming the Phillies as having the Best Farm System in 2016.

With all of the success, there were a few high-profile disappointments this year among the organizations crown jewel prospects. One of those was outfielder Nick Williams, who remains the Phillies #5 overall prospect.

Prior to the 2016 season, Williams was considered one of the top few dozen prospects in the game. Baseball American had him ranked 27th overall, and Baseball Prospectus had him ranked 25th in the game.

Williams had come to the Phillies organization as part of a massive haul from the Texas Rangers in the Cole Hamels deal at the 2015 non-waiver trade deadline.

The Rangers second round pick in the 2012 MLB Amateur Draft out of a Galveston, Texas high school, Williams is a 6’3″ lefty hitter and fielder.

Philadelphia Phillies Top 25 Players of All-Time: #12 - Billy Hamilton

"Slidin' Billy" Hamilton was described by David Fleitz in his excellent SABR biography on Hamilton as "the greatest base stealer and most prolific run scorer of 19th century baseball".

But as with a handful of others on this countdown: Roy Thomas (24), Gavvy Cravath (23), Cy Williams (21), and Sam Thompson (17), his contributions to the Philadelphia Phillies have been lost to time for most contemporary fans.

Hamilton was born in 1866 to Scottish immigrants in Newark, New Jersey. The family moved to Massachusetts when he was four years old, and that was where Hamilton was raised, learning to play baseball as a boy.

He became a top player in the semipro leagues around his new hometown of Clinton, especially known for his speed game. 

As a 21-year-old in 1887, Hamilton made his professional debut. Less than a year later that speed was his ticket to the big leagues, where he would debut with the American Association's Kansas City Cowboys.

In his first full season in 1889, Hamilton led the American Association with 111 stolen bases. It would be the first of three consecutive seasons and four total over his career in which he would steal more than 100 bases.

At the end of that 1889 campaign, Kansas City folded under the weight of financial problems. Hamilton's contract was sold in January of 1890 to the Philadelphia Phillies organization of the National League.

Phillies Fall 2016 Top Ten Prospects: #6 - Franklyn Kilome

It is widely accepted throughout the industry that the Philadelphia Phillies have one of the most improved farm systems in the game.

As my own “Phillies Fall 2016 Top 10 Prospects” countdown progresses, the player in the #6 slot becomes the third and final pitcher on the list.

Franklyn Kilome is a 21-year old, 6’6″, 175 pound right-hander signed by the Phils out of the Dominican Republic back in 2013.

Kilome’s Pro Career to Date

Kilome began his professional career pitching as a teenager with the GCL Phillies in the summer of 2014. He went 3-1 with a 3.12 ERA and 1.165 WHIP while allowing 36 hits over 40.1 innings in 11 games, eight of them starts.

In 2015, Kilome was moved up to short season Williamsport, where he put together a 3-2 record with a 3.28 ERA and 1.257 WHIP as a 20-year old. He yielded 41 hits in 49.1 innings over 11 starting outings.

This past summer saw Kilome take the next step, moving up to Low A Lakewood in the South Atlantic League. He went 5-8 with a 3.85 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over 23 starts, allowing 113 hits in 114.2 innings.

In his three seasons, Kilome has produced a combined 191/82 K:BB ratio over 204.1 innings.  He has allowed 190 hits over his first 45 pro games, 42 of those as starting assignments.

It is believed that Kilome is beginning to fill out his large frame as he matures, and that his actual weight is significantly greater now than the bio listed 175.

Phillies Fall 2016 Top Ten Prospects: #7 - Ben Lively

The Philadelphia Phillies have brought a number of young starting pitchers to the big leagues over the last two seasons who have a shot to become members of their rotation over the long term.

In 2015 it was Aaron Nola, Jerad Eickhoff, Adam Morgan, and Alec Asher getting their shots. Eickhoff has become perhaps the club’s most reliable starter. Nola has a world of talent, but is now battling injury concerns.

Asher and Morgan started slow a year ago. Morgan struggled even more mightily this season, but Asher righted his ship and put himself back into the long term conversation.

In 2016 the debut came for both Zach Eflin, now also battling back from injury, and for Jake Thompson, who held his own in a late season promotion.

At some point in the 2017 season, possibly right away depending upon the health of some of the other starting pitchers, right-hander Ben Lively should get his own shot.

Lively will turn 25-years old in early March down in Clearwater as he fights to impress the Phillies coaching staff and team management.

MLB Pipeline currently has him listed as the club’s #23 prospect. None of the major evaluation resources have him ranked as highly as I have him here. So why do I have Lively as my #7 Phillies prospect for the Fall of 2016?