2019 MLB preview and predictions

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Paul Goldschmidt powers up the Saint Louis Cardinals for 2019

With the 2019 Grapefruit and Cactus League schedules drawing to a close this week, all eyes are now squarely focused on Opening Day. All 30 teams in Major League Baseball will be playing in the regular season on Thursday.

How will superstars such as Bryce Harper with the Philadelphia Phillies, Manny Machado with the San Diego Padres, and Paul Goldschmidt with the Saint Louis Cardinals fare in their new homes? Which teams will become surprise contenders? Which major injuries will derail a team’s postseason hopes?

Each new MLB campaign comes with its own unique storylines. This year will be no different. Over the coming six months there will be excitement, drama, heartbreak, and controversy as each club plays out its 162-game schedule.

For years now I’ve been looking into my own personal crystal ball to make predictions for MLB’s division winners and individual award winners as well as my picks for the postseason.

A year ago in my 2018 MLB Preview and Predictions piece, I got four of the six divisions correct. I missed out on the Milwaukee Brewers edging my Chicago Cubs pick for the NL Central, as well as the Atlanta Braves, who I had for third place in the NL East.

My NL Wildcards were those Brewers and the Colorado Rockies. So the Braves were the only NL playoff team that I missed. In the AL, I had the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Angels as those Wildcard teams. Right divison, wrong team, as the Oakland Athletics actually captured an AL Wildcard spot instead of those Halos.

For the Fall Classic, I predicted that the defending champion Houston Astros would repeat by downing the Cubs in five games in a match-up between the two previous World Series titlists.

Those Cubs would end up losing a thrilling 2-1 NL Wildcard Game to the Rockies at Wrigley Field. The Astros returned to the ALCS, but were eliminated in five games by the eventual World Series champion Boston Red Sox.

Since I am writing for a Phillies-centric site, a bit of a disclaimer: this piece is not Phillies-centric. There will be plenty of times here at Phillies Nation where we cover the wider story of Major League Baseball. As for our favorite home nine, well, you are going to have to look elsewhere if you want to find a “homer” World Series prediction. At least this year.

Now time to reveal my predictions for the upcoming 2019 season. As always, I would love to hear your own picks in the comments section or on social media. Play ball!

Major League Baseball 2017 Predictions

Opening Day in MLB is always the single most sure sign that spring has fully sprung. Ballparks across America will be filled to capacity in the coming days.

At last, Major League Baseball returns for the 2017 season.

Over the next seven months, excitement and drama that we can’t even imagine today will take place. 

While we cannot foresee the details, we can take a stab at a few predictions.

Some things are fairly certain based on the 2017 MLB season schedule. For instance, we know that the first game is scheduled to begin at 1:10pm EDT on Sunday afternoon.

The New York Yankees take the field against the host Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Since ‘The Trop’ is a domed stadium, chances of weather interruptions are almost non-existent.

Chris Archer of Tampa Bay is scheduled to throw the season’s first official pitch. Digging in at the plate as the Yanks’ leadoff hitter will be left fielder Brett Gardner.

Later that same day, two more games are scheduled to take place. The San Francisco Giants send ace lefty Madison Bumgarner to the hill. He will face the NL West rival Arizona Diamondbacks and their ace righty Zack Greinke. That game is scheduled to start at 4:10pm EDT at Chase Field in Phoenix.

The day’s action is scheduled to wrap with an 8:35pm EDT classic. The defending world champion Chicago Cubs visit their arch-rivals, the St. Louis Cardinals.

Just One Sure-Fire First Ballot Hall of Famer Each of Next Three Years

There is a great deal of discussion taking place right now in regards to voting on Baseball Hall of Fame ballots.

A number of truly worthy candidates are on this year’s ballot, players who should absolutely find themselves enshrined one day. 

These include the greatest player who I ever saw in person, Barry Bonds. He still may fall just short this year as voters continue to evaluate his PED usage.

There would appear to be four men at the current time who stand a reasonable chance of gaining enshrinement in the summer of 2017.

When results of the BBWAA voting are released in three weeks we could very well find as many as four players elected. 

Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines, Trevor Hoffman, and Ivan Rodriguez each could gain that measure of baseball immortality.

Of those players, only Rodriguez is a first ballot nominee, and the result for ‘Pudge’ is likely to be a close one.

MLB Has New Collective Bargaining Agreement

Just hours before the old agreement was to expire, MLB announced that it had reached terms on a new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) with the Major League Baseball Players Association.

Months of negotiations had intensified in recent days as the expiration of the old agreement approached at midnight today. Enough progress had been made that notification of a deal was made public.

The next formal step in the process is that a “memorandum of understanding” will be drafted. This document will need to then be ratified by membership on both sides.

While full details of the new CBA will likely not be released to the public for weeks or months, some of the highlights have already leaked out.

2016 Baseball Winter Meetings Preview

Major League Baseball will conduct the annual MLB Winter Meetings just outside of Washington, D.C. this year. 

The formal location is National Harbor, Maryland, a waterfront development along the Potomac River.

The headquarters for this year’s meetings, which run from December 4-8, will be the Gaylord National Resort & Convention Center.

There the folks from MLB Network will set up a broadcasting hub to bring all of the action to fans everywhere. 

Interviews with baseball executives, managers, general managers, player agents and others will highlight much of the activity.

The Winter Meetings have historically been a time and place for many of baseball’s biggest offseason deals to get done. 

In the years before the development of instantaneous communication such as the internet, these face-to-face meetings were the place that GMs would negotiate and consummate numerous trades.

Writers Write

Press box at Comerica Park in Detroit, home of the Tigers

The great Flannery O'Connor was quoted regarding writing: "I'm a full-time believer in writing habits...You may be able to do without them if you have genius, but most of us only have talent and this is simply something that has to be assisted all the time by physical and mental habits or it dries up and blows away."

What she was saying in her oh so elegant way was that we writers need to do: it's not good enough to call yourself a writer, or to say you want to be a writer. Writers write. It's in the doing. O'Connor was emphasizing that you need to do, and do regularly, or your talent will waste away.

I've been thinking about this a lot over the last few years, but in particular over the last few months, as I prepare to transition from one career to the next. Whether I ever draw a paycheck, a royalty check, a residual check, whatever - my next career will be as a writer.

The importance in writing is not whether you make money from your creative output, though I will never undervalue the importance of earning a living. The earning is an entirely separate issue. What is at it's most basic for a writer is that very output.

Writers write.

Goodbye, Mr. Padre

It was the summer of 1982, and I was a still young 21-year old baseball fan who was beginning to take notice of something happening within the game that I had followed for about a dozen years.

The heroes of the game in my childhood were beginning to age, and some were even retiring. For example, Reggie Jackson and Jim Palmer were 37 years old. Johnny Bench was 35, playing in his final season.

Even my own beloved Philadelphia Phillies, strong contenders for the last 7-8 years, and World Series champions just 2 years earlier were aging with core veterans like Pete Rose (41), Steve Carlton (37), and Tug McGraw (37) getting long in the tooth. Even Mike Schmidt was then 33 years old. Still a strong MVP candidate, but even Schmitty was sliding inevitably towards the back end of his own career.

But as I was coming to adulthood, and that generation of ballplayers from my childhood was fading away, I was also noticing that in those early-mid 1980's a new, younger generation of ballplayers was coming along, all of them my own age or just a couple years older. Over the next decade and more, these players such as Cal Ripken Jr, Kirby Puckett, Daryl Strawberry, Ryne Sandberg, and Wade Boggs among others would provide many memorable moments to the game.

Among those new, emerging players was a sweet-swinging, athletic outfielder with the Padres out in San Diego by the name of Tony Gwynn who had begun his career with a mid-summer callup on July 19th, 1982. In that first game, Gwynn went 2-4, scoring one run and driving in another in a 7-6 loss to the Phillies, who were led by homeruns from Schmidt and catcher Bo Diaz.

Hitting 5th in the Padres batting order that night, Gwynn provided a 1st inning sacrifice fly in his first big league plate appearance against Phils' starter Mike Krukow that scored Tim Flannery and gave San Diego an early 2-0 lead. His two hits later that evening were the first of 3,141 in his career. It would be the first of many successful moments and games for Tony Gwynn in what would prove to be a 20-year Hall of Fame career.

After that break-in campaign in 1982 during which he hit a more than respectable .289, Gwynn would never again hit less than .309 in a season. He would hit more than .330 in nine different seasons, over .350 in seven of those seasons, winning 8 National League batting titles. He would lead the league in hits 7 times, and was a 14-time NL All-Star. Though he never won an MVP award, he finished in the Top 10 of the voting 7 times. Gwynn also won 5 Gold Gloves for his excellent play in right field.

Tony Gwynn was remarkably consistent, hitting and producing under virtually any set of circumstances. He hit .343 at home and .334 on the road. He hit .340 at night and .334 in day games. He hit .337 outdoors and .351 inside in domed stadiums. He hit .339 on grass, and .334 on artificial turf surfaces. Gwynn was especially strong in the clutch, hitting .354 in the 9th inning of games, and .393 in extra innings. He hit .326 in tie game situations, .321 with 2 outs and runners in scoring position, and .353 in situations where it was late in games and the score was close.

Over those 20 seasons in Major League Baseball, Tony Gwynn played in 180 games against the Phillies, starting 168 times, and had 768 plate appearances against them. Gwynn hit .346 with a .400 on-base percentage, figures just a little above his overall career averages. He wore out Phillies pitching the way he wore out everyone. He hit over .300 against every single team that he faced more than 100x in his career, over .330 against all but two teams.

He was nicknamed "Mr. Padre" for spending his entire 2-decades career in San Diego and leading them to the franchise's only two World Series appearances following the 1984 and 1998 seasons. The Padres lost both of those Series to the Tigers 4-1 and the Yankees 4-0 respectively. Gwynn made the final out of that 1984 Series. He also homered off David Wells in the 1998 Series opener, a moment that he called the greatest hit and highlight of his career.

He was also nicknamed "Captain Video" as a nod to his relentless watching of videos of his own at-bats, as well as videos of opposing pitchers. Gwynn was one of the first to actively embrace video, becoming almost obsessive in trying to obtain any slight advantage, advance his skills, and improve his performance and results. He bought his own video equipment, his wife would tape his at-bats, and he would bring the equipment with him throughout his baseball travels.

Tony Gwynn was elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame in his first year of eligibility in 2007, but that didn't end Gwynn's contributions to the game. He became the head coach at his college alma mater, San Diego State University, where he compiled a 363-363 career record and guided the school to three Mountain West Conference championships and three NCAA tourney appearances, only endearing him more to the folks in his adopted hometown.

Born and raised in Los Angeles, Gwynn attended high school in Long Beach, attended college in San Diego, and of course played in MLB with San Diego. He was a California kid all the way through. His was a baseball family, with brother Chris Gwynn also playing in MLB, and the two brothers even briefly played together with the Padres. Tony's only son Tony Gwynn Jr is a Major Leaguer today, currently playing with the Phillies. Gwynn also had a daughter and 3 granddaughters.

In 2010, Tony Gwynn was first diagnosed with cancer of the salivary gland, and he had lymph nodes and tumors from the gland removed. This began a battle over the next four years through radiation, chemotherapy, and surgeries with varying degrees of success. Three days ago, on June 16th, 2014, Tony Gwynn died from complications of his cancer. He was just 54 years old. Gwynn himself attributed his cancer to his lifelong addiction to chewing tobacco. His cancer and death should be a warning call to stay away from this awful, addictive, and dangerous product.

Tony Gwynn was one of the greatest "pure hitters" that I have personally ever seen in the game of baseball. That term "pure hitter" is generally reserved for those players who maintain an abnormally high batting average, but with little power. Gwynn was at the elite end of the scale in that regard, rivaled only during my lifetime by Wade Boggs, Rod Carew, and Pete Rose.

Over the past couple of days, and no doubt continuing over the next few and through this season, the fans of the San Diego Padres as well as baseball fans across America and around the world will be remembering and memorializing one of the greats of the game. For me, Tony Gwynn was my age. He is one of the first of my contemporaries to pass, and thus is particularly special to me. RIP, Mr. Padre, and enjoy the next life with your heavenly Father. You will not be forgotten as long as people who love the game of baseball as much as I do are left in this life.

MLB June 2014 Power Ranking

Josh Donaldson and the A's atop first Power Ranking

We are now two full months into the 2014 Major League Baseball season, and teams have had more than ample time to separate themselves based on their results and ability to overcome adversity, such as debilitating injuries.

So now is the time that a relevant Power Ranking of the game's top clubs can begin to sort out the contenders from the pretenders. There are 16 teams in MLB with .500 or better records. If your favorite is not one of them, your favorite is not likely going to the post-season.


POWER RANKING - JUNE

1. OAKLAND ATHLETICS
The 2-time defending A.L. West champion A's not only have the top record in the American League at 35-22 for a .614 win percentage, they are also ranked 1st in all of MLB in Pitching and Hitting. Their 20th-rated Defense is currently their only weakness, but at least at this stage it is not a separator that is hurting their results on the field. Manager Bob Melvin is using his entire roster. A full dozen players have more than 100 plate appearances. Three players are in double-digits for homeruns, led by the MLB leader in oWAR, Josh Donaldson. On the mound, the A's have four starters who have been extremely effective, led by young ace Sonny Gray. Now they appear to have found a legit longterm closer option in Sean Doolittle. The staff overall ERA is below 3, incredible for an A.L. team. If they stay healthy, they are again both A.L. West and World Series contenders.

2. MILWAUKEE BREWERS
There is perhaps no bigger surprise team in all of baseball than the Brew Crew. Though they possess just the National League's 2nd best record, they may be MLB's most complete team to this stage of the season. Milwaukee is 11th in Hitting, 7th in Pitching, and 8th in Defense. Not at the top of any category, but they have so far demonstrated no major weakness. Ryan Braun and Carlos Gomez are both legit NL MVP candidates right now, and may be the league's top 1-2 punch at the plate.

3. LOS ANGELES ANGELS
The scary thing about the Halos is that they just might be about to get measurably better as Josh Hamilton comes off the DL this week. He will join Mike Trout and Albert Pujols in giving LA's "other team" a true 3-headed monster on offense, where they are already the game's 4th-ranked club. With the 7th-ranked Defense, it is only the Angels 15th-ranked Pitching that keeps them from making a big run at Oakland in the A.L. West right now. Young starters Garrett Richards and Tyler Skaggs are keys, but this is a "buy" team for a veteran arm.

4. SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
The top team in the National League standings is also baseball's overall #3 in Pitching and #7 in Hitting. Much like Oakland, they have a weakness on 'D', where they are ranked down at #21, just below the A's. But like their by-the-bay cousins, it isn't hurting them at this point. Tim Hudson has easily been the best off-season free agent signing in the sport, and he teams with Madison Bumgarner to give the G-Men a dynamic 1-2 punch atop their rotation. Outfielder Mike Morse may be the 2nd best off-season signing, giving them a true impact power bat to this point.

5. TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Rounding out the Top 5 to this point in the season, this is about where everyone thought the Jays would be a year ago. That disappointing season is being quickly forgotten in a barrage of homeruns being launched  by the game's #2 Offense. A half-dozen players have at least 8 longballs, led by the dynamic 1-2 punch of Edwin Encarnacion (19) and Jose Bautista (14), but they are not one dimensional. The Jays are fundamentally sound, with baseball's 6th-ranked Defense. Only their 22nd-rated mediocre pitching keeps them from the top, that despite a Cy Young-caliber season from 10-win veteran Mark Buehrle.

6. SAINT LOUIS CARDINALS

7. DETROIT TIGERS

8. BALTIMORE ORIOLES

9. SEATTLE MARINERS

10. LOS ANGELES DODGERS

Best of the rest: 
Atlanta Braves, New York Yankees, Texas Rangers, Chicago White Sox,
Miami Marlins, Colorado Rockies

My call: 
Too soon for Divisional, Wildcard, Pennant, or World Series picks. But here is the first call - if you're not mentioned somewhere in the above, you're not going to the playoffs. Period. Take that to the bank. Tell your team to start selling now.

Day Baseball Vital to Game's Popularity

The picture to the left comes from the 1984 World Series between the Detroit Tigers and San Diego Padres. It shows Tigers shortstop Alan Trammell taking a lead, with Padres 1st baseman Steve Garvey holding him close.

In Game #4 of that World Series, Trammell, a borderline Hall of Famer whose case will continue to correctly be argued moving forward, hit a pair of homeruns to lead the Tigers to a 4-2 victory and a 3-1 lead in the series that they would win a day later. Well, actually they would win it a night later. And that would be end end of World Series day baseball.

That Game #4 in which Trammell homered twice had a starting time of 1:30pm EDT. It would be the last World Series game played completely in natural daylight. The following day's Game #5 had a start time of 4:30pm EDT, but by the time the Tigers were celebrating their victory it would be dark. That would be the last World Series game played in natural daylight at all.

I say "in natural daylight" because Game #6 of the 1987 World Series between the Minnesota Twins and Saint Louis Cardinals was played during daytime, but the game was indoors at the Metrodome, and thus was not the beneficiary of a natural daylight atmosphere. Still, at least that game was played at a time when most kids could stay up and watch the entirety.

So it has been 30 years since baseball fans have enjoyed the beauty of the game in a championship setting played when it was most meant to be played, in daylight on a beautiful afternoon under a sun-soaked sky. It has been almost those same 30 since most kids have been able to stay up and watch on TV as a World Series victory celebration takes place.

These days, thanks to more playoff rounds, the World Series is generally played during the last week of October. The average daytime high temperature for that week in Detroit and Boston is in the upper-50's, in Saint Louis it is the low-60's, even in climate-friendly Los Angeles the average daytime high is around 70 degrees.

However, the night temperatures at the normal game time for each of those location is about 20 degrees cooler. As anyone who has ever played the game, or sat outside to watch a game, can attest, baseball was most certainly not meant to be ideally played in temperatures in the 30's and 40's. But because of television network contracts, that is what we usually get - the championship of our national pastime decided in conditions not normally seen all during the rest of the playing season.

Not only is the quality of the experience diminished for the fans in attendance, and the game itself often made more of a challenge for the players in these conditions, but that aspect of growing the game by allowing young fans to experience the thrill of watching a full World Series game has been lost to at least a couple of generations. Who let's their 10-year old stay up until midnight to watch the World Series, unless perhaps it's their hometown team playing?

There is nothing like the experience of sitting outside on a nice, sunny afternoon watching baseball. That experience would certainly be better on a Saturday afternoon in Detroit or Boston or Philadelphia than it would on a Saturday night during the last week of October. It is time for baseball to recognize this vital aspect of their game, and build it into the next television contract, if not amend the current deal.

There should always be at least one World Series game played during full daylight hours. A 2:30pm EDT start time for all World Series games played on Saturday should be the norm, built into those TV deals. There should also be an effort by MLB to ensure that during the regular season, there are at least a handful of weekday games played during daylight hours, ideally with at least one such game every single day.

Day baseball is when many young fans get introduced to the game. There are also many MLB fans who have shift work, and who cannot watch and follow games during night hours. Opening up more opportunities for these fans, even on a limited basis, should be a priority for the folks running the game.

There are billions of dollars involved in these television contracts these days. Having a few dozen of the involved games played during daylight hours by contract would certainly not affect those big deals in any truly measurable way. Meanwhile, the accompanying good will and outreach would be appreciated by many fans currently restricted.

Baseball was meant to be played during the daylight hours, under cloudless skies with the sun shining brightly, on a green grass. The realities of television, and fans ability to follow the majority of the season after work hours during evening and nights is the new reality. That is understandable. But MLB should always be looking for opportunities to embrace more that ideal of the day baseball experience for it's fans.

MLB 2014: American League West

Mike Trout of the Los Angeles Angels has played just two full Major League Baseball seasons. But in that short amount of time one thing has become clear: Mike Trout is the best all-around player in the game.

The local (Millville, NJ) kid hit .326 with a .399 on-base percentage and .564 slugging percentage, stole 49 bases, scored 129 runs, clubbed 30 homers and knocked in 83 runs as a 20-year old in 2012 to win the A.L. Rookie of the Year Award. Were it not for Miguel Cabrera's historic 'Triple Crown' season, Trout would also have been the league MVP.

Most felt that there was no way that he could replicate those incredible numbers as a sophomore in 2013. And he didn't. But what he did do was hit .323 with a .432 on-base percentage and .557 slugging percentage, stole 33 bases, scored 109 runs, hit 27 homers while driving in 97 runs. Is that a little worse? A little better?

The scary thing for MLB pitchers is that Trout is only 22 years old. He won't reach his peak performance for a couple of years still. It is likely that he is only going to get better, if you can imagine that. Given health, we are looking at the beginning of one of the great careers in the history of the game. We're talking Mickey Mantle and Ken Griffey Jr. stuff here.

But for all his individual early career success, Trout's outstanding hitting, base-running and defense have not been enough to elevate the Angels to contender status. In 2012, the team won 89 games, a nice total but 5 shy of both AL West-winning Oakland and of the Wildcard. Last year, they slipped to 78 wins, finishing 18 games behind Oakland, 13 1/2 back of the Wildcard.

It's clear that Mike Trout is the player to watch and talk about in this division. But he is going to need help if his LA-Anaheim based team wants to move back up into contending status. They are not far off, and if their key players stay healthy most of the season, they just might have what it takes.

Here are my predictions for the American League West in 2014:

1) Texas Rangers
Based in Arlington, Texas as part of the Dallas-Forth Worth Metroplex, the franchise actually began as the expansion Washington Senators in 1961. In 1971, they moved to Texas. In their 53 seasons, the club has never won a World Series, making them one of 8 MLB teams to retain that dubious distinction. But they did reach the Series in back-to-back years recently. Can this group return to that 2010-11 status, and perhaps even take that first crown? To that end, ownership reached into their pocketbooks and brought in a pair of high-priced, high-talent hitters in 1st baseman Prince Fielder and outfielder Shin-Soo Choo. They join an offense that already included all-star 3rd baseman Adrian Beltre, the dynamic young middle infield combo of Elvis Andrus and Jurickson Profar, and solid supporting hitters such as Alex Rios, J.P. Arencibia, Mitch Moreland, Leonys Martin, and Geovany Soto. They will give every pitcher they face a rough go, but as we all know, hitting is only part of the game. What happens when the Rangers take the field? Thanks to injuries, the rotation has a few question marks. Particularly with Derek Holland and Matt Harrison. The former won't likely be ready until summer while recovering from knee surgery, while the latter may be a month behind in his spring development. There is no question at the front of their rotation, as Japanese import Yu Darvish has proven to be a major star. Youngsters Alexi Ogando, Nick Tepesch, and Martin Perez will be asked to take on major roles while the others try to get healthy. The bullpen looks like a strength, especially if Neftali Feliz comes all the way back from his own injuries. He will join Joakim Soria, Tanner Scheppers, Neal Cotts, Jason Frasor, and Robbie Ross to give the Rangers an excellent mix. Guys like Tommy Hanson and Michael Kirkman could also lengthen both the rotation and the pen. This is a team with a lot of talent. Even with some injury questions, they appear to be the team in the division with the most answers to such questions. I see no reason that the Texas Rangers won't not only win the A.L. West, but also be a scary team come the fall.

2) Los Angeles Angels
In what has suddenly broken out as a major financial war with the N.L.'s Dodgers for the hearts and minds of the LA baseball fan base over the last couple of seasons, owner Artie Moreno has opened his wallet to bring in superstars Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton, and lefty pitcher C.J. Wilson. It hasn't resulted yet in any concrete results in the standings, but 2014 has a chance to be different. The biggest factor will be Pujols and Hamilton both staying healthy and returning to form as the MVP-caliber players at which level they are being paid. Pujols just turned 34, and is coming off by far the worst season of his career. Hamilton turns 33 in-season, and a bunch of those were tough years battling substance abuse. Pujols has struggled this spring, and Hamilton just got on the field after battling calf injuries. This 2nd place prediction is wholly dependant on those two being 30-homer, 100-rbi threats in the middle of the Halos lineup for most of the season. If they struggle again, the team could sink as low as 4th. Staying optimistic, I'll put them together with the game's best all-around talent in centerfielder Mike Trout to give the Angels as dynamic a potential combo as their is in all of baseball. There are solid supporting players in the lineup with middle infielders Howie Kendrick and Erick Aybar, 3rd base newcomer David Freese, catcher Chris Iannetta, and outfielder Kole Calhoun. Eternal veteran Raul Ibanez was brought in to take DH at-bats. He is likely to rotate with some leftfield play while both Pujols and Hamilton also get DH turns. This team has as much experienced depth as any to rotate those players, and if injuries strike, with Carlos Pena, Brennan Boesch, Hank Conger, Ian Stewart, Grant Green, Chad Tracy, and John McDonald on hand. On the mound, the 1-2 veteran combo at the top in Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson can compete with anyone. Weaver is one of baseball's best starters, and together their health is vital to the team contending. The guys vying for the 3rd-5th rotation spots from among a group including Hector Santiago, Garrett Richards, Tyler Skaggs, Joe Blanton, and Wade LeBlanc need to produce a couple more solid options for manager Mike Scioscia. The bullpen has great depth with the likes of Brandon Lyon, Kevin Jepsen, Fernando Salas, Joe Smith, and Sean Burnett supporting closer Ernesto Frieri. For the team from Disney World, it's all about health. They and their fans deserve a break in that area, and a chance to see this group click on all cylinders. This 2nd place and Wildcard opportunity prediction is based on them getting that chance in 2014.

3) Oakland Athletics
The two-time defending A.L. West champs just suffered what no team wants to face, the loss of their projected Opening Day starter and young staff ace just weeks before the season even begins. Jarrod Parker will need Tommy John surgery, and will be out for all of 2014. He's still plenty young enough for a full bounce-back in 2015, and to have a long, productive career ahead. But that doesn't help the A's this year. For a team run on a tight budget, they cannot afford many of these types of losses. In fact, this one alone might prove too much. However, it's not the only one. Another projected rotation stalwart, A.J. Griffin, will be out for weeks, perhaps a couple months, with his own elbow worries. The rest of the rotation will need to step up a couple of notches. Newcomer Scott Kazmir will likely have to take on the lead role, proving that his 2013 comeback season was not a fluke. Young Sonny Gray has all the talent in the world, and the rookie will need to put it all on display right away. The injuries put Dan Straily and Tommy Milone into the spotlight, with Drew Pomeranz hoping to take the 5th starter role. Straily and Milone have proven their worth before, and must now show they are ready to be rotation stalwarts. The bullpen is anchored by new closer Jim Johnson, one of the game's best over the last couple of seasons in Baltimore. Sean Doolittle, Luke Gregerson, and Ryan Cook give the A's a strength supporting him at the end of games. The hitting should be another strength, as the club has underrated batters throughout the lineup. Leading the way is the outfield of speedy veteran Coco Crisp in center, Cuban star Yoenis Cespedes in left, and the bearded wonder Josh Reddick in right. 3rd baseman Josh Donaldson and 1st baseman Brandon Moss developed into productive sluggers a year ago, and both need to show that 2013 was no fluke. Their middle infield of Jed Lowrie and the bespectacled near-miss 'Face of MLB', 2nd baseman Eric Sogard, gives them a nice doubleplay combo. They have a pair of catchers in Derek Norris and John Jaso who can both be regulars, and particularly in Jaso will get some DH at-bats. The losses in their starting rotation are extremely tough. Whether they prove devastating in the end is the challenge ahead for this team. It's hard to see the A's spending for the pieces needed to keep up with the Rangers and Angels, especially if they should lose any more. Can they find them some other way? It's hard to count out this perennial underdog franchise, but making it a division-winning three-peat will be very tough.

4) Seattle Mariners
This will be the 38th season for the 1979 expansion franchise, and 26 of those previous campaigns have been losing ones. The winning seasons came in a stretch of glory from the mid-90's through the very beginning of the 21st century, capped by the glorious 2001 season in which they set an American League record with 116 regular season victories. Remaining contenders for a couple more years, the team then pretty much collapsed over the last decade, enjoying just two winning seasons in that time. They have finished in 4th place in the division in 7 of the last 9 years, including the last 3 straight. To try and end that stretch of futility the owners surprised many when they opened their wallets this winter and brought in one of the best hitters on the planet in 2nd baseman Robinson Cano. He immediately injects much-needed talent and respect to the middle of the M's batting order. However, the supporting cast remains a group of kids and suspects, and until that changes the struggles are likely to continue. A pair of youngsters, 3rd baseman Kyle Seager and catcher Mike Zunino, are being counted on heavily into the future. Kid shortstop Brad Miller is also a key piece in the middle infield. Dustin Ackley was never able to hold down 2nd base, and now moves to the outfield. He has a long way to go in order to ever justify his selection as the 2nd overall pick in the 2009 MLB Draft, as does 1st baseman Justin Smoak, who was the 11th overall pick in the 2008 Draft and came as a key piece in the 2010 Cliff Lee trade with Texas. The outfield has a pair of solid if unspectacular players in Michael Brantley and Abraham Almonte. Both Corey Hart and Logan Morrison were brought in as free agents to lengthen the lineup. Hart has recent injury questions to overcome, and Morrision is another formerly high-rated prospect who has never really panned out as a truly productive MLB hitter. John Buck is a decent supporting bat if Zunino proves to still be not quite ready at catcher, and Willie Bloomquist provides reliable talent as an infield backup. While there are a ton of questions in the Mariners lineup, their pitching seems to be developing some answers. It's rotation is led by one of the best in the game in 'King Felix' Hernandez. Hisashi Iwakuma is a solid 2nd option as well. This team needs the trio of 25-year old James Paxton, 23-year old Erasmo Ramirez, and perhaps most especially 21-year old rookie Taijuan Walker to quickly emerge to lengthen that rotation. In the bullpen there is nice talent and depth. Fernando Rodney was signed as a free agent, and gives them one of the game's top closers. He is supported by arms such as Danny Farquhar, Tom Wilhelmsen, and Charlie Furbush. They have Blake Beavan, Scott Baker, and Hector Noesi among others around as potential middle relievers or rotation depth arms. Despite the pivotal additions of Cano and Rodney, there simply remain too many questions to pick Seattle for anything other than another 4th place finish. Can they get the right answers finally from a number of their underachievers at the plate? That's the only way that they can rise.

5) Houston Astros
This is going to be the best team in the A.L. West - in 2018. At least that is the hope of those at the top of the organization, as well as their fan base. But it has been a struggle in recent years, and probably will stay so for a couple more. The franchise was formed as the expansion Houston Colt .45's back in 1962, and became the Astros in 1965 as a nod to the emerging space age. They have bounced around in their history as well, becoming members of the NL West when divisional play begin in 1969 and remaining there through the 1993 season. They were moved to the NL Central from 1994 through 2012, and then last year completely switched leagues, moving to what is hoped will be their permanent home in the AL West. It is hoped that eventually they will emerge as a regional and divisional rival to the Texas Rangers. For now, the Astros are trying to emerge from a string of horrendous seasons. One of 3 teams in the division (Rangers, Mariners) who are among the 8 in all of baseball to have never won a World Series, the Astros reached the Fall Classic for their first and only time as recently as 2005. But since that version of the club was swept by the White Sox nearly a decade ago, they have collapsed. The last three years, Houston has finished with the worst record in baseball in successively worse seasons of 106, 107 and 111 losses. However, those horrid years have resulted in terrific MLB Draft positions, including the upcoming 1st overall pick this coming June, and the team has made the most. Now rated as having one of the best and deepest pools of prospects in the game, they are positioned to begin having success in the coming years. It's the wait until those highly-rated kids arrive that will be continue to be tough. There is some excitement in the infield where speedy Jose Altuve gives them an all-star caliber player at 2nd base. The two kids on the left side of the infield in shortstop Jonathan Villar and 3rd baseman Matt Dominguez may be long term keepers. Catcher Jason Castro is emerging as one of the best in the game behind the plate. The team brought in speedy centerfielder Dexter Fowler in hopes that the longtime Rockies outfielder can bring impact to the lineup. If any from among the trio of 1st base/DH/left field types in Jonathan Singleton, Chris Carter, and Jesus Guzman can emerge as a reliable threat, this offense should begin to produce more runs. But the pitching staff remains light years away from contending. The rotation is fronted by veteran Scott Feldman, a 4th starter at best for a contending team. The rest of the rotation will be likely filled by some combo of Brett Oberholtzer, Jared Cosart, Brad Peacock, Jerome Williams, Alex White, Dallas Kuechel, and Luke Harrell. In the bullpen, Josh Fields will try to nail down the closer slot with arms like Jesse Crain and Matt Albers in support. The Astros don't have a prayer of finishing out of the AL West basement again in 2014, and may again be contenders for the top MLB Draft pick in 2015. But there is so much talent in their minor leagues that it is not hard to envision things beginning to turn around as those kids continue to arrive in the next 2-3 years. Hang on, Houston, better days are coming...some day.

To me, right now, the Texas Rangers are clearly the class of this division. They do have a couple of injury concerns in their rotation. But they also appear to have solid options to fill any voids and still win among this group of rivals. The Angels need their stars to stay healthy and produce. If they do, they can contend for a Wildcard, maybe even push Texas for the division crown, but those are big "if" questions that will require the right answers. Oakland's early rotation injuries may prove too much for the "little engine that could" to keep winning. Both Seattle and Houston just don't look to have enough.

MLB 2014: American League Central

The 2014 MLB predictions continue today with the American League Central Division, home to half of the now 113-year old league's charter franchise clubs.

Founded in the old Western League in 1894, the Detroit Tigers are the oldest continuous one-name, one-city franchise in the American League, and one of those 8 junior circuit charter franchises.

The franchise has won 4 World Series crowns, 11 American League pennants, 3 division titles as a member of the A.L. East division, and now the last 3 consecutive division titles as a member of the A.L. Central.

For the Tigers to add a 4th consecutive division title the team will have to overcome a number of big off-season personnel losses. On the mound, starting pitcher Doug Fister was traded and setup man Joaquin Benoit left via free agency. Infielder Jhonny Peralta also left as a free agent.

But the two biggest losses to overcome will be slugging 1st baseman Prince Fielder and one of the game's top managers, Jim Leyland. Fielder was dealt to Texas, while Leyland finally walked away at age 69 after eight seasons guiding the Tigers.

Still, any team that wants the crown, and there are contenders, will have to go through Motown. Remaining are one of the game's most dominant pitchers, and the envy of many red-blooded American males as swimsuit model Kate Upton's steady date, Justin Verlander, the reigning A.L. Cy Young winner in Max Scherzer, and the best hitter on the planet, 2-time defending A.L. MVP Miguel Cabrera.

Here are my predictions for the American League Central in 2014:

1) Detroit Tigers
Sure, they suffered all of the losses that I described above. But for most of the questions raised by those losses, the team appears to have enough answers to win a 4th straight division title. On the mound, Drew Smyly should be ready to step right into Fister's steady shoes, and Rick Porcello at age 25 now should be ready to take a step forward as well. They follow behind the outstanding trio of Verlander, Scherzer, and Anibal Sanchez. Given health, that group is far and away the best rotation in the division. In the bullpen, Detroit signed Joe Nathan as the new closer, and has a talented bullpen mix with arms such as Al Alburquerque, Phil Coke, Joba Chamberlain, and future closer Bruce Rondon. The infield has a chance to be one of the best in the league. Besides the 2-time MVP in Miggy, the Tigers have veteran Ian Kinsler now at 2nd base. He came from Texas in the Fielder deal, and brings an all-star caliber of play to the middle infield. His doubleplay partner is tremendous defensive shortstop Jose Iglesias. At 3rd base, rookie Nick Castellanos will finally get a chance to show that his minor league production and prospect hype are for real. The regular DH is Victor Martinez, one of the game's elite hitters, and the catcher is the capable Alex Avila. The starting outfield trio of Austin Jackson, Andy Dirks, and consummate pro Torii Hunter is supported by speedy Rajai Davis. And Detroit has a pair of reliable bench players in Don Kelly and Steve Lombardozzi. The Tigers enter the season as the favorites to 4-peat in the A.L. Central. Whether they can win another A.L. pennant, even win their first World Series since 1984, remains to be seen.

2) Kansas City Royals
For me, it's verrry close for the runner-up spot in this division between KC and the Cleveland Indians. I'm going on a bit of a hunch with the Royals, the only franchise in the division that is not one of the original 8 charter members of the American League, feeling that perhaps they are ready to grow into a legitimate playoff contender. A year ago the team registered the first winning record since 1994, and their 86 victories were the most since 1989. The difference with the Tribe, and the main reason that I pick them for 2nd, is an under-rated starting rotation that is supported by a shutdown bullpen. 'Big Game' James Shields gives them a legit Ace at the front, and arms such as Jeremy Guthrie, Jason Vargas, Bruce Chen, Wade Davis, and Luke Hochevar are all talented, with the latter two likely battling for the 5th spot with fireballing youngster Yordano Ventura. The two who don't make the rotation will join a bullpen that includes Greg Holland as the closer, with lefty Tim Collins and righties Kelvin Herrera and Aaron Crow setting up. If healthy, that trio can be as good as any end-game trio in baseball. The everyday lineup finally began to see 1st baseman Eric Hosmer tap some of his vast raw potential in 2013. In the coming season, 3rd baseman Mike Moustakas and catcher Salvador Perez will be counted on to take similar steps forward. They join veteran leaders in DH Billy Butler and leftfielder Alex Gordon. Lorenzo Cain in center and newcomer Norichika Aoki in rightfield add nice speed, and veteran 2nd baseman Omar Infante is a steadying presence for the kids. If players like Moustakas, Perez, and Ventura actually come through as star-caliber, KC could surprise and contend for the division title. But there remain enough questions to think that the wrong answers may dump them back towards the bottom.

3) Cleveland Indians
The Indians finished in 2nd place a year ago, and earned a berth in the A.L. Wildcard playoff game where they were shutout 4-0 by Tampa Bay. The franchise has won 7 American League Central Division titles, the most recent in 2007, and the most by any of the division's 5 teams. But the franchise has won just two World Series crowns in it's 114-year existence, none since 1948, the longest such streak in the league among teams who have won it at least once. They don't appear to have enough pitching to end that World Series drought, but they might have enough to return to the playoffs, even challenge for a division title with the right breaks. The everyday lineup has depth and versatility. 1st baseman Nick Swisher brings energy and leadership on a daily basis. 2nd baseman Jason Kipnis is an all-star caliber player now, and shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera is solid. The outfield will feature speedy Michael Bourn in center, steady newcomer David Murphy in right, and multi-talented leftfielder Michael Brantley. There is depth as well with still-dangerous DH/PH Jason Giambi, infielder Mike Aviles, and IF/OF utility man Ryan Raburn. The most intriguing story line for the Tribe is the move of catcher Carlos Santana to 3rd base, a move they now appear committed to as the season opens. He is also still likely to catch a bit, with Lonnie Chisenhall getting the hot corner when he does. Yan Gomes will catch when Santana is at 3rd base. On the mound, Justin Masterson is more of a #2-type, and is now in his free agent season. Corey Kluber, Zach McAllister, and Carlos Carrasco are back and are all capable starters, though none is dominant. Young Danny Salazar gets his first full shot, and he may bring that dominant, strikeout type stuff to a rotation that could use it. Cleveland signed former Milwaukee closer John Axford to finish games, and his presence allows arms such as Vinnie Pestano, C.C. Lee, and Cody Allen to settle into what should be nice setup/matchup pieces in the bullpen. Shaun Marcum and Josh Tomlin provide the Tribe with swingmen who give the rotation depth and the pen some long arms. If Salazar proves for real, and manager Terry Francona keeps pushing the right buttons, Cleveland should at least be in the Wildcard hunt.

4) Chicago White Sox
It will be a big summer for the Chisox, no matter what happens on the field, as former superstar slugger Frank Thomas is inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame. While the team and city celebrate the career of the man known as "The Big Hurt", they hope that there will not be a repeat of last season's last place divisional finish. Aside from the fact that Minnesota just does not appear talented enough to avoid that cellar, there is room for optimism on the South Side of Chicago. That positivity begins with Cuban import 1st baseman Jose Abreu, who the team hopes can provide some of the type of pop that Thomas once gave their lineup. Another newcomer, centerfielder Adam Eaton, is expected to bring speed and energy to the top of the lineup. Even with those new bats, young outfielders Avisail Garcia and Dayan Viciedo must step up and produce if the club is to rise beyond 4th place. The club would also love to see prospect Matt Davidson, who arrived from Arizona along with Eaton, take the 3rd base job away from Conor Gillaspie. Speedy Alejandro De Aza in the outfield, and steady vet Jeff Keppinger in the infield, provide lineup depth. At the DH spot the club is likely to split veteran sluggers Adam Dunn and Paul Konerko, the latter in a swan song for the Sox former hero. On the mound, young lefty Chris Sale gives the club a true Ace to build upon. Veteran John Danks needs to stay healthy and remain another strong option. Behind them, a pair of youngsters in Jose Quintana and Erik Johnson are likely to take steady rotation turns. Felipe Paulino and Andre Rienzo provide depth to the rotation and pen. If Nate Jones can shoulder the closer role, then arms such as Matt Lindstrom, Ronald Belisario, Mitchell Boggs, and Scott Downs could make the bullpen a strength. The White Sox could use a couple more reliable rotation arms. But if what they have should overachieve, and the kid bats come through, it could be an interesting season for the Pale Hose. Right now, that has to be seen before it can be believed.

5) Minnesota Twins
The Twins are really bad right now. So bad that it's hard to remember that in the last decade they were the division's dominant team. Winning 6 of 10 division titles, and nearly a 7th, the Twins and the "M&M Boys", stars Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, were constant contenders. Despite all those division titles, those teams did not have much playoff success. They will have to wait awhile before even talking about playoffs again. Mauer, a hometown crown jewel player, is moving from his longtime home behind the plate and out to 1st base, where he is likely to spend the remainder of his career. He will never be a prototypical slugger at the position, so will have to keep his batting average and on-base percentage high while proving that he is not a defensive liability at his new position in order for him to not become a problem for the team as it moves forward. The rest of the infield is average at best, with Brian Dozier at 2nd, Pedro Florimon at short, and Trevor Plouffe at 3rd. The catcher will be some combo of veteran Kurt Suzuki and young Josmil Pinto. Reliable vet outfielder Josh Willingham gives them some pop, and Oswaldo Arcia is a coming young run-producer. The rest of their production and depth will come from a questionable mix of Alex Presley, Chris Herrmann, and Eduardo Escobar. It's not much better on the mound. The rotation has some experience with Kevin Correia, Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes, Mike Pelfrey, Samuel Deduno, Scott Diamond, and Brian Duensing all in the mix. But none are close to being a true Ace. Closer Glen Perkins is solid, and might be trade bait in the end. The arms that don't make the rotation will join Anthony Swarzak and Jared Burton to fill out the pen. The Twins do have a pair of elite prospects, two of the best in baseball in Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano. But Sano suffered an injury that likely leaves him out until 2015, and backs his arrival up until at least mid-season next year. It may be 2016 before those two arrive and help begin to truly turn things around in the Twin Cities.

The Tigers were somewhat weakened in the off-season, and should their pair of superstars in Verlander and Cabrera have any injuries or production slippage, either or both of the Royals or Indians could put it all together and beat them out. But for now, Detroit still looks like the best team in the division, and they also look to be the team with the most answers should troubles strike. New manager and former catcher Brad Ausmus should be able to pick up where Leyland left off, winning a 4th straight division title. And they have enough talent that, with health and everyone producing to their capabilities, they could return to the World Series, where they lost in both 2006 and 2012.

MLB 2014: American League East

My countdown to the 2014 Major League Baseball season begins here, with predictions for the upcoming season in the always rough-n-tumble American League East Division.

This is the home of the defending World Series champion Boston Red Sox, winners of three rings over the past decade.

It is also the home of baseball's crown jewel franchise, the New York Yankees. A year ago, the Yanks struggled through injury and controversy during a swan song season for legendary closer Mariano Rivera. This year it's equally legendary shortstop Derek Jeter's turn.

Remember that I said it here: there is simply no more important player to the success or struggle of their team in the division in the coming season than the Yankees team captain.

The Alex Rodriguez controversy may now be in their rear view mirror, but his absence leaves a gaping hole for now at 3rd base. With the departure of superstar 2nd baseman Robinson Cano to Seattle via free agency, half of the Yanks infield is suspect.

Jeter must stay healthy all year, and come through with a season resembling his career norms in production, if New York is to have any chance at catching Boston.

That said, here is my predicted order of finish for the 2014 American League East Division:

1) Boston Red Sox
There is simply no reason to not pick the defending champs to successfully defend their crown. A year ago, Boston went from worst-to-first and a World Series title. With reasonable health, they will be one of the top contenders for that title again in 2014. The infield features proven gamer vets on the right side in Mike Napoli and Dustin Pedroia, and young star-quality on the left side in shortstop Xander Boegarts and 3rd baseman Will Middlebrooks. Catching is now in the capable hands of veteran A.J. Pierzynski. The outfield is a strong, eclectic mix of Shane Victorino, Daniel Nava, Jonny Gomes, Jackie Bradley Jr, and the comebacking Grady Sizemore. And then there is the ever-present DH and team leader in David 'Big Papi' Ortiz. On the mound, the Bosox come at you with a strong 4-man rotation of Jon Lester, John Lackey, Clay Buchholz and Jake Peavy. Their 5th starter, Felix Doubront, is more than capable on his turn. They signed veteran Chris Capuano for insurance, and have enviable depth building up in their farm system should injuries strike. In the bullpen, Koji Uehara was a revelation a year ago, and is back as the closer. His support now includes former Cardinals closer Edward Mujica. There is plenty of talent in the rest of the division. But the Red Sox have the talent, depth, and versatility to win it again, and keep on winning for the foreseeable future.

2) Tampa Bay Rays
The consistent divisional over-achievers appear primed once again, led by manager Joe Maddon, one of the very best in the game, to contend for a playoff spot. They may not have enough offense to stay with Boston, but pitching is the name of the game in Tampa, and the Rays have plenty of it. Ace lefty David Price fronts the rotation which also includes talented youngsters Alex Cobb, Matt Moore, Chris Archer, and Jake Odorizzi. Moore has a ton of talent in his own left arm, and if he can fully harness it, he could become a Cy Young contender and turn Price into trade bait, especially if Tampa falls out of contention early for some reason. The bullpen has tremendous depth, including experienced setup man Heath Bell and new closer Grant Balfour. The everyday lineup is led by 3rd baseman Evan Longoria, the single most irreplaceable player in the Rays batting order. The rest of the infield is manned by veteran, strong-gloved 1st baseman James Loney, versatile 2nd sacker Ben Zobrist, and another strong glove in shortstop Yunel Escobar. Behind the plate, the Ryan Hanigan-Jose Molina combo is steady. The outfield features a pair of young players that really need to produce in order for the Rays to contend for more than a Wildcard. Those players are rightfielder Wil Myers and centerfielder Desmond Jennings. Matt Joyce provides a veteran bat to split leftfield and DH at-bats with David DeJesus. Sean Rodriguez and Logan Forsythe are capable, versatile IF/OF backups, but not impact players if called upon to do much more in the event of key injuries. As usual, this Rays group gives Maddon many options and buttons to push. If most of the key guys stay healthy, and he keeps on pushing the right ones, there is no reason that Tampa shouldn't again be a strong post-season contender.

3) New York Yankees
The Yanks finished tied for 3rd a year ago, and despite signing a few high-profile, high-salaried free agents, they simply have not gotten noticeably better for the 2014 season. Why? Because they lost almost as much as they gained. This is a tough team to get a read on for a number of reasons. In the infield, they are counting on full comebacks from Mark Teixeira and Derek Jeter. Tex played just 15 games a year ago, and will play the season at 34 years of age. The Captain turns 40 this summer, and played in just 17 games a year ago. With all-star 2nd baseman Robinson Cano and PED-tainted star 3rd baseman Alex Rodriguez both gone, full comebacks to their old selves is a must for New York to do anything. In the outfield, the Yanks are much better off, with speedy Brett Gardner returning and now joined by a pair of talented free agent signees in centerfielder Jacoby Ellsbury and rightfielder Carlos Beltran. The team also signed all-star catcher Brian McCann, who should be come a true superstar and likely the next team leader in the Bronx. Alfonso Soriano is back as the DH, and teams with Ichiro Suzuki to give the club some nice, veteran depth. On the mound, C.C. Sabathia still leads the rotation, and needs to return to Ace-level. A year ago, his ERA rose by almost a run-and-a-half, and he allowed more hits than innings pitched for the first time in his big league career. In better shape, he must show that 2013 wasn't the start of a steady career slippage. Hiroki Kuroda and Ivan Nova give the club two more solid options. But it may be big Japanese free agent signee Masahiro Tanaka whose performance helps push the club to contend for a Wildcard playoff spot. Another key will be David Robertson, one of the best setup men in the game for the last few years, who now takes on the unenviable task of following in legendary closer Mariano Rivera's footsteps. The rest of the bullpen is largely a question mark, and this group could prove to be fatally flawed. The Yankees have big questions in their infield and bullpen. If they stay healthy and answer those questions with in-season moves, there are enough stars to contend. Those are a lot of "ifs" for baseball's richest franchise.

4) Baltimore Orioles
After a Cinderella playoff season in 2012, the O's again had a winning record a year ago, but slipped back to a tie for 3rd with the Yankees. They could finish anywhere from 2nd to 5th in 2014, and it will be their pitching staff that tells the final tale. Ubaldo Jimenez was a late-winter signing as a free agent, and if he approximates his fine comeback season from a year ago in Cleveland, he will be just what the doctor ordered at the front of manager Buck Showalter's rotation. His presence allows youngsters Miguel Gonzalez, Chris Tillman, and Bud Norris to drop back to more comfortable supporting roles. Wei-Yin Chen gives Baltimore depth and a nice 5th option as well. In the bullpen, Tommy Hunter likely gets the first shot at closing. Whomever gets that job has a lot to replace, as Jim Johnson left via free agency and took consecutive 50-save seasons with him. There are a number of interesting, talented arms that should be able to fill out the pen, including strong setup man Darren O'Day. The everyday lineup is much more dependable and talented. A year ago, 1st baseman Chris Davis emerged as one of baseball's top run producers. Along with shortstop J.J. Hardy and mega-talented youngster Manny Machado on the left side, the infield should be a strength for Baltimore. That depends on Machado himself coming back fully from off-season knee surgery, but the future star has progressed nicely to this point. They could use either Jonathan Schoop or Ryan Flaherty to emerge as a true MLB-starting caliber 2nd baseman to fullly solidify the group. In the outfield, the trio of Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, and Nolan Reimold has as much talent as any in the game if they stay healthy. The Orioles signed veteran slugger Nelson Cruz, who will play some outfield and be the regular DH. His power bat really lengthens the O's offense. Catcher Matt Wieters is a longball threat and one of the game's best defenders. There is no proven bench, so the starters need to stay healthy and productive. If Buck finds a way to get the rotation to over-achieve a bit, the Orioles can contend for a playoff berth. If injuries strike the lineup and the pitching proves average or worse, they could sink to the bottom.

5) Toronto Blue Jays
A year ago, Toronto had gone on an off-season free agent shopping spree, and the results had them pegged as divisional favorites by many, including me. Now a year later, with basically the same crew back, I'm picking them for the AL East basement. What went wrong? Last year it was the tell-tale combination of injuries and under-performance. This year, it's the fact that the rest of the division has improved, while the Jays have much to prove. The everyday lineup has enough big bats to bash with anyone, if they stay healthy. The big pieces are 1st baseman Edwin Encarnacion, shortstop Jose Reyes, and outfielder Jose Bautista. 3rd baseman Brett Lawrie is a potential all-star talent who the club is counting on to develop quickly to fulfill that potential. The outfield has Colby Rasmus and Melky Cabrera, a pair of talented players, each with something to prove in 2014. If those last three come through, this lineup will be truly deep. There might be a hole at 2nd base, but young Ryan Goins will get first shot, and he appears to at least be a nice glove man. Veteran catchers Dioner Navarro and Josh Thole should keep them competitive at that position. The bullpen has a chance to be real good, especially if closer Casey Janssen can be healthy and pitches to his potential. Arms including Aaron Loup, Steve Delabar, and Sergio Santos give them talent and depth. The rotation is where the big questions lie, and possibly where their fatal flaw lies as well. Mark Buehrle is one of the most consistent, steady winners in the game over the last decade. At 35-yrs old this season, he needs to stay that consistent, because every other arm in that rotation is a question mark. Knuckleballer R.A. Dickey is now 39-years old, and while he wasn't bad a year ago, he was nowhere near the Cy Young Award winner that he had been in his final Mets season of 2012. Following the 2011 season, Brandon Morrow looked like one of the best starting pitchers emerging in the game, but each of the last two seasons has been injury-marred. He has the talent to be a big winner, but turning 30 this summer he needs to stay healthy. After those three, it's a big drop to choices like J.A. Happ, Esmil Rogers, Drew Hutchison, and Todd Redmond. Unless the Blue Jays somehow find answers in that rotation, they will find it tough to keep up in this division over time, despite their offensive talents.

I don't see any of the other teams as having the overall depth and talent to unseat the Red Sox at the top. Boston remains a strong World Series contender once again. The rest of the clubs have the talent to finish 2nd and to gain a Wildcard playoff spot. They also have enough questions to finish 5th and find themselves dismantling and rebuilding by the time it's all over. Watching the 2014 season play out should be no more interesting in MLB than here in the American League East Division.

Captain Clutch Ending an Era

For any true baseball fan, yesterday's public announcement that New York Yankees shortstop and team captain Derek Jeter was retiring as a professional player is truly the end of an era.

For myself specifically, it is yet another reminder that I am getting older too. And it also marks a fantasy baseball loss to me, one that I will comment on more in a moment. But first let's take a look at Jeter's real world playing career, and a glance into his highly publicized personal life.

Derek Jeter broke into the big leagues on May 29th, 1995. To put this into a personal context, I was just 33 years old, and it was more than four months before my wife and I were married - we just celebrated our 18th wedding anniversary this past fall. He was only 19 years old then. A day later he recorded his first two career hits for the Yankees. The team was the most storied franchise in baseball history, but it had fallen on hard times.

It may be hard for some to remember, but at the time of Jeter's arrival in a Yankees uniform the franchise had not won an AL East title or American League pennant in 15 years, and at that point it was 18 years since their last World Series crown. From 1987-92, the Yanks finished no higher than 4th place in their division, the last four of those with losing records.

TheYanks began to emerge from those dark days with a 2nd place finish in the 1993 season, and in 1994 were solid contenders when the devastating lockout hit all of Major League Baseball, ending the season prematurely. Having re-emerged as a contender, the usually big spending Yankees were uncharacteristically infused for the 1995 season with talented, homegrown talent in the form of what has become famously known as the "Core Four" players.

That core was made up of Jeter, catcher Jorge Posada, starting pitcher Andy Pettitte, and relief pitcher Mariano Rivera. The four had all played together throughout their minor league careers, and all broke into the big leagues together in that 1995 season. Together they would lift the Yankees franchise back to the top of the game, starring together on baseball's biggest stage for the next 17 seasons.

In that very first season together, Jeter helped lead the Yankees back to the playoffs, with a 2nd place finish in the AL East and a Wildcard playoff berth. In those playoffs, they would lose in dramatic fashion to the Seattle Mariners, a team featuring baseball's top two young superstars in Ken Griffey Jr. and Alex Rodriguez, the latter of whom would ultimately become a major part of Jeter's career.

The following 1996 season was Jeter's first full MLB season. Expected to be a strong fielding shortstop who tossed in a few hits now and then, he quickly showed that he was so much more. He hit .314, knocked in 78 runs, scored 104 runs, and was named the American League Rookie of the Year. Not only that, but he led the Yankees to the AL East title, AL pennant, and their first World Series crown in 28 years.

After finishing in 2nd place in 1997 and losing a heart-breaking 3-2 playoff series to the Cleveland Indians, Jeter and the Yankees would go on an unprecedented modern day roll. They would win 9 straight AL East titles from 1998-2006, and 3 straight World Series from 1998-2000. They reached the Series again following the attacks of 9/11 in 2001, losing one of the greatest World Series in history to the Arizona Diamondbacks in 7 games.

Thanks to a game-winning walkoff homerun in Game #4 of that 2001 World Series, Jeter earned one of his two nicknames as "Mr. November", based on the fact that the game, which began on Halloween night, had moved past midnight, and thus he hit the dramatic homerun in the first-ever MLB game being formally played in the month of November. It was also an homage to the "Mr. October" nickname of former Yankees legend Reggie Jackson.

During the playoffs earlier in that 2001 post-season, Jeter perfectly highlighted his other "Captain Clutch" nickname, bestowed upon him because of the numerous clutch hits and defensive plays which he had a penchant for delivering. Jeter helped beat the upstart Oakland A's with a heads-up defensive masterpiece that has become known in baseball lore simply as "The Flip", a play that you have to see and would need a genuine understanding of the game to fully appreciate.

In 2003, the Yankees returned to the World Series as favorites, but were stunned by a young, talented Florida Marlins team. But they continued to win throughout the first decade of the new century as Jeter was joined the following season of 2004 by Rodriguez, one of baseball's top shortstops himself who moved over to 3rd base in deference to the presence of the Yankee captain.

Jeter and ARod would play next to each other on the left side of the Yankees infield for much of the 10 seasons between 2004-2013, and the two became close, personal friends as well. Jeter was almost exactly one year older, and so the pair were a couple of highly paid, highly publicized superstars playing together in the Big Apple during the entirety of their 30's.

The two would reach the pinnacle of their playing careers together in 2009 when they would lead the Yankees past the defending World Champion Philadelphia Phillies in the World Series. That 2009 season was one of six in which the pair would lead the Yankees to a 1st place finish in the AL East. It all began to fall apart with the growing revelations of Rodriguez' use of PED's, but that is a story for another day.

From 1996-2012, Derek Jeter has not only been a constant as the starting shortstop on the field for the New York Yankees, he has been a leader as well, serving as the team captain since the 2003 season. During that period, the team has won a dozen AL East titles, 7 American League pennants, and 5 World Series championships.

During the bulk of that period, Jeter has mostly been the picture of reliable health. He appeared in at least 148 of the Yankees 162 regular season games during 15 of the 17 seasons between 1996-2012. But he didn't just "appear", he excelled. Jeter has proven over time that he is in the conversation for the title of "Best Shortstop of All-Time" in Major League Baseball.

In addition to his Rookie of the Year Award, Derek Jeter has been an All-Star 13x, has finished in the top 10 of MVP voting 7x, and has 5 Gold Gloves. He has a career .312 batting average and .381 on-base percentage over almost 12,000 plate appearances. Never known as a true power hitter or speed demon, he nonetheless has accumulated 256 homeruns and 348 steals, showing that he can beat you with his bat and his legs as well as his glove.

In 2000, Jeter was the Most Valuable Player of the MLB All-Star Game and was that year's World Series Most Valuable Player. He has won 5 Hank Aaron Awards and 2 Silver Sluggers as the best hitting shortstop, and a Roberto Clemente Award for his contributions off the field to the community.

For the franchise of legends such as Ruth, Gehrig, DiMaggio, Mantle, Jackson and more, Derek Jeter has become the all-time leader in hits, games played, stolen bases, and at-bats while playing in an era of specialty pitching, with much longer travel requirements and closer public scrutiny on the massive public stage that is New York in the age of mass media.

On that public stage, Jeter's personal life has been magnified. A young, single, attractive star during his 20's in the 1990's and his 30's in the 2000's, Jeter has been linked romantically with a number of high profile young ladies. It was just reported that he recently broke up with magazine covergirl and Sports Illustrated model Hannah Davis. In 1997 and 1998 he dated superstar singer Mariah Carey, something she has publicly acknowledged.

At various times he had relationships with Miss Universe 2000 and Bollywood star Laura Dutta, Latino singer Joy Enriquez, TV actress Jordana Brewster, TV host (and now Mrs. Nick Lachey) Vanessa Minnillo, Victoria's Secret model Adriana Lima, fitness model Vida Guerra, and Hollywood actresses Jessica Biel, Jessica Alba, and Minka Kelly. He has appeared on "Seinfeld", as host of "Saturday Night Live", and in a couple of motion picture bit parts.

My link with him in the fantasy baseball world began when he was a young player. In the summer of 1998 during his 3rd full season, I became involved with the beginning of a "keeper-style" league that is now about to begin it's 17th season. At that time, 10 of us drafted from among every player in baseball, and I selected Jeter with my 2nd round choice, the 13th overall pick in that draft. He would be my starting shortstop for the next 5 seasons, leading my Philadelphia Athletics team to it's first title in 2002.

After dealing Jeter away, I reaquired him for the 2004 season, and then again as a throw-in in a trade prior to last season. He has been a big part of the success of my own fantasy baseball history, and now for 2014 will appropriately go out in our Whitey Fantasy Baseball League with the franchise that for which he began.

The 2014 season will hopefully prove to be a much more fitting farewell for this great player than was his devastating 2013 season. During the 2012 playoffs, Jeter suffered a severe ankle injury. He was able to appear in only parts of 17 games last year as the injury proved much more difficult to heal than was anticipated.

He also watched as his old buddy ARod went through the PED revelations and his own injury troubles, and as the other members of that "Core Four" all made the decision to retire themselves. Posada, perhaps Jeter's best friend and for whom Jeter stood as Best Man, retired after the 2011 season. Both Pettitte and Rivera retired following last season, Mariano memorably crying on the Yankee Stadium mound when Jeter and Pettitte took him out of his final game.

In addition to these losses and challenges, there have been a number of others. Their longtime manager, Joe Torre, left the Yankees following the 2007 season. Longtime owner George Steinbrenner died during the summer of 2010, as did iconic Yankee Stadium announcer Bob Sheppard. His recorded voice still announces each Jeter at-bat. Derek's final such at-bat at the stadium will be the final time Sheppard's voice is heard there after more than a half century.

Derek Jeter is a New York Yankees icon, and a no-doubt first ballot Hall of Famer when he is eligible. We should see his enshrinement at a ceremony in the summer of 2020. He will move into the next phase of his life, possibly in some other role within the game as a broadcaster or coach. Almost certainly we will see him settle down and establish a family of his own.

All reports at this early stage of preparations for the coming 2014 season are positive as far as his health. Let's hope that he gets to enjoy one last hurrah on the big stage of the big leagues in the Big Apple. If he does, we will all get to enjoy one last year with the man who I personally consider the greatest shortstop to ever play the game, one of the greatest that I've ever seen. It's the end of an era, and let's all hope it ends as gloriously as Derek Jeter's legend deserves.