Mickey Moniak beginning to look like a worthy top draft pick

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Moniak was the top overall pick in the 2016 MLB Draft

During their recent half-decade plummet to the bottom of the National League standings, the Philadelphia Phillies found themselves picking at a high position in the annual MLB Amateur Draft on a regular basis.

The Phillies had such a horrendous season in 2015 that their 63-99 record proved to be the worst in all of Major League Baseball. That set the club up with the #1 overall pick of the 2016 MLB Draft.

This was going to be far from a slam-dunk selection. Sure, the draft has yielded some true impact players with that first overall pick. Since the turn of the century, that top pick has produced stars in Joe Mauer, David Price, Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper, Gerrit Cole, and  Carlos Correa.

However, there have been as many misses as hits. Players selected #1 overall since the year 2000 also include Bryan Bullington (2002), Delmon Young (2003), Matt Bush (2004), Mark Appel (2013), and Brady Aiken (2014). Some were injury casualties. Some simply never developed as hoped.

Others made an impact, but it would be hard to say that they justified a first overall draft selection: Luke Hochevar (2006) and Tim Beckham (2008) fall into this category.

Even Justin Upton, taken first overall in 2005, has to be considered an overall disappointment when considering he was the top draft pick. Dansby Swanson, the top selection in the 2015 draft by the Arizona Diamondbacks, is just emerging this year as an impact player after being traded to the Atlanta Braves.

In June of 2016, Matt Klentak was overseeing his first draft as the general manager of the Phillies. Johnny Almaraz was the club’s head of amateur scouting at the time. When MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred stepped to the podium to announce the selection, he called the name of Mickey Moniak, an outfielder from La Costa Canyon High School in Carlsbad, California.

Minnesota Twins visit Citizens Bank Park for first time since 2010

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First-year manager Rocco Baldelli leads the Twins into Philly

The Philadelphia Phillies (4-1) return home following a brief but eventful two-game series split with the division rival Washington Nationals down at Nationals Park in our nation’s capital earlier this week.

The pair of emotional games in D.C., especially Tuesday night’s nationally televised tilt, were important on many fronts. One was that it allowed these two teams, who many feel will battle for the NL East Division crown, to size one another up.

Another was that it allowed new Phillies superstar Bryce Harper to get the drama of returning to the place where he played the first seven seasons of his big-league career out of the way with in the early days of the season.

With that drama behind them the club can begin to focus on the lengthy six-month regular season. The Phillies should also begin to settle into much more of a normal baseball routine now as well. After experiencing three off-days over the first week there will be just two more over the rest of the month of April.

MINNESOTA TWINS COME TO TOWN

The Phillies welcome in the Minnesota Twins (4-1) of the American League Central Division for the first interleague series of the 2019 campaign. The two teams have not met since a three-game set at Target Field in Minnesota back in June of 2016, and this is their first series against one another at Citizens Bank Park since June of 2010. The Twins hold a 10-8 edge in the all-time series between the clubs.

Minnesota has won three in a row entering this series to take an early lead in that AL Central Division race. Each of their last two victories have come thanks to late inning rallies in Kansas City.

Despite the retirement of popular hometown franchise icon Joe Mauer, the Twins were a popular choice among many preseason pundits as a surprise American League playoff contender.

Carlos Santana trade to the Twins may make most sense for Phillies

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Speculation on a Santana trade is increasing with the Twins a logical destination

Much speculation has developed in recent days that the Philadelphia Phillies could be looking to deal away first baseman Carlos Santana.

While I had previously pushed that possibility here at Phillies Nation, the notion gained real traction with a report earlier this week from MLB insider Ken Rosenthal that the Phillies were “shopping the hell” out of Santana.

It should be fairly obvious as to why the Phillies would be trying to move on from this player and contract. Spending $40 million over the next two years for a 33-34 year old whose best position is also best for your top current offensive player, Rhys Hoskins, seems to make little sense.

But with that in mind, are there any teams out there for whom Santana would make sense? Where might Phillies GM Matt Klentak look to find a match in such a trade?

Tim Dierkes at MLB Trade Rumors examined the situation in detail today and came up with a case for 14 different teams, nearly half of the clubs in Major League Baseball, to add Santana to their mix.

In breaking down Santana himself as a player, the limited number of teams who are probably actually looking to add such a player, the financial situations of the other ball clubs, and the other available options on the market, Dierkes made the following observation:

“…in reality there are enough cheaper alternatives on the market that the Phillies will have to kick in at least $10MM, or else take back a contract or attach a prospect.”

Less than a handful of teams would appear to actually make sense in such a deal. A genuine case can be made that a match could be found with the Houston Astros, Tampa Bay Rays, Chicago White Sox, and Minnesota Twins.

As Dierkes pointed out in his piece, Joe Mauer has retired and Logan Morrison is now a free agent. Those two combined to handle 140 games at the first base position in Minnesota in the 2018 season.

Minnesota has just $24.5 million in guaranteed contracts on the books for next season, and none at all in 2020. Cots Contracts estimates the Twins payroll for next season to reach just past the $70 million mark, and then drop precipitously in the 2020 campaign.

With the team’s payroll having exceeded the $100 million mark in six of the last eight seasons, peaking at nearly $129 million last year, Minnesota can certainly afford the Santana contract. At the very least they could afford half of the deal, which would help the Phillies financial situation.

Time for Matt Klentak to deal away Carlos Santana

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(Giving Santana $60 million in his low-30's was a mistake from the start)

In December 2017, Philadelphia Phillies general manager Matt Klentak signed first baseman Carlos Santana as a free agent. The Phillies GM gave Santana a guaranteed three-year, $60 million deal that would take him from his age 32 through age 34 seasons.

The move was unnecessary right from the start. The Phillies already appeared set with Rhys Hoskins entering his age 25 season at the first base position.

Hoskins had belted 18 homers and drove in 48 runs with a .396 on-base percentage and .618 slugging percentage over just 50 games during his outstanding 2017 rookie campaign.

He is never going to be a Gold Glover anywhere he plays, and so first base is easily the best place for Hoskins. Over parts of four minor league seasons he appeared in a grand total of four games in left field, all just prior to his 2017 promotion.

Hoskins cannot become a free agent until after the 2023 season, so the Phillies should have been set at first base for at least the next half-dozen years.

Santana would produce a season in which he was second on the Phillies to Hoskins in both home runs (24) and RBI (86), which are roughly his career-average levels. However, he also hit for a pitiful .229 batting average.

Santana had a mediocre 2018, and there doesn’t appear to be an opening for him in 2019 with Phillies (Photo by Arturo Pardavila III)

Trying to squeeze some offense out of his lineup, Klentak reached for Santana. It didn’t work. The Phillies were one of baseball’s statistically worst offensive teams all year long.

And in making the move, Klentak also hurt the team defense by moving Hoskins out in left field. The Phillies overall defense was also one of baseball’s worst this past season.

First base was and remains the best position for Santana. Over eight big league seasons he had been a catcher and first baseman. The former was when he was a young player, the latter in recent years. He played just 26 games at third base, all when in his prime at age 28 in the 2014 season.

Down the stretch, with the season already lost thanks to a Phillies collapse over the final seven weeks, the team seemed to admit its mistake. Hoskins was returned to first base, playing there in 11 of the final 17 games and six of the last seven.

Meanwhile, Santana was moved across the infield to the hot corner. He appeared in 18 of the last 27 games there. Regular third baseman Maikel Franco had begun experiencing pain in his wrist, then suffered a shoulder injury while diving into a camera well during a September 11 doubleheader. Franco would play in just nine September games.

Through a late-August road trip prior to the onset of his physical troubles, Franco was arguably having a better season than Santana. He was hitting for a .276 average with 22 homers and 66 RBI in 119 games, a pace that would have seen him finish with roughly 30 homers and 90 RBI. He is certainly a better defensive third baseman.

The Phillies should again be set at both corners. Hoskins is apparently back as the regular first baseman. As our Tim Kelly reported here at Phillies Nation two weeks ago, the Phillies sound committed to Hoskins playing first base in 2019. Across the diamond, Franco is clearly the better option. He also cannot become a free agent until after the 2021 season.

Now as the Phillies begin preparations for 2019, it is time to recognize fully the Santana mistake, and turn the page from the player who will turn 33-years-old early next season. The worst thing that the club could do is enter spring training with any ambiguity involving two key young players.

There are two ways to handle the Santana situation. Either is fine with me. First and best, trade him to another team for something of value. You aren’t going to get much for an aging, limited player making $40 million over the next two years. But maybe if you take on most or all of that contract you can get something decent.

Why the Yankees / Twins will win the AL Wildcard Game

Twins visit the Yankees for the 2017 AL Wildcard Game

On Tuesday night at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, the New York Yankees will host the Minnesota Twins in the American League Wildcard Game.

The Yanks are skippered by Joe Girardi, who has never experienced a losing season in his 10 years at the helm.

Girardi has accumulated a 910-710 record, and led the team to three AL East Division crowns. He also guided baseball's marquee franchise to their most recent World Series championship back in the fall of 2009.

Girardi accumulated 1,100 hits across 15 seasons in the big leagues, which included four in Yankee pin stripes. Those four years, from 1996-99, coincided with the franchise' most recent dynastic run. Girardi would win three World Series rings as a player with those Yankees teams.

Over in the visiting dugout, the Twins will be guided by Paul Molitor. One of the greatest hitters of all-time, the Hall of Famer amassed 3,319 base knocks over a storied 21-year career. He was a 7x All-Star and a 4x Silver Slugger Award winner.

Molitor was the MVP of the 1993 World Series while a player with the Toronto Blue Jays, and was also runner-up for both the 1978 AL Rookie of the Year and 1993 AL Most Valuable Player awards.

As the Twins manager, the Saint Paul native has compiled a 227-259 record over three seasons. Two of his three years have resulted in winnings campaigns. But a year ago, his Twins club finished at 59-103, the worst record in baseball.

This season, Girardi's Yankees finished at 91-71, just two games behind the arch-rival Boston Red Sox in the AL East. Molitor's Twins team was one of baseball's most unlikely stories, and finished 85-77, good enough to capture the second AL Wildcard spot by five games.

During the first decade of this century, the Yankees ousted the Twins from the American League Postseason four times. New York defeated Minnesota in the ALDS in 2003, 2004, 2009 and 2010, the last two coming in three-game sweeps.

The host Yankees will enter the game as favorites, and prohibitive ones to many prognosticators. However, there are very good reasons to believe that each of these teams can win, moving on to a date with the defending AL champion Cleveland Indians in the ALDS.

Twins Paul Molitor should be the AL Manager of the Year

Molitor has guided surprising Twins to verge of postseason

The Minnesota Twins downed the repeat AL Central Division champion Cleveland Indians on Tuesday by an 8-6 score at Progressive Field.

With the victory, Minnesota lowered it's 'Magic Number' to just 1 in order to clinch the final American League Wildcard playoff berth.

It appears to be a forgone conclusion at this point. A year after finishing 59-103, the worst record in all of MLB, the Twins are going to the playoffs.

There are many reasons that one can point to when looking for reasons as to how this happened. They have developed a versatile lineup. There is a chance that they finish with five hitters who each slam 20+ home runs, and 4-5 players who could steal bases in double digits.

On the mound, rookie Jose Berrios has been everything that the organization hoped as he climbed through their system to become a top prospect.

Berrios has gone 13-8 with a 3.93 ERA. The 23-year old righty has allowed just 129 hits over 144.1 innings in his 25 starts. His emergence has given the Twins a legit 1-2 rotation punch with veteran Ervin Santana.

They are receiving strong leadership and somewhat of a turn-back-the clock season of production from veteran Joe Mauer.

The popular St. Paul native is enjoying his best season since 2013, when he was honored with the last of his six career AL All-Star appearances and his fifth career Silver Slugger.

But possibly the biggest reason for Minnesota's success has been the performance of yet another homegrown product, manager Paul Molitor.

Twins win in wild walkoff to maintain AL Wildcard cushion

Twins fans react to Rosario's first career walkoff homer

Into the 8th inning on Wednesday night, the Minnesota Twins clung to a 1-0 lead over the San Diego Padres. 

The game meant nothing to San Diego, fifteen games below the .500 mark and eliminated from postseason consideration almost from the moment the season opened.

But for the Twins, every game means something. Minnesota finished with the worst record in Major League Baseball a year ago. Now in this magical 2017 season, Hall of Famer Paul Molitor‘s club has turned it around.

Coming into this Wednesday night affair at Target Field, the host Twins were in control of the second AL Wildcard playoff berth with less than three weeks remaining. There have been a half-dozen teams chasing them for weeks. Every victory is precious now.

So when 24-year old Padres catcher Austin Hedges blasted his 16th home run of the season off Twins reliever Trevor Hildenberger in that 8th frame to tie the game, it was huge.

There's An MLB Draft Too?

There is always a great deal of publicity and conversation in the sports world regarding the NFL Draft and even the NBA Draft process each year.

But outside of it's most die-hard fans, few others may realize that Major League Baseball also conducts it's own draft process each year.

One of the main reasons that the NFL/NBA Drafts get more publicity is the nature of those professional sports and how they break in new players. The very best, the top draftees, and even many not at the very top of the selection process, become starters or key contributors for their pro teams in their first season of play, or shortly thereafter. So a player taken 1st overall in the NFL or NBA may start and even become a star right away.

In the MLB First-Year-Player Draft, the honor of being selected, even for those in the first round at the very top of the Draft board, is just the beginning of a process of professional development through the minor league systems that frequently takes years to unfold. Most fans of a Major League team have no clue what the player taken by their favorite team in last year's Draft even looks like. In fact, many have no clue of even the name of those players.

In MLB, even the best, such as Mike Trout shown in the picture above after being selected in the 2009 MLB Draft, will take at least a couple of years to play at the Major League Baseball level. That is, assuming they make it at all. There is no more difficult task in all of sport than to hit a baseball thrown by a pro pitcher. And for those pitchers, remaining healthy is a growing challenge and concern.

A look back at four decades of MLB Draft history gives you a good picture of just how unpredictable even the very top pick, the #1 overall selection, will be as far as eventually enjoying success at the highest level. Since going to the current system in 1965, only two of those top draftees are sure-fire Hall of Famers: Ken Griffey Jr (1987) and Chipper Jones (1990), with Alex Rodriguez (1993) to be a most interesting such case one day.

Among the top draftees, a number had strong careers, making an impact on the game for a number of years, though none to that Hall-worthy level. These players include the likes of Rick Monday (65), Harold Baines (77), Darryl Strawberry (80), and a handful of others.

In more recent years, only Joe Mauer (01) is likely to even be in the Hall of Fame conversation at this point. For players such as David Price (07), Stephen Strasburg (09), and Bryce Harper (10), all former top overall selections of recent vintage, it is way too early to even speculate on their talents translating into the longterm success needed to reach the Hall of Fame.

On the flip side, there have been many more notable "busts" selected with the #1 pick than there have been even eventual All-Star selections. Among those forgettable players selected first overall are Steve Chilcott (66), Dave Roberts (72), David Clyde (73), Al Chambers (79), Shawn Abner (84), Paul Wilson (94), Matt Anderson (97), Bryan Bullington (02), Matt Bush (04), and Tim Beckham (08), none of whom made their mark.

Perhaps the best example of the #1 bust potential was catcher Danny Goodwin, selected #1 overall twice, in both 1971 out of high school by the White Sox, and again in 1974 out of college by the California Angels. Goodwin reached the Majors, and played in parts of 7 seasons. But with just a .236 career batting average and 13 career homeruns, he was never a starter.

One week from tomorrow, on Thursday evening, June 5th, the MLB Network will televise the first two rounds of the 2014 MLB First-Year Player Draft. The process was first televised for that 2009 Draft in which Trout was selected, and has grown in popularity among fans ever since. It is an extremely watchable show, presented exceptionally well by the MLB folks.

Among the top prospects this year are high school pitchers Brady Aiken and Tyler Kolek, college pitchers Carlos Rodon, Sean Newcomb, and Aaron Nola, high school shortstop Nick Gordon, college shortstop Trea Turner, high school catcher Alex Jackson, and college outfielder Michael Conforto. There is a high probability that, in some order, these prospects will be among the top 10-12 players selected.

Whomever is picked first overall, history says that the odds are good that they will eventually reach the Big Leagues. They most certainly will get a big payday on signing their first professional contract, which will be for anywhere from $2-7 million dollars. So it will be a happy day full of promise for these players and their families.

However, history also says that the odds of whomever is picked with the #1 overall selection having longterm success at the Major League level are long, and that the odds of their becoming a Hall of Famer are only at about 5% at best. The excitement for the teams and players involved will be just the beginning of a long process that will yield mixed results.

If you are even a marginal fan of our National Pastime, make plans to sit down and enjoy the 2014 MLB First-Year Player Draft with coverage beginning at 6pm next Thursday on the MLB Network with an hour-long preview show, followed by hours of coverage on the network of those first couple of rounds. It will be a night filled with interesting information on the possible stars of tomorrow.

MLB 2014: American League Central

The 2014 MLB predictions continue today with the American League Central Division, home to half of the now 113-year old league's charter franchise clubs.

Founded in the old Western League in 1894, the Detroit Tigers are the oldest continuous one-name, one-city franchise in the American League, and one of those 8 junior circuit charter franchises.

The franchise has won 4 World Series crowns, 11 American League pennants, 3 division titles as a member of the A.L. East division, and now the last 3 consecutive division titles as a member of the A.L. Central.

For the Tigers to add a 4th consecutive division title the team will have to overcome a number of big off-season personnel losses. On the mound, starting pitcher Doug Fister was traded and setup man Joaquin Benoit left via free agency. Infielder Jhonny Peralta also left as a free agent.

But the two biggest losses to overcome will be slugging 1st baseman Prince Fielder and one of the game's top managers, Jim Leyland. Fielder was dealt to Texas, while Leyland finally walked away at age 69 after eight seasons guiding the Tigers.

Still, any team that wants the crown, and there are contenders, will have to go through Motown. Remaining are one of the game's most dominant pitchers, and the envy of many red-blooded American males as swimsuit model Kate Upton's steady date, Justin Verlander, the reigning A.L. Cy Young winner in Max Scherzer, and the best hitter on the planet, 2-time defending A.L. MVP Miguel Cabrera.

Here are my predictions for the American League Central in 2014:

1) Detroit Tigers
Sure, they suffered all of the losses that I described above. But for most of the questions raised by those losses, the team appears to have enough answers to win a 4th straight division title. On the mound, Drew Smyly should be ready to step right into Fister's steady shoes, and Rick Porcello at age 25 now should be ready to take a step forward as well. They follow behind the outstanding trio of Verlander, Scherzer, and Anibal Sanchez. Given health, that group is far and away the best rotation in the division. In the bullpen, Detroit signed Joe Nathan as the new closer, and has a talented bullpen mix with arms such as Al Alburquerque, Phil Coke, Joba Chamberlain, and future closer Bruce Rondon. The infield has a chance to be one of the best in the league. Besides the 2-time MVP in Miggy, the Tigers have veteran Ian Kinsler now at 2nd base. He came from Texas in the Fielder deal, and brings an all-star caliber of play to the middle infield. His doubleplay partner is tremendous defensive shortstop Jose Iglesias. At 3rd base, rookie Nick Castellanos will finally get a chance to show that his minor league production and prospect hype are for real. The regular DH is Victor Martinez, one of the game's elite hitters, and the catcher is the capable Alex Avila. The starting outfield trio of Austin Jackson, Andy Dirks, and consummate pro Torii Hunter is supported by speedy Rajai Davis. And Detroit has a pair of reliable bench players in Don Kelly and Steve Lombardozzi. The Tigers enter the season as the favorites to 4-peat in the A.L. Central. Whether they can win another A.L. pennant, even win their first World Series since 1984, remains to be seen.

2) Kansas City Royals
For me, it's verrry close for the runner-up spot in this division between KC and the Cleveland Indians. I'm going on a bit of a hunch with the Royals, the only franchise in the division that is not one of the original 8 charter members of the American League, feeling that perhaps they are ready to grow into a legitimate playoff contender. A year ago the team registered the first winning record since 1994, and their 86 victories were the most since 1989. The difference with the Tribe, and the main reason that I pick them for 2nd, is an under-rated starting rotation that is supported by a shutdown bullpen. 'Big Game' James Shields gives them a legit Ace at the front, and arms such as Jeremy Guthrie, Jason Vargas, Bruce Chen, Wade Davis, and Luke Hochevar are all talented, with the latter two likely battling for the 5th spot with fireballing youngster Yordano Ventura. The two who don't make the rotation will join a bullpen that includes Greg Holland as the closer, with lefty Tim Collins and righties Kelvin Herrera and Aaron Crow setting up. If healthy, that trio can be as good as any end-game trio in baseball. The everyday lineup finally began to see 1st baseman Eric Hosmer tap some of his vast raw potential in 2013. In the coming season, 3rd baseman Mike Moustakas and catcher Salvador Perez will be counted on to take similar steps forward. They join veteran leaders in DH Billy Butler and leftfielder Alex Gordon. Lorenzo Cain in center and newcomer Norichika Aoki in rightfield add nice speed, and veteran 2nd baseman Omar Infante is a steadying presence for the kids. If players like Moustakas, Perez, and Ventura actually come through as star-caliber, KC could surprise and contend for the division title. But there remain enough questions to think that the wrong answers may dump them back towards the bottom.

3) Cleveland Indians
The Indians finished in 2nd place a year ago, and earned a berth in the A.L. Wildcard playoff game where they were shutout 4-0 by Tampa Bay. The franchise has won 7 American League Central Division titles, the most recent in 2007, and the most by any of the division's 5 teams. But the franchise has won just two World Series crowns in it's 114-year existence, none since 1948, the longest such streak in the league among teams who have won it at least once. They don't appear to have enough pitching to end that World Series drought, but they might have enough to return to the playoffs, even challenge for a division title with the right breaks. The everyday lineup has depth and versatility. 1st baseman Nick Swisher brings energy and leadership on a daily basis. 2nd baseman Jason Kipnis is an all-star caliber player now, and shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera is solid. The outfield will feature speedy Michael Bourn in center, steady newcomer David Murphy in right, and multi-talented leftfielder Michael Brantley. There is depth as well with still-dangerous DH/PH Jason Giambi, infielder Mike Aviles, and IF/OF utility man Ryan Raburn. The most intriguing story line for the Tribe is the move of catcher Carlos Santana to 3rd base, a move they now appear committed to as the season opens. He is also still likely to catch a bit, with Lonnie Chisenhall getting the hot corner when he does. Yan Gomes will catch when Santana is at 3rd base. On the mound, Justin Masterson is more of a #2-type, and is now in his free agent season. Corey Kluber, Zach McAllister, and Carlos Carrasco are back and are all capable starters, though none is dominant. Young Danny Salazar gets his first full shot, and he may bring that dominant, strikeout type stuff to a rotation that could use it. Cleveland signed former Milwaukee closer John Axford to finish games, and his presence allows arms such as Vinnie Pestano, C.C. Lee, and Cody Allen to settle into what should be nice setup/matchup pieces in the bullpen. Shaun Marcum and Josh Tomlin provide the Tribe with swingmen who give the rotation depth and the pen some long arms. If Salazar proves for real, and manager Terry Francona keeps pushing the right buttons, Cleveland should at least be in the Wildcard hunt.

4) Chicago White Sox
It will be a big summer for the Chisox, no matter what happens on the field, as former superstar slugger Frank Thomas is inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame. While the team and city celebrate the career of the man known as "The Big Hurt", they hope that there will not be a repeat of last season's last place divisional finish. Aside from the fact that Minnesota just does not appear talented enough to avoid that cellar, there is room for optimism on the South Side of Chicago. That positivity begins with Cuban import 1st baseman Jose Abreu, who the team hopes can provide some of the type of pop that Thomas once gave their lineup. Another newcomer, centerfielder Adam Eaton, is expected to bring speed and energy to the top of the lineup. Even with those new bats, young outfielders Avisail Garcia and Dayan Viciedo must step up and produce if the club is to rise beyond 4th place. The club would also love to see prospect Matt Davidson, who arrived from Arizona along with Eaton, take the 3rd base job away from Conor Gillaspie. Speedy Alejandro De Aza in the outfield, and steady vet Jeff Keppinger in the infield, provide lineup depth. At the DH spot the club is likely to split veteran sluggers Adam Dunn and Paul Konerko, the latter in a swan song for the Sox former hero. On the mound, young lefty Chris Sale gives the club a true Ace to build upon. Veteran John Danks needs to stay healthy and remain another strong option. Behind them, a pair of youngsters in Jose Quintana and Erik Johnson are likely to take steady rotation turns. Felipe Paulino and Andre Rienzo provide depth to the rotation and pen. If Nate Jones can shoulder the closer role, then arms such as Matt Lindstrom, Ronald Belisario, Mitchell Boggs, and Scott Downs could make the bullpen a strength. The White Sox could use a couple more reliable rotation arms. But if what they have should overachieve, and the kid bats come through, it could be an interesting season for the Pale Hose. Right now, that has to be seen before it can be believed.

5) Minnesota Twins
The Twins are really bad right now. So bad that it's hard to remember that in the last decade they were the division's dominant team. Winning 6 of 10 division titles, and nearly a 7th, the Twins and the "M&M Boys", stars Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, were constant contenders. Despite all those division titles, those teams did not have much playoff success. They will have to wait awhile before even talking about playoffs again. Mauer, a hometown crown jewel player, is moving from his longtime home behind the plate and out to 1st base, where he is likely to spend the remainder of his career. He will never be a prototypical slugger at the position, so will have to keep his batting average and on-base percentage high while proving that he is not a defensive liability at his new position in order for him to not become a problem for the team as it moves forward. The rest of the infield is average at best, with Brian Dozier at 2nd, Pedro Florimon at short, and Trevor Plouffe at 3rd. The catcher will be some combo of veteran Kurt Suzuki and young Josmil Pinto. Reliable vet outfielder Josh Willingham gives them some pop, and Oswaldo Arcia is a coming young run-producer. The rest of their production and depth will come from a questionable mix of Alex Presley, Chris Herrmann, and Eduardo Escobar. It's not much better on the mound. The rotation has some experience with Kevin Correia, Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes, Mike Pelfrey, Samuel Deduno, Scott Diamond, and Brian Duensing all in the mix. But none are close to being a true Ace. Closer Glen Perkins is solid, and might be trade bait in the end. The arms that don't make the rotation will join Anthony Swarzak and Jared Burton to fill out the pen. The Twins do have a pair of elite prospects, two of the best in baseball in Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano. But Sano suffered an injury that likely leaves him out until 2015, and backs his arrival up until at least mid-season next year. It may be 2016 before those two arrive and help begin to truly turn things around in the Twin Cities.

The Tigers were somewhat weakened in the off-season, and should their pair of superstars in Verlander and Cabrera have any injuries or production slippage, either or both of the Royals or Indians could put it all together and beat them out. But for now, Detroit still looks like the best team in the division, and they also look to be the team with the most answers should troubles strike. New manager and former catcher Brad Ausmus should be able to pick up where Leyland left off, winning a 4th straight division title. And they have enough talent that, with health and everyone producing to their capabilities, they could return to the World Series, where they lost in both 2006 and 2012.

MLB 2011: American League

I wonder how Philadelphia Phillies fans would feel about Terry Francona (above) managing his club to a World Series title for the 3rd time? Especially if this time those Boston Red Sox defeat the Fightin' Phils for the world championship, as I am predicting is going to happen in late October of 2011.

The American League's East Division is where you can find the greatest blood feud in baseball history, that between the Bosox and their hated southern neighbors, the dynastic New York Yankees. Both clubs have had recent success, with the Red Sox winning the World Series in 2004 and 2007, and the Yanks winning it all in 2009. For this coming season, I am picking the two clubs to battle for the A.L. East crown, and for Boston to come out on top.

The Red Sox struggled through an injury-marred 2010 and missed the post-season. But over this past winter the club was reinforced with a pair of game-changing offensive talents in 1st baseman Adrian Gonzalez and left fielder Carl Crawford. AGonz will bang the ball all over Fenway Park, and Crawford's speed paired with that of Jacoby Ellsbury will give the Bosox' game something new with which to challenge opponents. Add in 2nd baseman Dustin Pedroia, 3rd sacker Kevin Youkilis, and veteran right fielder J.D. Drew and Boston has some of the best offensive talent in the game. On the mound the Sox are deep and talented in both their rotation and in the bullpen, with a tremendous mix of veterans such as Josh Beckett and Jonathan Papelbon and kids such as Jon Lester and Daniel Bard. This is, given reasonable health, clearly the team to beat.

The Yankees lineup is aging in spots, particularly on the left side of the infield where future Hall of Famers Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez perform. But both of these players will be back and should perform well in the coming season, and Jeter should become the first Yankee in history to reach the 3,000 career hits milestone. With Mark Teixeira and Robinson Cano, this may be the best all-around infield in baseball. The Yanks appear to be a little short on outfield pop, and their starting pitching has serious depth problems.

MLB 2010: American League

If there is one consistent in almost every single prognostication for the American League in the coming 2010 season it will be that the Yankees and Red Sox will finish 1-2 in some order in the AL East.

Almost every one, because you won't find that pick here. For the 2nd straight year my pick is for the Rays to win the East, and to advance back into the World Series for the 2nd time in 3 seasons.

In that AL East division race, Tampa will be able to matchup with the 'big boys' in New York and Boston with talented young pitching that I believe is primed to take a big step forward, a deep bullpen, and some exciting young hitters throughout the lineup.

Leading that rotation is underrated ace James Shields, just entering his prime at 28 years old and the senior member. Following him in order will be Matt Garza, Jeff Niemann, David Price and Wade Davis.

The Rays now have a legitimate closer in Rafael Soriano, and a quality setup man in Dan Wheeler. But they will be challenged at least early as lefty J.P. Howell battles injury.

The offense will feature 3rd baseman Evan Longoria and outfielder Carl Crawford, two of the best, most exciting all-around players in baseball. They will be supplemented by outfielder B.J. Upton, 1st baseman Carlos Pena, 2nd baseman Ben Zobrist, and shortstop Jason Bartlett.

I am picking that Yankees-Red Sox race as a dead-even battle right behind Tampa, with the 2nd place team here in the AL East becoming the Wild Card playoff club.