Carlos Santana: bad signing by the Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies agreed to terms with veteran free agent first baseman Carlos Santana this past week.

Per a report from Phillies insider Jim Salisbury on December 15, the formal signing will take place pending the results of a physical exam.

This was a wholly unnecessary signing, and I believe that in the end it will prove to have been a waste of $60 million dollars.

The Phillies are mostly a young team. They are finishing up a rebuilding program that has seen major changes within the organization over the last few years. Now the club is trying to find a few more talented veteran pieces that will help their young nucleus move forward in the standings.

Santana (Twitter: @TheRealSlamtana) would appear to fit the bill in a handful of ways. He will turn 32 years old by the first week of April. He has seven full years of big league experience. Santana certainly fits the "veteran" bill.

He also fits in a couple of other ways. The Phillies could use a bit more power and patience in their batting order. Santana has averaged 24 home runs over those seven full seasons, which were all spent with the Cleveland Indians in the American League. His career .365 on-base percentage demonstrates plate discipline that is generally lacking with the Phillies lineup.

Defensively, while Santana will never be an NL Gold Glove Award winner, he does field the position well. His 6.7 rating on the SABR Defensive Index led the American League, and ranked fifth among all MLB first basemen.

Bleacher Report ranked Santana at #12 in their Top 25 First Basemen of 2017 list. Their Zachary Rymer stated the following:

 "Swing-wise, Santana was once again one of the most extreme pull hitters in MLB. This made him vulnerable against shifts, but his pickiness allowed for consistent contact and his strength and solid loft allowed for relatively easy power."

Santana is a veteran who hits home runs, gets on base, and fields his position well. So what's not to like?

First would be his age, and the contract. As previously stated, Santana turns 32 years old at the start of the season. The Phillies have reportedly offered him a three-year, $60 million deal with a team option for a fourth year. The contract commits the team to him at least through his age 34 season, and makes him one of the top 50 highest paid players in baseball history based on average annual value.

That 24 homers per year? It's just an average, one that is propped up by a 34 homer campaign in 2016. He has never otherwise approached that number. He also has a pair of 27 homer seasons upping that average. Those two seasons came four and seven years ago, respectively.

Santana is not an elite middle-of-the-order offensive performer, but he will be paid like one. He has just a career .249 batting average, and has failed to reach the .260 mark in six of those seven full seasons. He has averaged just 80 RBI per full season. That's not bad at all, but nothing special for a 3-4-5 hitter in your lineup.

From what I have seen in my 47 years following Phillies baseball, Carlos Santana does not appear to be the kind of player who is going to sell tickets and merchandise. There will not be a boatload of Santana shirseys and jerseys flying off the Majestic Clubhouse store shelves. This is not another Jim Thome signing. Not even close.

The Phillies are paying $20 million per year for the next three years (at least) for a guy who has received MVP votes just once. A realistic best-case season for Santana would be a .250 batting average with 20-25 homers and 80 RBI.

White Sox Potential Winter Meetings Deals

The Chicago White Sox are almost certain to be among the most popular and influential players as the 2016 MLB Winter Meetings unfold in National Harbor, Maryland.

The White Sox went an extremely disappointing 78-84 this past season. That resulted in a fourth place finish in the AL Central Division.

It was a fourth consecutive losing season on the South Side of Chicago. This followed a long run of contention that had spanned the better part of two decades.

Now the White Sox also have to contend for the hearts and attention of fans in a two-team city. The other franchise is, or course, the young and exciting new World Series champion Chicago Cubs.

The White Sox were legitimate division crown contenders in the majority of seasons between 1990 and 2012. They won the AL Central five times in that span, and were the 2005 World Series champions.

In the eyes of most industry talent evaluators, the Chisox minor league talent is among the bottom five in the game. So there is not much help coming from within the organization.

Four of the last five AL pennant winners have come from the division. This includes the defending champion Cleveland Indians. But the AL Central could become very competitive in the next few years.

It is the job of general manager Rich Hahn and VP Ken Williams to make sure that Chicago gets back to that regular contending status. To that end, they are going to have to start replenishing the young talent in the organization.

2016 Baseball Winter Meetings Preview

Major League Baseball will conduct the annual MLB Winter Meetings just outside of Washington, D.C. this year. 

The formal location is National Harbor, Maryland, a waterfront development along the Potomac River.

The headquarters for this year’s meetings, which run from December 4-8, will be the Gaylord National Resort & Convention Center.

There the folks from MLB Network will set up a broadcasting hub to bring all of the action to fans everywhere. 

Interviews with baseball executives, managers, general managers, player agents and others will highlight much of the activity.

The Winter Meetings have historically been a time and place for many of baseball’s biggest offseason deals to get done. 

In the years before the development of instantaneous communication such as the internet, these face-to-face meetings were the place that GMs would negotiate and consummate numerous trades.

Goodbye, JRoll

Jimmy Rollins reportedly dealt to the LA Dodgers

Goodbye Jimmy Rollins. The Phillies have reportedly traded their shorstop and team leader. I’m not surprised at all. And yet it’s still a bit of a shock.

Just yesterday at around 4:20pm, I published an article here at TBOH titled “Utley and Rollins Going Nowhere“, flat-out stating that I didn’t believe that either Jimmy Rollins or Chase Utley would be traded, at least right now.

I was wrong. Rather, I read the consistently mixed messages coming from the Phillies wrong. 

I had actually based my statement on one made by Ruben Amaro. The Phillies GM had stated that neither player was willing to waive their 10-and-5 rights, calling it a “challenge” when talking trade with other teams.

Amaro had gone into even more detail

Winter Meetings Heat Up the Windy City

Samardzija, Robertson on South Side, Maddon on North Side

Late last night, free agent lefty Jon Lester announced that he had chosen the Chicago Cubs over his old team, the Boston Red Sox.

With the Lester signing, it became official that not only are the Cubs fully invested in contending sooner rather than later, but that competitive baseball is returning to the Windy City.

Lester is the biggest, but not the only, major Chicago development this off-season, or here in San Diego at the 2014 Winter Meetings. The Cubs have also added a new manager in the respected Joe Maddon, and at these Meetings have signed another pitcher, Jason Hammel, and dealt for a new catcher, Miguel Montero.

But it's not even just the Cubs who are bringing excitement back to the Chicago baseball scene. On the city's South Side, the White Sox have made their own splash.

Free agent ace Jon Lester chose the Cubbies over Red Sox

At the Winter Meetings, the Chisox have dealt for starting pitcher Jeff Samardzija, one of the top #2-type rotation arms in the game. Then they signed the top closer available, David Robertson. Earlier in the off-season they added veteran 1st baseman Adam LaRoche and lefty Zach Duke.

All of this activity is showing that both Windy City franchise's want to return to winning as soon as possible. Each finished with identical 73-89 records in 2014, leaving the Chisox in 4th place in the AL Central and the Cubbies in 5th place in the NL Central.

For now, the Cubs appear to be leaping ahead of the White Sox in overall talent. They have one of the top prospect groups in the game, with a number of youngsters either already in the majors, or poised to make it in the next year or so.

With Maddon at the helm, and with an involved leadership group, the days of losing look to be coming to an end on the North Side. Meanwhile, the South Siders are not sitting back and yielding the town to the Cubs. Watch for even more White Sox moves in the coming weeks.

10 Contenders at the Winter Meetings

Aces Scherzer, Lester, Shields hold key to the FA market

As the Winter Meetings got underway yesterday, all of MLB's major contenders are looking to shore up weaknesses on their rosters.

A number of those contenders have a hole, or at least a weakness, at the hot corner. This should make the only real free agent 3rd baseman of any note, Chase Headley, a very popular and ultimately wealthy man.

There are a number of teams who either were on the borderline, or who actually lost, in 2014 who could jump right up into contention with the right moves. However, most of them need multiple moves still to get there.

The Chicago White Sox have decided that they want to be one of those bounce-back clubs. The Chisox first executed a deal to bring in a strong #2 starting pitcher, Jeff Samardzija, to pair with ace Chris Sale. Then the club signed the top closer on the market, David Robertson.

Much of the rest of the market, both free agent and major trade, is waiting on the decisions of the top three starting pitchers. Once Jon Lester, Max Scherzer, and James Shields make their decisions, it should open the floodgates for the 2nd tier guys, as well as get trade talks heating up for available frontline types like Cole Hamels.

Here's a look at 10 teams who clearly enter 2015 as contenders right now, 5 in each league, and their more obvious needs, along with some potential fixes that could happen at the Winter Meetings or shortly thereafter.

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Washington Nationals
Team clearly needs an infielder, just where is the question? Anthony Rendon was exceptional at both 2nd and 3rd base. With Ryan Zimmerman now locked in at 1st base, they need to find someone to play one or the other, and find a permanent home for Rendon. Resigning Asdrubal Cabrera is the most logical move. But wouldn't Chase Headley look great in a Nats uniform?

Los Angeles Dodgers
Do they really believe they have any semblance of a competitive left-side infield? Do they really believe they have a front-line catcher? I don't, on either count. There has been a lot of talk about Cole Hamels in the media, and great starting pitching can cover a lot of sins. They have an outfield glut to trade from, with Matt Kemp the most likely to go. That still would leave Puig, Ethier, and Crawford with young Joc Pederson ready to play every day. If I'm LA, I'm looking to fill that left-side infield. How about Jimmy Rollins, maybe in a Hamels package? If not, you have the lesser but younger Stephen Drew, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Jed Lowrie troika available.

Saint Louis Cardinals
This looks like a serious NL Pennant contender to me, but for one thing: I'm really concerned about the ability of the rotation to physically hold up. Something tells me they'll stand pat. But if I were them, I'd reach out and sign one of the free agent SP arms. A proven reliability guy like James Shields would seem to be a perfect Cardinal fit, from where I sit.

San Francisco Giants
The defending World Series champs would love to take a run at ending their every-other-year streak, rather than fall back in 2015. They are finalists in the Jon Lester sweepstakes, which should be announced some time today or tonight. That pursuit aside, they have a gaping hole at 3rd base with the Panda gone. This should be yet another team looking hard at Chase Headley.

Chase Headley might be the perfect Panda replacement

Pittsburgh Pirates
A very interesting team that has been very quiet so far this off-season. Two straight Wildcard appearances for the Bucs have them hungry for more. How hungry? Are they willing and able to spend money? Because if they want to take a next step, maybe even get back at all, they need another starting pitcher, even after bringing A.J. Burnett back, and could use a shortstop upgrade. The shortstop is available on the market in Stephen Drew, Jed Lowrie, or Asdrubal Cabrera. So are the arms, with possibly affordable options like Jake Peavy, Ryan Vogelsong, Justin Masterson and Brandon McCarthy. This is a place that James Shields or Ervin Santana would work well. They could always resign Francisco Liriano. Even a lesser guy like Kyle Kendrick could provide valuable, experienced innings. They need something more, for sure.

Baltimore Orioles
Buck Showalter is good, and in 2014 he was great. But he's not good enough to make this team win again without addressing the losses of Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis. Let's say all three of Chris Davis, Matt Wieters, and Manny Machado returns healthy and has a strong season. That's asking a lot, but with Adam Jones and J.J. Hardy as well, it's the minimum needed. How about Michael Morse as a LF/DH in Camden Yards? Seems like a match made in O's heaven to me. This might be a good fit for a veteran who wants to win and can bring some speed, such as Emilio Bonifacio.

Detroit Tigers
Having VMart back and a fully healthy Miguel Cabrera will be huge. But this team needs another run-producer. They could really use it from a corner IF/OF type, even if J.D. Martinez is for real and Nick Castellanos takes a step forward. Melky Cabrera and Alex Rios might be nice fits in Motown. And since this team is in win-now mode, a one-year shot on a 5th outfielder season from Ichiro Suzuki could be a nice Torii Hunter substitute.

Kansas City Royals
A lot came together all at once for the Royals last season. Now Hosmer and Moustakas have to prove they can do it over a full season. There has been talk of breaking up the shutdown Herrera-Davis-Holland back end bullpen trio. Especially with the loss of starter James Shields, that sounds like crazy talk to me. This team needs to find a similar starting pitcher, and all the names mentioned for the Pirates come to mind, especially Jake Peavy. He's a winner and a staff leader-type. And how about a Colby Rasmus in CF, allowing Lorenzo Cain to possibly become an All-Star rightfielder playing every day there?

Jake Peavy could fit well as a James Shields replacement in KC

LA Angels of Anaheim
Los Angeles, Anaheim, whatever they are, is a very good team. But like a few other very good teams, they have big questions in the rotation, especially if they actually do move C.J. Wilson. A lefty DH/IF/PH bat with experience and pop would be a nice addition. Someone like Kendrys Morales fits the bill perfectly. Emilio Bonifacio checks off a few boxes as well as a versatile switch-hitter. And bottom-feeding one of the lesser expense but reliable SP options would be a good idea, someone in the Kyle Kendrick or Ryan Vogelsong price range.

Toronto Blue Jays
This team has to be taken seriously now. Picking up one of the top players in the game at a position of growing scarcity in 3rd baseman Josh Donaldson, as well as a proven, veteran leader at catcher in Russ Martin, will do that for you. They join a lineup that already included Jose Bautista, Jose Reyes, Edwin Encarnacion. Do you entrust this obvious run at the postseason to the current group of 2nd basemen? How about Stephen Drew to play there, and give you an option should Reyes' legs act up again? And this team looks like a perfect landing spot for a proven closer like Rafael Soriano, if he can be had at the right price. Asdrubal Cabrera could provide excellent versatility, and Emilio Bonifacio could fit here for all these same reasons.

Phillies 2014 Winter Meetings Preview

Baseball's annual Winter Meetings take place this week

As baseball’s Winter Meetings get underway this week in San Diego, the conferences, trade shows, and banquets will be a sideshow for the main event. That main event will be taking place in meetings behind closed doors, and in numerous phone conversations.

Player movement is what the average fan cares about, and Phillies fans are no exception. GM Ruben Amaro met with the Phillies front office staff last week in preparation for what could be a huge week in the team’s history. Or what could be a big nothing bust.

Amaro was asked to speculate on a possible trade of Cole Hamels. His response was telling, not just for Hamels, around whom trade rumors and speculation have swirled for weeks, but for any possible moves by the club. 

I REALLY CAN’T SPECULATE. I DON’T BELIEVE IN SPECULATION. I BELIEVE IN REALITY

As reported by Ryan Lawrence at Philly.com, Amaro stated: “I really can’t speculate. I don’t believe in speculation. I believe in reality.”

Actually, I have to say that this is one of the few statements made in recent months by the GM with which I am in complete agreement. I’ve never been big on wild speculation, and am more interested in reporting on and evaluating factual information and real events.

But with the Philadelphia Phillies these days, all we have is speculation. There is a publicly stated goal of getting younger, shedding salary, and moving on from the great 2003-12 decade of excellence.

This week, Amaro will continue to talk with rival GM’s, hoping to get back at least a couple of strong, young prospects in exchange for proven veterans, hoping to take the first steps forward in that rebuilding program. 

Here is a look at a handful of the names on the Phillies trade block that are most likely to get moved this week:

MARLON BYRD: there has reportedly been a lot of interest in the Phillies 37-year old outfielder. He is signed for a relatively inexpensive $8 million next year, and a 2016 option at another $8 million vests if he reaches just 463 plate appearances. Healthy the last two years, he has set career highs with 24 and then 25 homeruns.

JONATHAN PAPELBON: there is interest, but the Phils would likely need to eat an unknown portion of his contract. That deal is for $13 million next season, still expensive for a closer, even in the current market. And there is an option for another $13 million which vests if he reaches just 48 Games Finished, a mark he has surpassed in all of his full seasons.

LH reliever Antonio Bastardo is very marketable

ANTONIO BASTARDO: he may be the single most marketable player the Phillies control. Just offered arbitration, it is likely that the 29-year old lefty reliever will make between $2.5-3 million next season. He is in the prime of his career, is healthy, is left-handed, and he strikes hitters out. 

COLE HAMELS: any deal for Hamels will be complicated. He is a true Ace, a lefty, in his prime, and signed longterm at market value for his talent and experience level. You will need just the right combo of a team in contention, money to spend, and with multiple big prospects to give up. There are teams fitting the bill perfectly: Dodgers, Red Sox, Cubs. All of them have been in rumors. More possible, such as the Cardinals, Angels and Giants. There is no rush, and if the exact right offer doesn’t come along, Hamels would become a big target again in the 2015 season at the trade deadline. The decision of free agents like Jon Lester, Max Scherzer, and James Shields may directly impact a Hamels deal.

JIMMY ROLLINS: don’t be surprised if a couple of teams jump up on the Phils all-time Hits leader. The shortstop has been a franchise icon for more than a decade. He can still play shortstop at a high level, and he still produces at the plate. But having just turned 36, the only way he waives his no-trade clause is for a perceived winner. The Dodgers and Yankees might fit the bill. He has already reportedly turned down a possible deal to the Mets, signaling he wants to win in 2015 if he leaves.

BEN REVERE: the Phils really don’t want to deal him. Revere is just 26 and goes to arbitration for the first time. He should be affordable, and a late-season ankle injury is reportedly healed. He hit .306 last year with 49 steals. And he is a really nice guy, the type fans will grown to love. All of which just makes him more marketable too.

THE FIELD: the team is on record as saying that anyone is gettable, but that is not likely true. Young players like Ken Giles and Maikel Franco are part of the future and going nowhere. The team would indeed trade Ryan Howard, Cliff Lee, Chase Utley, Carlos Ruiz and Domonic Brown. But age or price or injury or production concerns make any deals involving these players unlikely. But you never know what another team might like, and Amaro will listen to anything. 

IT’S BEEN A VERY, VERY ACTIVE COMMUNICATION MARKET SO FAR

Amaro gave this nugget to reporters over the weekend “I’m actually probably optimistic about what’s been going on, dialogue-wise, some of the things we’ve discussed externally and internally. It’s been a very, very active communication market so far…there’s been a lot of dialogue in a variety of areas.”

That is saying a very little in a whole lot of words, and I think that’s just how Amaro likes it. The Phillies will be quiet until they aren’t. Until then, a great deal of speculation will swirl around the club during these Winter Meetings. That’s all it will be, even from the “insiders” crowd.

Baseball's Stove Heating Up

For baseball fans the winter can be particularly cold, dark, and long. From the end of the final game of the World Series until Spring Training gets going, there are four months without the game that we must endure. For the most hard core of us, the game never really goes away fully, and this week will find our National Pastime once again in the headlines. This is the week that Major League Baseball holds its 'Winter Meetings' at the Bellagio Hotel & Casino in Las Vegas, Nevada. Front-office executives from each of the MLB teams will be present, along with players, their agents, vendors, job-seekers, fans, and media. There will be numerous presentations, meetings, discussions, and social engagements. The biggest function of the Winter Meetings is always the full opening of the 'Hot Stove League', the name coined for the frenzied discussion of player movement via trades and free agent signings. Since the end of the World Series, which this year has made the off-season much more endurable for we Phillies fans thanks to the still-warm glow of our world championship, players and teams have been prepping for this week. The Phils have a pair of key free agent players, outfielder Pat Burrell and starting pitcher Jamie Moyer. The prevailing wisdom is that Burrell's decade-long career with the Fightin's has come to an end, and that the club will not make a big effort to re-sign the slugging left fielder, at least not unless it becomes a last-choice type scenario. Burrell turned 32 years old during the playoffs in October, and is viewed as a player severely limited defensively, a situation that will only worsen as he moves through his 30's. He will be seeking a multi-year contract for a lot of money, and the Phils just don't see him as a prudent investment. They may be right, depending on his actual price, but it will still be sad to see the Series hero leave town. Moyer is another story. The club wants him back for next season, but again age and cost are two considerations. Moyer turned 46 years old just a few weeks ago, and it is very possible that the Phillies squeezed one final productive turn from the seasoned lefty this past year. There are some huge names available as free agents this year including starting pitchers C.C. Sabathia (pictured), Derek Lowe, A.J. Burnett, and a number of intriguing names such as Brad Penny, Ben Sheets, Oliver Perez, Jon Garland, and future Hall of Famers Pedro Martinez, John Smoltz, and Tom Glavine. At the back of the bullpen, closers Francisco 'KRod' Rodriguez broke the single-season Saves record this year just in time to hit the free agent market. He leads a group of closers that includes all-time Save leader Trevor Hoffman, Brian Fuentes, Kerry Wood, and Brandon Lyon. Need a hitter? MLB clubs have many here to choose from as well. The two biggest prizes are 1st baseman Mark Teixeira and outfielder Manny Ramirez. Tex is just entering his prime, and is one of the top hitters in the game as well as perhaps the best defensive 1st sacker around. Ramirez is older, but proved last season that he is in great shape and still capable of carrying a team for months at a time. The Phillies found out all about that in the NLCS, when it often seemed like it was their team against Manny alone. The other bats include Burrell, 3rd baseman Casey Blake, shortstop Rafael Furcal, and two of the game's most underrated players in 2nd baseman Orlando Hudson and outfielder Raul Ibanez. The Phillies reportedly have interest in Ibanez, and have also reportedly put a formal offer on the table for Lowe. Whether they will make any deals is questionable. There is much talk that the local nine will be satisfied perhaps with going after a complimentary bat to add outfield depth, and instead will concentrate on signing both Jayson Werth and Ryan Madson to long term deals. They also are rumored to be shopping for one more strong arm to add to what is already one of baseball's best bullpens. Baseball's 'super-agent', Scott Boras, will be highly visible as he and his group represent a number of the top free agents. The dominoes are likely to begin falling with the signing of Sabathia. As soon as this highest rated hurler signs, watch the other deals, both free agent signings and trades, begin to come fast and furious. Of course we could leave the Winter Meetings with just a few signings and deals, but the groundwork will have been laid for others that will come within a week or two, definitely before Christmas. So the next week or so is an important time for baseball teams to improve their rosters. You can catch all of the important Winter Meetings news on ESPN's outstanding program 'Baseball Tonight', which will air special editions from Monday through Thursday at 5pm. The 'Hot Stove' is heating up, warming all baseball fans just as winter's cold begins to set in across the nation.