As 2019 countdown reaches eight, Phillies remain in postseason hunt

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Phillies need Bryce Harper to play like a superstar to reach playoffs

Our weekly countdown towards the end of the 2019 Major League Baseball regular season now reaches ‘8’ – just eight more weeks left for the Philadelphia Phillies as they attempt to return to the postseason for the first time in eight years.

The Phillies are coming off another disheartening weekend, one in which the club dropped two of three to the lowly Chicago White Sox, owners of the seventh-worst record in MLB even after winning the series.

Still, the Fightin’ Phils remain tied with the division-rival Washington Nationals for the second National League Wildcard playoff berth at the moment. Those two have just one more loss than the Saint Louis Cardinals, who currently control the top Wildcard spot. Two are available.

Three more teams are right behind the Phillies and Nationals, all in the race still. But the real threat may be coming from a team that was way back just a few weeks ago.

Another NL East rival, the New York Mets, have won 15 of their last 20 games to move within a game of the .500 mark and within three games in the Wildcard race. Having obtained Marcus Stroman at the MLB trade deadline, the Mets may have the best starting pitching among all the teams still in the hunt.

This current winning streak from New York makes them one of three teams from the division to get hot over a lengthy stretch. The Braves won 28 of 38 between June 1 and July 15 to take over the division lead. After a horrendous start, the Nats went 36-15 pver two full months from May 24 to July 24.

Streaking Nationals come to Citizens Bank Park on a roll

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Red-hot Juan Soto leads the streaking Nats into South Philly

The Philadelphia Phillies (47-43) and Washington Nationals (47-42) return to play following four days off for the 2019 MLB All-Star Game break with a Friday night contest at Citizens Bank Park.

These two NL East Division rivals currently control the two National League Wildcard playoff positions in the league standings. However, for nearly two months they have been travelling in opposite directions.

On May 29, the Phillies were 33-22 and held a 3.5 game lead over the Atlanta Braves in the NL East standings. That same day, the Nats were 24-32 and 9.5 games behind the Phillies.

But since May 24, Washington has forged a 28-11 mark. That is the best record in all of Major League Baseball since that date.

Meanwhile, the Phillies have slumped to a 14-21 record since their May 20 high-water at 11 games over the .500 mark. That is the same record in that time frame as the last place Miami Marlins have fashioned. Only the 13-22 record of the New York Mets over that period has been worse in the division.

All of that – the Phillies hot start, the Nationals recent hot stretch – is now in the rear view mirror. The ultimate story of the 2019 season for these two division rivals is going to be written over the next two and a half months. If the Phillies want to begin to turn their season back around, it has to begin this weekend.

For more than three weeks, the Phillies have faced nothing but NL East Division rivals on the schedule. The club has gone just 9-13 in those games. That stretch ends with this three-game weekend tilt with the Nationals.

The Phillies are going to come out of the stretch with a losing record. But winning this series would still mark a big step forward. It would also move them past the Nationals in the standings heading into a very tough four-game series to open next week with the visiting Los Angeles Dodgers.

Both teams have a middle-of-the-road offensive attack. The Nationals rank 14th in all of baseball with their average of 4.94 runs scored per game. The Phillies are right behind, their 4.91 runs per game ranking 15th among the 30 MLB ball clubs.

There is a big difference on the mound. Washington’s pitching staff ranks 5th in the National League with a .247 batting average against, and their .720 OPS against is 3rd in the league. Their pitchers collectively rank 4th in MLB in strikeouts.

As MLB All-Star break arrives, Braves in charge, Nats hot, Phils not in NL East race

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The Braves have taken charge of the NL East at the All-Star break

The Philadelphia Phillies (47-43) have arrived at the MLB All-Star break in third place in the National League East Division standings. They trail the Atlanta Braves by 6.5 games and are a half-game behind the Washington Nationals, but still control the second NL Wildcard playoff berth.

The Phillies captured a weekend series over the New York Mets at Citi Field by winning two of the three games, capped off by a rousing 8-3 victory in Sunday’s series finale. That followed on the heels of a series defeat after they dropped two of three to the first-place Atlanta Braves to open last week.

Now nearly three and a half months into the six-month long MLB regular season, the Phillies appear to be approaching a cross-roads. They led the division for all but seven days up until June 12, then were passed for second place by the Nats just this past week.

While the club has struggled to produce runs on a consistent basis over the traditional first-half of the season, their real problem has been on the mound. Phillies pitchers rank at or near the bottom of most important statistical categories. While the bullpen appears to finally be getting healthy, the starting rotation has become a complete mess.

The ability of general manager Matt Klentak to find a pair of more stable, veteran, productive starting pitchers prior to the trade deadline at the end of this month will likely prove pivotal to any hope of reaching the postseason.

If Klentak is unable to procure those new starters, even a bit of improvement from the offense is unlikely to keep them in contention through the dog days of August and the crucible of a September stretch run.

MLB 2019 Power Rankings: Astros, Dodgers remain at the top of each league as July opens

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Texas Rangers have been a surprise AL contender in 2019

This is a Philadelphia Phillies site, and so the team’s place on my MLB Power Rankings always needs to be highlighted. When I debuted the 2019 rankings on June 1, there were fans upset that the first-place club was in the #15 slot.

By the June 15 rankings, the Phillies had moved up a spot to #14, although by then the team had dropped to second place. Still, I heard complaints from fans who believed the club should be ranked higher.

Maybe now they can admit that the rankings were on to something? The Phillies have now slipped to the #18 spot. They have the 12th-best record in MLB overall, and are buoyed by their defense, tied for 8th in the game. But their hitting attack has been mediocre (15th) and they are seriously weighted down by a pitching staff rated just 25th in baseball.

Fans are allowed to be unrealistic about their team based on pure emotion. My own personal feelings have nothing to do with the MLB Power Rankings published here at Phillies Nation. Instead, it’s all about each team’s actual results and statistical performances.

There is never any subjectivity on my part. I take key statistics and rank each of the 30 teams in Major League baseball on their ability to actually win ball games as well as their performance on offense, on the pitching mound, and in the field.

The MLB Power Rankings will be updated here at Phillies Nation on the 1st and 15th of the month for the remainder of the regular season using the following methodology.

RANKINGS METHODOLOGY

Introduced and then upgraded during the course of last season, my formula for compiling the rankings received another tweak to begin this year. By the end of 2018, I was researching each of the 30 MLB teams current position in the four categories of winning percentage, runs scored, pitching OPS, and fielding percentage.

This year, runs-per-game has replaced that simple “runs scored” category in order to get the offensive component. I then assign each of those component category team rankings a 1-30 value and simply add those values up to determine an overall final ratings score. Where there was a tie, it is broken by win-loss percentage, then by runs-per-game, followed by pitching OPS.

2019 JULY 1 –  MLB RANKINGS

The Houston Astros repeat at the top of the Power Rankings. But the top four teams remain the same, just with a slight juggling of the order.

The hot risers are the Washington Nationals, who have shot up 11 places since June 1. In the American League, the Texas Rangers are up again, this time from 11 to 8 after going from 16 to 11 in the June 15 rankings. And the Oakland A’s burst up from 12 to 5 this time around.

June bug Nats beginning to prove major pests in NL East

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Anthony Rendon has led a Nationals charge back into the race

The Philadelphia Phillies begin the month of July in a far different position than they started out the month of June.

When the calendar made the flip from May to June, the Phillies were on top of the National League East Division standings. Their 33-24 record had the club three full games ahead of the Atlanta Braves to that point.

The month of June was not kind to the Phillies, as the club stumbled to an 11-16 mark. Now, the Phillies begin July in second place, staring up at the Braves through a five-game deficit in the loss column.

The Phillies went 5-2 over this past week, though it was a bit of a mixed bag of results. It began with an uplifting four-game sweep of the New York Mets at Citizens Bank Park. But this past weekend saw the Marlins capture two of three in Miami to take some wind out of the Phillies sails.

This week’s upcoming games will lead into a four-day break for the MLB All-Star Game.

As always, my NL East Beat report reveals how each of the Phillies divisional rivals fared over the course of the past week with a presentation of the standings, last week’s results, and the upcoming schedules for each club.

NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST DIVISION STANDINGS

EAST DIVISION

East Division

Team	W	L	W-L%	GB
Atlanta Braves	50	35	.588	--
Philadelphia Phillies	44	40	.524	5.5
Washington Nationals	42	41	.506	7.0
New York Mets	38	47	.447	12.0
Miami Marlins	32	50	.390	16.5

Data courtesy Baseball-Reference.com.

ATLANTA BRAVES (4 – 3)

Summary: Atlanta split a four-game set at Wrigley Field with the NL Central-leading Chicago Cubs, then moved on to Citi Field where they took two of three from the struggling New York Mets.

While the Phillies were stumbling through their losing June, the Braves went 20-8 to put themselves firmly in control. Now this young and talented ball club will to capture a second straight NL East crown.

Nationals look to deliver a knockout blow to staggering Phillies in series finale

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Nationals fans have welcomed Bryce Harper back with open arms

The Philadelphia Phillies (39-34) are looking a bit like a boxer who has built a nice lead on the judge’s scorecards, winning the first handful of rounds, only to get nailed with a haymaker by the opposition and suddenly find themselves reeling, clinging to the ropes, hoping the knockout blow doesn’t come before they can somehow regain their composure, get back to their corner, and formulate some kind of plan to rally.

The Washington Nationals (35-38) on the other hand look like that opposition fighter. Was getting knocked around in the early rounds, looked entirely lost. But then, suddenly, that fighter lands a big shot, sees the stunned look in the former leader’s eyes, and goes in for the kill with renewed energy.

It will be the host Nationals going for the series sweep on Thursday evening when the two sides meet once again at Nationals Park. They swept the Phillies in a day-night doubleheader on Wednesday, pulling the Nats within four games of the Phils and Colorado Rockies in the race for the final NL Wildcard slot.

Since falling to a season-worst 19-31 on May 23, the Nationals have gone 16-7 to get back into the race. Meanwhile, the Phillies were sitting at a season-best 33-22 on May 29, but have gone just 6-12 since that point. They have not only fallen out of first place in the NL East, trailing the Atlanta Braves by four games, but have also lost sole possession of a Wildcard playoff berth.

In the midst of a month-long stretch of games against only National League East Division games, the Phillies are 1-4 thus far. There are 20 of those division rivalry games remaining in this stretch of the season.

Weather has been a major factor in this series. Persistent thunderstorms and showers caused the postponement of games on both Monday and Tuesday night, resulting in yesterday’s split twin-bill and a game rescheduled for late September. Tonight looks okay. While there is a 45% chance of scattered t-storms at the 7:05 pm first pitch, that drops to just 20-25% for the rest of the game.

Following the game tonight, the club will return home to Citizens Bank Park. Tomorrow night they fete former hero Chase Utley as ‘The Man’ officially retires as a member of the Phillies prior to a weekend series opener with the last-place Miami Marlins. Going home with a win tonight could make for much improved feelings when the fans pack the ball park to honor their former hero.

For Nationals it's win now, or possibly lose two superstars

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The Nats already lost Harper, could Rendon be next star to go?

The Washington Nationals, who play host to the Phillies in a four-game series this week, have spent the better part of the last seven seasons dominating the National League East Division standings.

In 2012, the Nationals ended the Phillies five-year grip on the division by capturing the franchise’ first-ever NL East crown. Their direct predecessors, the Montreal Expos, were considered to have finished in first place back in 1994, but that was the strike-ended season that was never completed.

From 2012-18, the Nationals registered a winning season each year. They captured division titles four times in that span: 2012, 2014, and 2016-17. In each of the other three years, the Nats finished in second place.

The club was always in the hunt for a playoff berth until suddenly falling into a deep funk from June 10 through September 6. They struggled all summer at 32-46 during that stretch, falling from first place to finish 10 back of the Atlanta Braves in the east and nine games out of a Wildcard.

In the off-season, the Nationals lost the player who had arguably become the face of the franchise over those seven seasons. Bryce Harper left the team at age 26 to sign as a free agent with the rival Phillies.

The Nationals brain trust believed that it could cover for the loss of Harper. They had a pair of exciting young Dominican outfielders ready to make an impact on an everyday basis in now 20-year-old Juan Soto, who was the runner-up for the 2018 NL Rookie of the Year Award, and 22-year-old Victor Robles.

But when the season opened, things didn’t go as planned in our nation’s capital. Injuries and inconsistent play resulted in a horrendous first two months. The Nationals woke up on Friday, May 24 back home after getting swept in four games at Citi Field by the division-rival New York Mets. They were a disheartening 19-31, and were already 10 games off the pace in the NL East.

Since that time, the Nationals have begun to regain some of their lost mojo. They have fashioned a 14-7 record over the last three weeks, and though still 8.5 out in the division, the Nationals are now just six games behind the Phillies in the race for the final NL Wildcard spot. Of course, there are also five other teams ahead of them in chasing that spot.

Rain takes out Phillies and Nats in opener, threatens entire series

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Rain will be a threat all week to four-game series in D.C.

The Philadelphia Phillies (39-32) and Washington Nationals (33-38) were rained out of what was originally scheduled to be the opener of a four-game series on Monday night.

The two teams will try once again to get the series underway, this time on Tuesday night at Nationals Park as the forecast once again is calling for a good chance of showers and thunderstorms in the D.C. area.

The National Weather Service as of late on Tuesday afternoon has placed the D.C. area under a severe thunderstorm watch until 10:00pm EDT, so we’ll just have to see whether they have better luck this time around in dodging those storms.

The Phillies are currently in second place in the National League East Division standings and control the second NL Wildcard playoff berth. The Nationals are in fourth place, six games behind the Phillies.

These are two teams who have been headed in opposite directions for weeks. But that direction would not be as reflected in their position in those current standings.

Washington has gone 14-7 over the last three weeks. They have begun to dig their way out of a deep hole in which the club found itself after the first two months of the schedule had been played. Meanwhile, the Phillies led the division for all but seven days until just about a week ago. But the club has dropped 10 of its last 16 games and has been unable to put together any kind of lengthy winning stretch.

Struggling Phillies open mid-June series with resurgent Nationals

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Many fans in both towns now conflicted over Werth and Harper

The struggling Philadelphia Phillies (39-32) continue with their road show, this time opening a four-game series with the rejuvenated Washington Nationals (33-38) on Monday night in our Nation’s Capital.

The Phillies are coming off a humbling Father’s Day experience in which they were dismantled by the division-leading Atlanta Braves in a 15-1 rout. They enter D.C. having now dropped five of their last seven games, and 10 of 16 going back to May 29.

After suffering through a horrendous 19-31 start that buried them in fourth place, 10 games out, the Nationals have begun to right their ship. The club has gone 14-7 since that point. Still in fourth place, but they are just six games behind the Phillies for the final NL Wildcard spot, and would love to cut into that deficit this week.

They enter the series fresh off their own 15-run experience. Only in their case, the Nats were the team scoring all the runs in a 15-5 win at home yesterday over the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The Nationals offensive attack ranks seventh in the National League in both runs scored and OPS, and they are third in stolen bases. On the mound their pitchers are tied for sixth in batting average against and seventh in OPS against, and the staff ranks first in strikeouts.

A big reason they are at the top of those strikeout rankings can be found in their starting rotation, and the Phillies will see the Nationals best this week. Washington will throw lefty Patrick Corbin in the opener, young Erick Fedde in the second game, and then finish up the series with Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg for the final two games.

These two teams have already met three times this season. They split a two-gamer in Washington back in early April. The Nationals then took two of three in Philly a week later, but saw the Phillies take two of three at Citizens Bank Park in early May. They will meet yet again in a four-gamer right after the MLB All-Star break back in Philadelphia, but then do not see one another until the first day of Fall, on September 23.

Of course, there is added intensity when these two clubs meet, at least from the Washington fans perspective, with star right fielder Bryce Harper having left town. In eight games between the two clubs this year, Harper has slashed .321/.472/.643 with two homers, three doubles, eight walks, seven RBIs, and six runs scored.

Harper was the Nationals pick at first overall in the 2010 MLB Draft and played his first seven seasons with them, winning the 2012 NL Rookie of the Year Award and the 2015 National League Most Valuable Player Award, and making the NL All-Star squad six times.

Mets beginning to wilt as summer approaches in the Big Apple

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2019 has not been kind to Mr. Met and his favorite ball club

Over the first ten weeks of the 2019 Major League Baseball season the Philadelphia Phillies spent all but seven days sitting at the top of the standings.

However, numerous key injuries and inconsistent play have caught up to the team. The Atlanta Braves have gotten hot and passed the Phillies for first place in the standings.

Now the Washington Nationals appear to have regained some equilibrium after a horrendous start, and have begun fighting their way back up the standings.

The Phillies lost two of three games to both the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Braves this past week. Now they will visit the Nationals for a big four-game set to open this current week down in our nation’s capital.

As always, my NL East Beat report reveals how each of those Phillies divisional rivals fared over the course of the past week: games scores, pivotal performers, key injuries, and other important updates on each team are included.

NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST DIVISION STANDINGS

EAST DIVISION

East Division

Team	W	L	W-L%	GB
Atlanta Braves	43	30	.589	--
Philadelphia Phillies	39	32	.549	3.0
New York Mets	34	38	.472	8.5
Washington Nationals	33	38	.465	9.0
Miami Marlins	25	45	.357	16.5

Data courtesy Baseball-Reference.com.

ATLANTA BRAVES (6 – 1)

Summary: The Braves were below the .500 mark at 18-20 in early May. But Atlanta has come alive over the last six weeks, surging to the top of the division standings by winning 24 of 34 since.

Phillies now face a key month with nothing but the NL East on the schedule

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It will be the Phillies vs the NL East for the next month

The Philadelphia Phillies (38-30) dropped the finale of a six-game homestand to the Arizona Diamondbacks on Wednesday night. That loss was their third in the last four games. They are just 5-8 since reaching a season-best 11 games over the .500 mark following a victory back on May 29.

Meanwhile, the defending National League East Division champion Atlanta Braves have gotten white hot. The Braves defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates by a 6-5 score on Thursday afternoon in Atlanta for their seventh consecutive victory, their ninth win over their last 11 games.

As a result of this recent turn of events for the two teams, the Phillies have fallen out of first place for the first time since April 25. They are now 1.5 games behind the Braves, a game back in the loss column.

The Phillies still control a National League Wildcard playoff slot, but are just 2.5 games up on both the Dbacks and the Colorado Rockies for that postseason berth, just two in the loss column on Colorado.

NFL head coach Jim Mora, then with the Indianapolis Colts, famously responded back in November 2001 to a reporter asking him about his team contending for a playoff berth: “Playoffs? Don’t talk about – playoffs? You kidding me? Playoffs?”

It is waaaaay too early to be worrying about playoffs for the Phillies. Before fans, and more importantly the team’s management, can think about the postseason, they have to worry about winning ball games on a more consistent basis.

Nationals still hanging around in the NL East race as June arrives

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Too early to count the Nationals out of the 2019 NL East race

The Philadelphia Phillies (37-28) are coming off a successful week in which they took two of three games from both the Padres in San Diego and the Cincinnati Reds at Citizens Bank Park.

That allowed the Phillies to remain alone on top of the standings in the National League East Division for another week. They have led the division for all but seven days thus far over the first 11 weeks of the 2019 regular season.

Each of the top four clubs in the division have now played 65 games, and we are now just a little more than two weeks away from the season’s halfway mark. The Atlanta Braves sit just one game out, with the New York Mets at five back, and the Washington Nationals seven behind.

It was yet another tough week for the Phillies on the injury front. It was announced at the start of last week that left fielder Andrew McCutchen would miss the rest of the season with a torn ACL. He will have surgery as soon as the swelling goes down, and should be ready for spring training next year.

Also, right-hander Seranthony Dominguez came down with elbow trouble that could require Tommy John surgery, knocking him out for the year as well. He becomes the eighth key Phillies reliever on the Injured List.

As always, my NL East Beat report reveals how each of those Phillies divisional rivals fared over the course of the past week: games scores, pivotal performers, key injuries, and other important updates on each team are included.

Nationals may finally be starting to heat up as June arrives in NL East

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It was a good week for Max Scherzer and the Nationals

This past week of action in Major League Baseball saw us pass Memorial Day and moved into the month of June. While the Philadelphia Phillies (33-26) remain in first place in the National League East Division standings, their lead has grown more tenuous.

Over this past weekend, I released my first MLB Power Rankings of the 2019 season. Fans of the team might be surprised to find that the Phillies ranked just 15th, exactly in the middle among the 30 teams.

This wasn’t an effort to be overly critical, provocative, or sensationalist. My Power Rankings are not at all based on my feelings. They are a statistics-based evaluation of where each team stands when factoring in offense, defense, and pitching factors, as well as their win-loss records.

The Phillies have remained atop their division largely because the other four teams haven’t done much to distinguish themselves this season. My rankings found the Braves as the top statistical team in the division, finishing four places above the Phillies at 12th overall in MLB. Meanwhile, the Mets, Marlins, and Nationals all ranked 22-23-24 in that order.

That the Phillies only turn out to rank as a middle-of-the-pack ball club should be cause for concern at this point. The team has major holes to fill in the starting rotation and on the bench, and has to find some way to overcome the plethora of injuries which have steadily eroded their bullpen depth.

And now, thanks to the arrest of their starting center fielder of the last five years on domestic assault charges, an incident that almost certainly has spelled the end of Odubel Herrera‘s time in Philly, the club powers-that-be have a hole in their starting lineup as well.

Currently in the midst of a four-game losing streak that is their longest of the season, the Phillies are now in San Diego for three games to end a 23-game stretch of the schedule that may be their toughest of the entire year. They are now 10-10 in that hard-fought month, which on balance is nothing of which to be ashamed.

The Phillies are a first-place baseball team. They have been perched atop the divisional standings for all but seven days in this 2019 regular season. But there remains a long summer ahead. Four months of grueling play. If they don’t address the holes, they will not remain on top for very long.

As always, my NL East Beat report reveals how each of those Phillies divisional rivals fared over the course of the past week: games scores, pivotal performers, key injuries, and other important updates on each team are included.

Phillies reach Memorial Day in first place in the National League East standings

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The top spot in the NL East standings remains occupied by the Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies (31-22) have been able to hold on to first place in the National League East Division standings while fighting their way through what is arguably the most challenging portion of their entire 2019 regular season schedule.

As we reach Memorial Day, the only off-day in this stretch of 23 games in 24 days against tough competition outside of the division, that daunting gauntlet has been more than halfway run.

The team has won seven of 10 games since dropping three of the first four during this stretch. The Phillies are now 8-6 over the first two weeks of the nearly month-long test.

The club returns home briefly on Tuesday to begin a three-game series with the Saint Louis Cardinals at Citizens Bank Park. Then the Phillies will head back out on the road, flying west for six games against the top two teams in the NL West, the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres.

The Phillies offensive attack has been inconsistent to this point, and is ranked mostly in the middle of the pack in the National League. They are currently 6th in the league in runs per game and on-base percentage, 8th in hits and OPS, 12th in home runs and steals.

So maybe it has been the pitching that has kept the Phillies in first place? Not hardly. The staff has been just as inconsistent. Phillies pitchers as a group are ranked 14th of the 15 NL teams in batting average against and OPS. They are 7th in ERA, 11th in strikeouts, 8th in walks.

Defense maybe? Nope. The Phillies rank just 10th in the league in fielding percentage. Their 31 errors are sixth-most in the National League.

Fact of the matter is that the Phillies have outperformed their team statistics to this point. That overall inconsistency is the primary reason that the club has won as many as four straight games just once all season – their first four games of the year. On the flip side, their talent is strong enough that they haven’t lost more than three in a row, which has happened just twice.

There is plenty of room for growth with this 2019 Phillies team. The most obvious is Bryce Harper. Despite ranking 15th in the NL in RBIs, Harper has underperformed his talent and career averages in nearly every other offensive category. Third base, where Maikel Franco has cooled considerably, and center field are other areas where improvement could come.