The story of the 2019 Phillies to date is one of blown opportunities

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Things have not gone as hoped for Edubray Ramos and the 2019 Phillies

So, you are a Phillies fan, and you are exhausted after Friday night’s 15-inning, 4-3 loss to one of the worst teams in Major League Baseball, the Chicago White Sox.

One strike away from victory, the Phillies blew it. The offense left 15 runners on base and went just 2-13 with runners in scoring position. The bullpen coughed up the late lead in the 9th inning. And manager Gabe Kapler‘s decisions resulted in outfielder Roman Quinn having to pitch two innings, ultimately getting hung with the loss.

If you are anything like me, you are completely exasperated with the way this team has lost many games this season. It feels as if there have been a dozen games or more in which the Phillies should have won, but somehow snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.

Well, I decided to actually go through the grueling ordeal of researching it. And looking back over the 2019 results shows that we are correct in our feelings. It’s not just that the Phillies have blown games that they should have won, they have also won a ton of tight games. The club has been involved in more than their share of close contests this season.

The Phillies have suffered 18 losses by two runs or fewer, and have been walked-off five times. On the flip side, they have 25 wins by two runs or less, with four walk-off victories. That makes 43 of the Phillies 109 games, nearly 40%, as having been extremely tight affairs.

In many of those losses, the Phillies had a late lead. In each of the following 17 games, fans would not need to apologize if they felt that the club missed a golden opportunity at a victory. These are the 17 games, 11 of them coming at home at Citizens Bank Park, that have caused the collective blood pressure to rise.

In the vast majority of these cases, the bullpen blew a late lead or failed in a tie game. However, in a few of them, greater success by the offense earlier in the game would have kept the pen out of the equation.

Nailing down the win in just under half of these games, simply going 8-9 rather than losing them all, would have the Phillies sitting at 65-44, a game up on Atlanta in the division and seven games clear of the NL Wildcard pack. If you have the stomach for it, let’s relive the excruciating details together.

Phillies get reliever Mike Morin from Twins for cash considerations

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Phillies swapped cash to Twins for reliever Mike Morin

The Philadelphia Phillies announced a trade this morning in which the club acquired right-handed relief pitcher Mike Morin from the Minnesota Twins in exchange for cash considerations. Morin had been DFA’d by Minnesota three days ago.

Morin is a 28-year-old Minnesota native who was the Los Angeles Angels 13th round selection in the 2012 MLB Amateur Draft out of the University of North Carolina.

He broke into the big-leagues just two years later with a strong 2014 rookie performance for the Halos in which he went 4-4 with a 2.90 ERA and 1.186 WHIP. Morin pitched in 60 games that year, allowing 51 hits over 59 innings with a 54/19 K:BB.

While he wasn’t awful over the next few years, Morin was never able to repeat that same level of performance, and he was released in the summer of 2017. The Kansas City Royals picked him up, but Morin was ineffective over a half-dozen September appearances with the Royals.

Waived by Kansas City, Morin was selected by the Seattle Mariners in December of 2017. He would make just three big-league appearances for Seattle in the 2018 season, though he pitched well over 41 appearances (including three starts) with the Mariners Triple-A affiliates at Tacoma in the Pacific Coast League.

Morin was granted free agency this past off-season and the Twins signed him to a $750k deal for the 2019 season. Prior to being designated for assignment earlier this week, Morin was enjoying a solid but unspectacular season as a deep arm in the first-place Minnesota bullpen.

Morin appeared in 23 games for the Twins this year, producing 3.18 ERA, 4.50 FIP and 0.971 WHIP marks. He allowed 20 hits, including three home runs, over 22.2 innings with an 11/2 K:BB ratio.

The righty normally brings his fastball in the 90-92 MPH range. However, he is not a strikeout pitcher by any measure. Morin primarily utilizes a sinker and an effective changeup to keep hitters off balance and induce ground balls, a repertoire that could actually play well at Citizens Bank Park.

Getting to be gut-check time early for the 2019 Philadelphia Phillies

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Phillies in desperate need of a gut-check win at SunTrust Park 

To call the Philadelphia Phillies (38-31) loss on Friday night to the Atlanta Braves (41-29) simply frustrating would be an understatement. The host Braves rallied from a five-run deficit entering the bottom of the 7th and a two-run deficit entering the bottom of the 9th to a walkoff, 9-8 victory over the Phillies.

The victory was an eighth straight for the surging Braves. It was also their 11th win in their last 13 games, and raised their record to 23-9 since the club fell two games below the .500 mark back on May 9.

On that day, the Braves were four games behind the first-place Phillies in the standings. But now, after turning their season around and after sending the visiting Phillies to their own fourth loss in five games, the Braves have pushed to the top of the NL East Division and hold a 2.5 game lead.

The Phillies now hold just a two game lead on both the Colorado Rockies and Arizona Diamonbacks, and a 2.5 game lead on the Saint Louis Cardinals, for the final National League Wildcard playoff spot.

Perhaps more important than worrying about the postseason, however, is winning right now. The Phillies are reeling, and all of the Pollyanna positive-thought talk from manager Gabe Kapler or anyone else in the organization isn’t going to change that fact.

This 2019 Phillies ball club has reached gut-check point. The club has gone just 5-9 over the last two weeks since a rousing 11-4 win over Saint Louis at Citizens Bank Park on May 29 pushed them to 11 games over the .500 mark and a 3.5 game division lead.

Can the Phillies regain whatever mojo allowed them to repeatedly overcome their inconsistencies to produce victories over the season’s first two months? Or are the multi-talented defending NL East champion Braves simply too much for them? Are the Braves just a better team? Could this Saturday night game at SunTrust Park in Atlanta possibly be a must-win game already, as we reach the exact mid-point in June?

Phillies search for a closer is over as Hector Neris seizes the role

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Hector Neris has seized the Phillies bullpen closer role

Phillies manager Gabe Kapler began the 2019 season without a named closer at the back-end of his pitching staff. There were a number of options who appeared to be reasonably attractive. The skipper chose to simply use whichever option appeared best at an important moment over the late innings based on specific match-ups.

What began as a group of a half-dozen arms who Kapler hoped would fill those end-game roles has gradually shrunk to dangerously low levels.

David Robertson started slowly, producing a 5.40 ERA and 2.100 WHIP over seven games. The veteran free agent signee allowed eight hits over his first 6.2 innings with a 6/6 K:BB ratio before going down with a flexor strain in mid-April. It had been assumed by many that he would ultimately see the bulk of any “closer” opportunities.

Edubray Ramos and Victor Arano have also wound up on the Injured List. Youngsters Seranthony Dominguez and Edgar Garcia, the former who many believe has the pure stuff to one day serve as a closer, have been inconsistent at best. Pat Neshek has mostly succeeded despite not having dominant stuff and getting hit hard at times.

But one arm has emerged to save the day. That would be the big right arm of 29-year-old Hector Neris.

Neris had been the Phillies closer entering the 2018 season. But he began the year blowing a series of games, and by the end of June his ERA had skyrocketed to the 6.90 mark. Mercifully, he was demoted to Triple-A in order to rediscover his mojo.

Over 19 games with the Lehigh Valley IronPigs, Neris regained his confidence. He dominated minor league hitters, allowing just nine hits over 18.2 innings, striking out 31 batters while walking just seven in that time.

In mid-August, the righty was called back to Philadelphia. He immediately carried over that minor league success to the big-leagues, becoming the National League’s Reliever of the Month even though he didn’t appear in a single game with the Phillies until the 15th of the month.

Some big decisions coming for hot-starting Phillies

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Roman Quinn (R) is nearly set to re-join the Phillies party

The Philadephia Phillies (6-2) are off to a hot start. Entering the second full week of the 2019 regular season they hold a half-game lead in the National League East Division with the rival Washington Nationals (4-4) coming in for a three-game visit to Citizens Bank Park.

One of the signatures of the team to this point has been the early season starting lineup consistency. Over the first half-dozen games, manager Gabe Kapler has made just one change. This past Saturday he gave catcher J.T. Realmuto a day off, starting Andrew Knapp in his place and sliding the bottom of the batting order around slightly.

The formula has worked. The Phillies are not only winning, but even after Sunday’s 2-1 victory over the Minnesota Twins they still rank fourth in all of Major League Baseball in runs scored per game.

Three situations are beginning to emerge as we move towards the middle of April. Kapler in crafting his lineup and general manager Matt Klentak in helping make broader roster moves are going to have some interesting decisions to make in the coming days involving the bench, second base, and the bullpen.

THE BENCH

To this point the Phillies have used four players off their bench. Knapp (3), Nick Williams (7), Aaron Altherr (5) and Scott Kingery (4) have all appeared in various roles as pinch-hitters or defensive replacements. Knapp is the only one of the group to get a start.

Those four players have not produced on a regular basis. Collectively they have three hits over 20 at-bats for a .150 average with one walk. The group has produced two RBI and scored one run.

The dynamic but chronically injury-prone Roman Quinn is nearly set to return from his latest physical ailment. Quinn can play all three outfield positions well, has a solid bat and has game-changing speed. When he is ready, likely within the next week, the Phillies will surely activate him. He has no minor league options remaining and would absolutely be claimed by another team, so he will be with the big club.

2019 Philadelphia Phillies preview and predictions

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Shortstop Jean Segura part of dynamic new Phillies lineup

The Philadelphia Phillies opened the 137th season in franchise history on Thursday with a big 10-4 victory over the defending National League champion Atlanta Braves. The victory came thanks to some stellar pitching from ace Aaron Nola and a power display from the new, deep lineup.

However, as all true fans of the game know, Opening Day is just one of 162 on the regular season schedule. While it’s always nice to get off on the right foot, a win in your first game does not always portend a season of success. A loss would not condemn your team to a losing campaign.

You might be interested in taking a few moments to go back and view both my 2017 Phillies preview and 2018 Phillies preview. Both were pretty solid looks at where the team would go and how they would finish.

Two years ago when some thought the Phillies were already a .500 team, I called it a 72-90 season. The club finished 66-96. Last year, I had them improving to 82-80. Thanks to a stumbling finish they were just 80-82. Still pretty close. I guarantee you that, barring major injuries, I’ll be close again this year.

EVERYDAY LINEUP IMPROVEMENT

The biggest single factor in the Phillies improving their record from last year to this 2019 season will be the overall power and depth coming from the everyday lineup.

PHILADELPHIA, PA – MARCH 28: Philadelphia Phillies Outfield Andrew McCutchen (22) is congratulated by Philadelphia Phillies Outfield Bryce Harper (3) after his lead off home run during the game between the Atlanta Braves and the Philadelphia Phillies on March 28, 2019 at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA.(Photo by Andy Lewis/Icon Sportswire)

Principal owner John Middleton pushed the ball over the finish line with his work to nail down superstar right fielder Bryce Harper. Earlier in the off-season, general manager Matt Klentak did some fantastic work in signing free agents Andrew McCutchen and David Robertson and adding Jean Segura and J.T. Realmuto via the trade route.

Manager Gabe Kapler chose to feature three of those newcomers as the first three hitters in his Opening Day lineup on Thursday. McCutchen led off, followed by Segura and Harper. Rhys Hoskins, returning to first base, was the cleanup hitter. He was followed by Realmuto in the five spot.

Jake Arrieta returning to form will be a major key for 2019 Phillies success

Arrieta had January knee surgery and looks ready

It was just over a year ago, on March 12, 2018, that free agent starting pitcher Jake Arrieta finally found a team for his services. Somewhat surprisingly, that team was the Philadelphia Phillies.

His choice was a bit of a surprise in that the Phillies were still trying to find a path back to long-term contending status. The team had not been a winner since 2011. At age 32, Arrieta was coming off a three-year stretch in which he had won both a Cy Young Award and World Series with the Chicago Cubs.

But with no other suitors willing to meet his price on a multi-year deal, Arrieta accepted the Phillies offer of a guaranteed $75 million over three seasons with two additional club option years.

The Phillies hoped that eight-year veteran could provide leadership to an otherwise young rotation as well as deliver consistently strong outings to help push the team closer to contention.

The leadership has come. The consistent strong outings came as well, but only for the first two months of the 2018 season. On May 29 of last season, Arrieta went seven shutout innings at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles as the Phillies downed the hosts by a 6-1 score.

He allowed just six hits, walked two and struck out five in raising his record to 5-2 on the year to that point. Over those first two months the right-hander allowed just a .230 batting average against. He yielded 48 hits over 58.1 innings with a 40/19 K:BB ratio and had given up just two home runs over his first 10 starts in a Phillies uniform.

But trouble suddenly developed in June. He suffered losses in four of his five outings and produced a frightening 6.66 ERA while surrendering seven long balls. Arrieta bounced back in July, when he pitched to a 2.80 ERA and .238 BAA across six starts. He went 4-0 in that stretch and allowed just two balls to leave the yard.

His August began with a gem in the Arizona desert. Arrieta went eight shutout innings against the host Diamondbacks, allowing just three hits and two walks. Unfortunately, young closer Seranthony Dominguez came on and blew a 2-0 lead in the bottom of the 9th of a game that the Phillies would ultimately lose in 14 innings.

Arrieta was rocked in San Diego six days later but recovered with a strong outing at home against the Mets on August 18. However, the offense let him down in that one for a 3-1 defeat. That was the first of eight losses in ten games that would drop the Phillies from a neck-and-neck battle with the Atlanta Braves at the top of the NL East standings to 4.5 games out.

By the end of the season it would grow to a 10-game deficit, and the pitching of Arrieta was partially to blame. Over his final seven starts beginning on August 24 he went just 1-3 with a 6.82 ERA, allowing 40 hits including nine homers over 34.1 innings.

Fantasy Baseball 2019: Ranking the current Phillies players for your team

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Phillies ace Aaron Nola should be taken high in fantasy drafts

We’re now pushing further into the month of March and that means just one thing. What? March Madness? Okay, okay…two things. At least for fans of fantasy sports and baseball, this is draft month.

While in most seasons those fantasy baseball drafts take place around the third or fourth week in the month, this year could be a little different. If your league counts the two Japan Opening Series games between the Oakland Athletics and Seattle Mariners on March 20-21, then your draft could be as soon as mid-month.

There are many more resources available these days to fantasy sports fans than when I first began playing fantasy baseball and football in the late 1980’s. What used to be largely opinion and educated guess-work presented in magazines – which you can still buy today – has grown into real-time, detailed information available on the internet.

It has become more and more difficult to separate yourself from the other competitors in your league in the area of information-gathering. At least those who are willing to put in the work.

One potential source of unique information comes from resources within each individual city or fan base. It is very possible that the people who are following a particular team on a regular basis have better information and insight than folks who are trying to follow 25-30 teams in a particular sport, sometimes dozens of teams across multiple sports.

That is where I am coming from with this piece. As someone who follows and reports on the Philadelphia Phillies on a regular basis, I’m going to help out my fellow fantasy baseball fans.

The following is a ranking of every current 2019 Phillies player who might be able to help your fantasy team in the coming season. I am also including a very brief reasoning behind each ranking. There won’t be any “which round” you should take most of the players, because there are so many different draft formats that nothing is truly “standard” these days.

Phillies lose reliever Tommy Hunter as first pitching injury of 2019

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Hunter becomes the first arm to go down in spring training

When objectively evaluating the Philadelphia Phillies 2019 roster for potential strengths and weaknesses, the bullpen would have to be listed on the “strengths” side of the ledger.

The addition of a few talented veterans this off-season to a solid returning group and some growing young arms has the pen looking stronger and deeper than it has in years.

Now less than two weeks into 2019 spring training that bullpen depth will begin to be tested. It’s first member has gone down due to injury. Tommy Hunter will be shut down for in indeterminate amount of time with a Grade 1 strain of the flexor muscle in his right pitching arm.

The flexor mass is a collection of muscles and tendons which come together in the forearm near the elbow. They function by allowing you to turn and flex your wrist. The injury as it affects a pitcher such as Hunter is described as follows by Robert G. Najarian, MD with Inova:

“With flexor mass strains, pitchers usually don’t feel pain until the follow-through phase of the pitch. That’s when you need the flexor mass to snap the wrist to get the ball in the strike zone. When the flexor mass is injured, the ball often ends high and pitchers can have problems locating their pitch.”

In general, Najarian states, the injury is treated with rest, anti-inflammatories, and a strength/rehabilitation program. Some players are out for just two weeks. For others the recovery can take as long as six to eight weeks. It all depends upon the severity of the injury and the individual player’s ability to recuperate.

The hope is that the Phillies and Hunter caught the injury early enough that this method of recovery will do the job. If such an injury is allowed to go untreated for too long, it could result in ligament damage and possibly the dreaded Tommy John surgery.

Hunter was signed by the Phillies as a free agent in December 2017 to a two-year, $18 million contract. The 32-year-old, 11-year veteran will not throw for two weeks and then will be re-evaluated.

The Phillies bullpen ranked around the middle of baseball last season. The club’s relievers as a group ranked 18th in ERA and BAA, 10th in K/9, and 11th in saves and K/BB among the 30 teams of Major League Baseball.

Hunter was likely going to be called upon by manager Gabe Kapler in the 5th-7th innings. He is one of a strong group of right-handed relievers that also includes David Robertson, Pat Neshek, Hector Neris, Seranthony Dominguez, Juan Nicasio, Edubray Ramos, and Victor Arano.

Phillies 2019 bullpen just one piece short of elite status

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Juan Nicasio brings a veteran presence to deeper Phillies bullpen

Philadelphia Phillies general manager Matt Klentak had four major boxes that needed to be checked off when this off-season began if he wanted to truly build a contending team for the 2019 season.

Those four were a proven impact run-producer for the middle of the batting order, a better defensive lineup, another veteran starting pitcher (preferably left-handed), and improvements to the bullpen.

With the additions of Andrew McCutchen in left field and Jean Segura at shortstop, the defense should be improved. The club continues to search for the middle-order bat and the southpaw rotation arm.

It cannot be argued that Klentak has not improved the bullpen. Given health, the Phillies relief corps is both talented and deep, and should prove to be a strength for manager Gabe Kapler.

The Phillies have added three new arms to their bullpen. Right-hander Juan Nicasio and left-hander James Pazos arrived as part of the Segura trade from Seattle. Then just days ago the club signed one of baseball’s top relievers over the past decade, David Robertson, as a free agent.

Those three join a returning group that could include any from among righties Hector Neris, Seranthony Dominguez, Pat Neshek, Tommy Hunter, Victor Arano, and Edubray Ramos. There are two returning lefties in Adam Morgan and Austin Davis as well.

The Phillies could still use a better situational left-handed arm. But a closer look at the statistics shows that the arms needed to win match-ups with big lefty bats may already be here.

Robertson had a 53/10 K:BB ratio against left-handed hitters a year ago. Those opposing lefty batters hit the right-handed Robertson for just a .176 BAA as well as a .378 slugging percentage.

The one negative for Robertson against those lefties was that they got to him for a half-dozen home runs over 132 plate appearances against him. In comparison, he surrendered just one long ball to a right-handed batter over 151 plate appearances against.

During his breakthrough rookie campaign a year ago, lefty batters hit for just a .188 average against Dominguez. His biggest problem with them were walks, as Dominguez handed out 14 free passes to lefties in 116 plate appearances. Compare that to just eight right-handers that he walked over 115 plate appearances.

Phillies Top 20 Prospects Summer 2018

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Pitcher Sixto Sanchez is the consensus top Phillies prospect

The Phillies Nation official Top 20 Philadelphia Phillies prospect ranking has been compiled from a survey of select members of our current staff.

Taking part in the survey were myself, Editorial Director Tim Kelly and staff writer Alec Whitaker, who produces our “Minor League Mash-up” series and regularly covers the Phillies minor league system here at Phillies Nation.

Each of these staffers presented their own individual Phillies Top 20 Prospect lists, which were then compiled into what you find presented below as our official ranking.

The staff here at Phillies Nation all follow the organization on a regular basis, from the lowest levels of the minor leagues on up through the big league club. We regularly read over the evaluations of both industry experts and others who closely follow the team.

We also attend games at a number of levels, watch TV broadcasts of the big club and minor league affiliates, and get to see players and prospects actually perform on the field.

These types of lists are always going to be subjective in nature. However, we incorporate the opinions of industry experts from places such as MLB Pipeline, Baseball America and a variety of other respected outside resources in helping to form our individual opinions.

This Phillies Nation version of the current Phillies Top 20 Prospects reflects those influences. It presents fans with a realistic picture of the very best youngsters now moving through the organization’s minor league system.

As for qualifications, we operated with the standard that to be considered, players must have not used up their MLB rookie qualifications of 130 big league at-bats or 50 innings pitched.

To come up with each player’s ranking, I simply took each of our three staffer’s lists and assigned a numeric point value based on those lists. A first place ranking from our staffer got you one point, a fifth place spot five, a 12th place spot got you 12 points. Add up the points for a total with the lowest being the best, and that’s how the final PN rankings were established. There were 15 prospects who received votes from all three of us.

You will find full write-ups on the top 10, and then 11-20 simply ranked. As a bonus, players who were mentioned by one of our staffers but who didn’t make the official rankings will be noted as well.

PHILLIES NATION: PHILLIES TOP 20 PROSPECTS

Sanchez was rated in the top spot by all three Phillies Nation evaluators.

1. Sixto Sanchez, RHP: The consensus top Phillies prospect at this time, not only on our PN list, but also per every reputable industry resource. Sanchez just left his teenage years behind a little over a week ago, and has spent the past couple of months on the minor league disabled list after suffering inflammation in his right (pitching) elbow. Signed by the Phillies as a 16-year-old international free agent out of his native Dominican Republic back in 2015, Sanchez has been advancing incrementally through the club’s farm system ever since. Over eight starts at High A Clearwater this season, he’s gone 4-3 with a 2.51 ERA and 1.071 WHIP, allowing 39 hits over 46.2 innings with a 45/11 K:BB ratio. Whitaker commented that “no one in the Phillies system has as much upside as the 20-year-old flamethrower.” MLB.com backs up that description with their scouting report: “It’s hard not to get excited about Sanchez’s combination of pure stuff and feel for pitching. While he is just six feet tall, he’s strong and athletic with a repeatable delivery that points to a future in a rotation. He can hit triple digits with his four-seam fastball and also features a two-seamer with a ton of sinking action. His fastball is better than its pure velocity because of its movement as well as his ability to command it extremely well. His secondary stuff continues to improve, with a breaking ball he adds and subtracts from and a changeup he shows a good feel for at times. Both will flash above-average to plus, and given his overall feel for pitching, there is confidence both will get there consistently in time.” The Phillies are being understandably conservative in handling his rehabilitation. It is hoped that he will return to pitching this month. Assuming he is recovered and progresses physically, it would not be unreasonable to expect Sanchez to reach Double-A Reading next season, and possibly get a taste of Triple-A Lehigh Valley as well. By spring of 2020, when he will still be just 21 years of age, Sanchez should be pushing for a role in the Phillies starting rotation.

Bullpen becoming a strength for the Phillies

Seranthony Dominguez (R) has strengthened the 'pen

The Philadelphia Phillies dropped a 3-0 heartbreaker on Wednesday night at Citi Field. The host New York Mets won it on a two-out, pinch-hit, three-run home run from Brandon Nimmo off Phillies reliever Mark Leiter Jr to gain a split of the four-game series between the division rivals.

For some Phillies fans, this might seem like just another in a string of games blown by the bullpen. The relief corps has been much maligned this season. Some of the individual pitchers have certainly deserved the criticism at times.

What those same fans may not have noticed is that the Phillies bullpen has been extremely effective since the calendar turned to July. 

Frankly, games like last night’s are going to happen to almost every team over the course of a long 162-game season. However, a look at the statistics shows that the Phillies bullpen may be turning into a strength.

Here are the numbers put up by the various Phillies relief pitchers, beginning with games of July 1:

As you can tell from Leiter’s figures, this was the bullpen performance up until the time he stepped on to the mound last night. Prior to that appearance, Phillies relief pitchers had a cumulative 1.06 ERA during the month of July.

In fact, it looked as if Leiter was going to continue that excellence when the inning began. He retired the first two Mets batters to start the frame.

After a two-out double by Amed Rosario, the Phillies right-hander got to 3-2 on Jose Reyes. But the veteran Mets hitter layed off a low-and-away changeup, drawing a free pass to set-up Nimmo’s walkoff heroics.

Yes, if you want to get technical, as well as to generalize, “the bullpen blew it” last night. But the Phillies relief pitchers have actually been helping this team as the dog days of summer have begun.

Even though the offense has managed just four or fewer runs in eight of the 10 games this month, the club has gone 7-3. That improved work from the bullpen has been an important factor.

Not ready to commit to the Phillies as 2018 contenders just yet

Phillies need one or two pieces to stay in contention

It’s the day after Independence Day, and an off-day on the Major League Baseball schedule for the Philadelphia Phillies. The team leaves today on an 11-game road trip leading up to the MLB All-Star Game. It will be July 20 before home fans get to see the local nine play again on the grass at Citizens Bank Park.

The Fightin’ Phils just took both games of a quick two-game series with Manny Machado and the Baltimore Orioles. They can now be considered as hot as the weather. Winners of five of their last six games, the club has stormed to 10 games over the .500 mark for the first time all season.

That recent hot stretch of play has them sitting just 1.5 games behind the Atlanta Braves in the National League East Division standings. The Phillies are just a game back of Atlanta in the loss column. They also currently control the second of two National League Wildcard playoff berths.

Overall theirs is the ninth-best record among the 30 clubs in Major League Baseball, fifth-best in the National League. Following five straight losing campaigns in which they finished no higher than fourth place in the division and at the bottom three times, this season can be considered nothing but a success to this point.

So why am I reluctant to fully commit to the idea that these 2018 Philadelphia Phillies are truly a playoff contender right now?

First, let me say that I’m excited for the future. The organization has been going about the rebuild in the right way over the last few seasons. Minor league talent has been accumulated through trades and the draft. Much of that talent has begun to surface to help the big club, both now and for the future.

I was fairly on the fence regarding their free agent signings this past off-season. Jake Arrieta – approved. Carlos Santana – disapproved. Pat Neshek and Tommy Hunter – hopeful.

My reluctance with committing to the current Phillies being able to sustain their present pace and remain in playoff contention comes from an evaluation of their statistical performance. If nothing is done by management to improve these weaknesses, they will most likely cause this year’s team to fall short of the postseason.

Offensively, the Phillies current ranks among the 15 National League ball clubs in select key categories are as follows: runs (10), batting average (13), on-base percentage (5), OPS (11), home runs (7), stolen bases (9).

Defensively, the Phillies current ranks within the National League are even more challenging. They are just 14th of the 15 clubs in fielding percentage. The team has committed the second-most errors. Their limited range is exposed by the ranking of 11th in assists.

Some of the offensive shortfall can be attributed to youth. Per Baseball-Reference, the Phillies hitters have the youngest cumulative average age in all of baseball:

Oldest average age of hitters:
1. #Angels
2. #Giants
3. #BlueJays
4. #Mariners
5. #Royals

Youngest:
1. #Phillies
2. #WhiteSox
3. #Yankees
4. #Cubs
5. #Padreshttps://t.co/1cVzUJwzTy

— Baseball Reference (@baseball_ref) July 5, 2018