Phillies take a flyer on lefty starting pitcher Drew Smyly

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Drew Smyly still has not returned to form after TJ surgery

The Philadelphia Phillies have reached a contract agreement with 30-year-old free agent starting pitcher Drew Smyly, according to numerous reliable sources.

Smyly is expected to step into the club’s starting rotation quickly. That could mean as soon as this weekend in Pittsburgh, though it is unknown exactly how ready he will be to go deep into an outing at this point.

The left-hander pitched in 13 games this season, nine of those as a starter, for the Texas Rangers. He was 1-5 with an 8.42 ERA, 8.05 FIP, and 1.909 WHIP. Smyly allowed 64 hits over 51.1 innings with a 52/34 K:BB ratio.

Those are some ugly numbers. Any casual fan who simply looks at such a “back of the baseball card” line and wonders why this signing is anything to get excited about would be absolutely correct in their reaction. Smyly has a lot to prove, and is certainly not to be considered “the answer” to the Phillies present rotation troubles.

However, what the team has to be hoping is that they will ultimately get more professional, big-league caliber performances from Smyly at the back-end of their rotation than have been delivered by Nick Pivetta, Vince Velasquez and Zach Eflin. Also, with Jake Arrieta battling bone spurs in his pitching elbow, there is no telling how long the veteran will hold up.

Smyly has tasted success in Major League Baseball. A native of Little Rock, Arkansas, he was the second round choice of the Detroit Tigers at 68th overall in the 2010 MLB Draft out of the University of Arkansas.

Smyly broke into the big-leagues with Detroit, appearing as both a starter and reliever in the 2012-14 seasons. He also made 10 appearances out of the bullpen with the Tigers in the 2012-13 postseason, including a pair of appearances in the 2012 World Series against the San Francisco Giants.

Smyly was dealt to the Tampa Bay Rays in a big three-team swap at the 2014 MLB trade deadline. The Tigers landed David Price from Tampa Bay in that deal in what would prove a failed attempt by Detroit to reach a fourth straight ALCS.

With the Rays, Smyly immediately stepped into the starting rotation and was outstanding. He went 3-1 with a 1.70 ERA, allowing just 25 hits over 47.2 innings across seven starts with a 44/11 K:BB ratio, establishing himself at age 25 as key piece of the Rays future.

Mickey Moniak beginning to look like a worthy top draft pick

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Moniak was the top overall pick in the 2016 MLB Draft

During their recent half-decade plummet to the bottom of the National League standings, the Philadelphia Phillies found themselves picking at a high position in the annual MLB Amateur Draft on a regular basis.

The Phillies had such a horrendous season in 2015 that their 63-99 record proved to be the worst in all of Major League Baseball. That set the club up with the #1 overall pick of the 2016 MLB Draft.

This was going to be far from a slam-dunk selection. Sure, the draft has yielded some true impact players with that first overall pick. Since the turn of the century, that top pick has produced stars in Joe Mauer, David Price, Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper, Gerrit Cole, and  Carlos Correa.

However, there have been as many misses as hits. Players selected #1 overall since the year 2000 also include Bryan Bullington (2002), Delmon Young (2003), Matt Bush (2004), Mark Appel (2013), and Brady Aiken (2014). Some were injury casualties. Some simply never developed as hoped.

Others made an impact, but it would be hard to say that they justified a first overall draft selection: Luke Hochevar (2006) and Tim Beckham (2008) fall into this category.

Even Justin Upton, taken first overall in 2005, has to be considered an overall disappointment when considering he was the top draft pick. Dansby Swanson, the top selection in the 2015 draft by the Arizona Diamondbacks, is just emerging this year as an impact player after being traded to the Atlanta Braves.

In June of 2016, Matt Klentak was overseeing his first draft as the general manager of the Phillies. Johnny Almaraz was the club’s head of amateur scouting at the time. When MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred stepped to the podium to announce the selection, he called the name of Mickey Moniak, an outfielder from La Costa Canyon High School in Carlsbad, California.

Phillies could use another strong starting pitcher, and lefty Patrick Corbin fits the bill perfectly

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(Corbin has spent his first seven big-league seasons with Arizona)

There has been a great deal of warranted commentary regarding the upcoming Major League Baseball “Hot Stove” season here in Philadelphia.

Most of that talk has been understandably centered around the two biggest free agent bats, Bryce Harper and Manny Machado.

However, there is little denying that if the Phillies want to step up and contend over the next three or four years, they need to add another winning arm to their starting rotation.

Aaron Nola stepped up in 2018 to demonstrate that he can be the young ace for whom the franchise has been searching for a few years. Jake Arrieta was signed as a free agent early in spring training. He played a solid, veteran second-fiddle to Nola for much of this past season.

Behind those two, the trio of Vince Velasquez, Nick Pivetta, and Zach Eflin received the vast majority of starting pitching opportunities.

The level of major step forward that the club will require in order to successfully battle and overcome their National League East Division rivals next year cannot be expected to come from all three of them progressing.

Luckily for the Phillies there is a starting pitcher available in free agency who would perfectly slot in where needed, as a strong left-handed starting pitching option for their rotation.

During what was his sixth season with the Arizona Diamondbacks, Patrick Corbin turned 29-years-old in mid-July. He was originally a second-round draft pick of the Angels back in 2009, and was dealt to Arizona a year later in a trade package for veteran starter Dan Haren.

As he reached his prime years over the last two seasons, Corbin began to show significant progress on the mound. This past year the New York native became a National League All-Star for the second time.

Corbin made 33 starts for the Dbacks, allowing just 162 hits over 200 innings pitched. He produced an outstanding 246/48 K:BB ratio with a 3.15 ERA, 1.050 WHIP, an ERA+ of 137, and an outstanding 2.47 FIP mark

There is no reason that Corbin should not be expected to deliver five strong seasons during his next contract, which would take him through his age 33 campaign. That is the same age Arrieta will turn during spring training next season.

Corbin made $7.5 million this past year and has earned just over $15.5 million during his Major League Baseball career. This will be his big contract opportunity, and it can be expected that his agents at ISE Baseball will be looking to maximize for their client.

Red Sox vanquished in ALDS, but they'll be back

The Boston Red Sox should contend once again in 2018

The Houston Astros came from behind, scoring twice in the 8th and once in the 9th inning, then held off a last-ditch rally to down the Boston Red Sox by a 5-4 score on Monday afternoon.

The victory advances Houston into the American League Championship Series for the first time since the 2005 postseason. The defeat in front of more than 37,000 mostly disappointed fans at historic Fenway Park sends the host Red Sox home for the winter.

Over the last decade and a half, those Fenway faithful and the team they love have enjoyed the greatest period of sustained success in franchise history. In those last 15 seasons, the Red Sox have reached the postseason nine times, capturing three World Series titles.

But more importantly for the future of the team is that the prospects for long term future success appears to be just as bright as those recent victorious campaigns.

The Red Sox are blessed with one of the most talented group of young players in Major League Baseball. Half of their projected lineup of position players will spend all of the 2018 season at or below 25 years of age.

ALDS Prediction: Houston Astros over Boston Red Sox

One ALDS opens this afternoon with Houston hosting Boston

The Division Series open today in the American League, and each series features a strong AL East contender.

I'm picking both of these "beasts of the east" to go down at the hands of what like slightly more talented opponents.

In one ALDS, the Houston Astros, champions of the AL West, will be facing the Boston Red Sox, champs of the AL East. In the other series, the Cleveland Indians, champions of the AL Central and the defending American League champs, will be taking on the wildcard New York Yankees.

Let's take the Houston-Boston matchup first. The Astros won 101 games during the regular season, running away with the AL West crown by 21 games.

It was the franchise' first division title since 2001, and puts them into the postseason for the second time in three years. In 2015, Houston was edged out in a five-game ALDS by the eventual World Series champion Kansas City Royals.

The Red Sox went 93-69, and held off the Yankees down the stretch to capture their second consecutive division title, their third in five seasons. The Bosox were swept out of the ALDS a year ago by Cleveland.

Tampa Bay Rays successfully transition Alex Colome to the closer role

Colome (L) leads the American League in Saves

Way back on July 28, 2000 the then Tampa Bay Devil Rays completed a trade with the Oakland Athletics. The D-Rays sent away a pair of arms in Jim Mecir and Todd Belitz, and in return received a Double A right-hander named Jesus Colome.

Colome had a big arm, with pitches clocked at over 100 miles per hour. He made his big league debut with Tampa in June of 2011 as a reliever, beginning what would be a 10-year career in Major League Baseball.

Colome left via free agency, signing with the New York Yankees. He would end up pitching again in the big leagues with the Washington Nationals, Milwaukee Brewers, and Seattle Mariners. Jesus retired following the 2010 season at age 32, but would show up for a 2012 stint in the Mexican League.

A year later, the Rays would debut another Colome at the big league level. This one was Alex Colome, the nephew of Jesus. The younger Colome had signed out of the Dominican Republic as an 18-year old in March of 2007.

Rick Porcello turnaround could help Bosox pull away

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Rick Porcello helping the Bosox take charge in AL East

As late as June 2, the Boston Red Sox were just four games over the .500 mark. At that point, the team sat in third place in the AL East race, three games behind the arch-rival New York Yankees.

Flash forward a little more than seven weeks, and the Bosox have taken charge. They went 26-19 to flip the standings position, now leading the Yanks by 3.5 after the games of Saturday, July 22.

For the second straight season, Boston has an AL Cy Young Award front-runner. This time around, that top starting pitcher is lefty Chris Sale.

But last season’s top starter has struggled for much of the 2017 season. Rick Porcello won the 2016 AL Cy Young Award following the best season by far of his then eight-year big league career.

Porcello went 22-4 a year ago with a 3.15 ERA and 1.009 WHIP. He allowed just 193 hits over 223 innings with a 189/32 K:BB ratio.

Flash forward to this season, and Porcello’s numbers are nowhere near that level. The 28-year old righty has gone 4-12 with a 4.60 ERA and 1.436 WHIP. He has allowed 156 hits over 125.1 innings with a 115/24 K:BB mark.

Porcello has regressed to the type of pitcher he had been in his first seven seasons. That would be a nice, reliable, mid-rotation innings eater as opposed to a top of the rotation ace-caliber starter.

However, his recent starts have begun to signal what could be a turnaround towards numbers closer in line to last season.

MLB Draft first rounders not guaranteed success

Last night's first round of the 2017 MLB Amateur Draft was full of excitement and anticipation for the teams and families involved. 

However, history shows that most of those selected will prove to be forgettable choices.

As an example, a look back at the draft from exactly a decade ago reveals such varied results. There were a couple of superstars in that 2007 MLB Draft, and a few other star-caliber players. There were also some who carved out a small niche for themselves in the big leagues.

But there were also a bunch of never-weres mixed into the selection process. Each one of those misses was considered to be a strong prospect at the time they were drafted.

The Tampa Bay Rays held the first overall pick in 2007, and there really wasn't much of a choice. Left-handed pitcher David Price from Vanderbilt had been considered a near lock for that top selection for months.

With the second pick, the Kansas City Royals chose a left-side infielder from Chatsworth High School in California. The surprise was that the Royals selection was Mike Moustakas rather than Chris Dominguez. 'Moose' had put on a big time power display that spring to pass his more heavily scouted teammate.

Top Ten MLB active starting pitchers based on career WHIP

There are many ways to evaluate the top MLB players of recent years, as well as down through the history of the game.

The statistic of WHIP, or "Walks + Hits / Innings Pitched", has become one of the more popular tools to make such evaluations. It is one of my personal favorites.

WHIP is fairly simply to calculate. You simply add the number of hits and walks that a pitcher allows, then divide that total by the number of innings pitched by the hurler.

This afternoon out in Los Angeles, two of the best current starting pitchers in baseball will be facing off. Left-hander Clayton Kershaw takes the mound for the host Los Angeles Dodgers. For the visiting Washington Nationals, it will be right-hander Stephen Strasburg who toes the rubber.

This premier matchup got me to thinking, who exactly are the best starting pitchers of recent vintage? I have my opinion, but what do the stats show?

Tim Beckham Making Most of Latest Opportunity

Former top MLB draft pick Tim Beckham finally producing in Tampa

The Tampa Bay Rays won the American League pennant in 2008, reaching the World Series for the only time in their history.

The excitement of that 2008 Fall Classic came just one year after the Rays had finished with the worst overall record in Major League Baseball.

As a result of that poor 2007 finish, Tampa Bay held the rights to the top overall pick in the MLB Amateur Draft in June of 2008. With that selection, the Rays chose shortstop Tim Beckham out of Griffin High School in Georgia.

Also selected in that first round included first baseman Eric Hosmer at third overall by the Kansas City Royals. The San Francisco Giants chose catcher Buster Posey with the fifth overall pick.

It was a third consecutive year in which the Rays were selecting within the top three overall picks of the draft. The previous year, the club chose pitcher David Price with the top overall pick. In 2006, the Rays took third baseman Evan Longoria at third overall.

Boston Red Sox Just Pitching Away From Domination

The Boston Red Sox have some of the best young position player talent in the game and just need to upgrade their pitching in order to become truly dominant.

The Boston Red Sox finished at the top of the American League East Division standings in 2016. The club finished four games ahead of both the Toronto Blue Jays and the Baltimore Orioles.

In the postseason, the Red Sox were swept out of the ALDS in three straight games by the Cleveland Indians. Two of the three games were decided by a single run.

The BoSox will be losing their longtime leader, David Ortiz, who rides off into the sunset of retirement. He will take 38 homers, 127 RBI, and a .315/.401/.620 slash line at age 40 with him.

While the loss of Big Papi will be a big one in many ways, the Red Sox have young talent that can make up for that loss. Veterans Hanley Ramirez and Dustin Pedroia will return to man the right side of the infield. They will provide the experience while a group of the most exciting and dynamic youngsters in the game continues to develop.

Shortstop Xander Bogaerts, third baseman Yoan Moncada, center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr., and right fielder Mookie Betts are all among the best in the game at their positions. All are in their low-mid 20s.

MLB 2016 Prediction: American League Cy Young Award

Our staff has just released our predictions for the winners of each division, as well as our postseason predictions, including the 2016 World Series winner. 

I released my own predictions for the Phillies in the coming season. 

Now we begin the process of releasing our predictions for some of MLB’s major award winners.

The Cy Young Award is given annually to the top pitchers in Major League Baseball. Instituted for the 1956 season, the award was originally given to just one pitcher as the best in all of baseball from 1956 through the 1966 season.

In the American League, 11 different pitchers have won the award over the last 11 years. Johan Santana became the last to win it multiple times in the 2004 and 2006 seasons. 

Former Phillies stars Roy Halladay in 2003 with the Toronto Blue Jays and Cliff Lee in 2008 with the Cleveland Indians have won the AL version of the award.

The last two years saw surprise winners in the junior circuit, as both Corey Kluber of the Cleveland Indians and Dallas Keuchel of the Houston Astros came apparently out of nowhere to take home the honors.

MLB August 2014 Power Ranking

Mike Trout leads Halos in battle with A's for AL supremacy

It's the 2/3 mark of the MLB regular season, and the 2014 non-waiver trade deadline has just passed. There are clear leaders across all 6 divisions, but none with more than a 5-game lead.

In the American League Wildcard race there are 6 teams within 5 1/2 games of the final spot, 4 of them with winning records. In the National League, there are 5 teams within 6 games, 3 of them at .500 or better.

Baseball's top individual player in WAR is LA Angels outfielder Mike Trout, the runner-up for the league's MVP Award in each of his first two full seasons. Trout is again a leading contender for the award, and he has driven his Angels into a tie atop the Power Ranking.

The PR will now be updated twice a month, and at season's end. So look here again on August 15th, September 1st, September 15th, and again immediately after the close of the MLB regular season.

POWER RANKING - AUGUST 1ST

1. OAKLAND ATHLETICS
The A's were the top team in the June ranking and #2 in July. For August they are back atop, but this time they are joined by their division-rival Angels in a statistical overall dead heat. I'm listing the Athletics first, because in the actual A.L. West race they lead by 2 games. GM Billy Beane has decided to go all in to win the division, completing trades this past month to bolster the rotation by bringing in righty Jeff Samardzija and lefty Jon Lester. The acquisitions should make the team's 10th-ranked overall Pitching become even more of a separator going forward. The A's are ranked 2nd in Offense, and 9th in Fielding.

1. LOS ANGELES ANGELS
The Angels are 2 games behind Oakland in the A.L. West, but are in total control of an A.L. Wildcard berth, holding an 8 1/2 game lead in that race. The two division rivals are almost certain to both make the post-season. They will meet 10 more times in the final 53 games, 7 of those this month. It's a 3-gamer in Oakland mid-month, a 4-gamer in Anaheim at end-of-month, then back to Oakland in mid-September. Both teams are talented, but it may be tough for the Halos to keep pace now with the A's rotation pickups. The Angels rank 1st in Offense, 8th in Fielding, and 12th in Pitching. They could really use another veteran starting pitcher or two, if that is possible at this point.

3. WASHINGTON NATIONALS
The Nats are the PR's fast-risers. They didn't even make the June write-up, because they didn't have a winning record. By July they had risen into the rankings at the #9 spot. Now they're all the way up to #3 overall, and the National League's top team. They hold a 2-game lead on Atlanta in the N.L. East race, but just a game and a half on the Wildcard, so unlike the A.L. top teams, nothing is secure for them. They have the game's #1 ranked Pitching staff, but are rated just 12th in Offense and 13th in Fielding. A huge key has been their return to health, especially getting Jayson Werth and Bryce Harper into the everyday lineup. If Harper can find his stroke and take off, the Nats could run away and hide.

3. KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Despite being on the outside-looking-in of the A.L. playoff race, the Royals remain among the game's top 5 teams statistically. They are tied with Washington, and are the American League's 3rd overall team. In the A.L. Central race, they trail Detroit by 5 games, and they are just 2 games out of the Wildcard. However, they just lost 1st baseman and team leader Eric Hosmer to injury. He'll be back, but the week's that he will miss could be pivotal. The team is the #1 Fielding team in all of baseball, and is 11th in Pitching. But their 14th rated offense holds them back, and is the weak link that may cause them to miss the MLB playoffs for a 29th straight season, the longest current such streak in the game.

5. ATLANTA BRAVES
The Braves trail Washington by just 2 games in the N.L. East, and are just 1 1/2 games out in the Wildcard race, so they are squarely in the hunt for a post-season berth. But they were the 3rd overall team in baseball for the July rankings, so they did slip a bit over the last month. Currently the club ranks 7th in MLB in both Pitching and Fielding, but their Offense is just 13th ranked. They are one of the most inconsistent offensive teams among all contenders largely due to a debilitating propensity towards the strikeout. At least right now, this has the look of a team that may not even make the playoffs. If they do get in, they could make a quick exit. Atlanta absolutely needs to solve their offensive woes.

5. BOSTON RED SOX
Statistically the Bosox are not a bad team. They rank 3rd in Pitching and 4th in Fielding in all of MLB. But it is their 20th rated Offense that has been a killer. They've fallen 12 1/2 games out in the A.L. East race, and are even 10 games behind in the Wildcard chase. At the trade deadline, they swapped out free agent-to-be ace starter Jon Lester for A's slugger Yoenis Cespedes, obviously addressing their offensive needs in exchange for some of that excellent pitching. It may be too little-too late for Boston in 2014, however.

5. TAMPA BAY RAYS
Statistically, the Rays are not a bad team. This is not a recording (see above.) Tampa dug themselves a massive hole by playing poorly for the first two months of the season. They spent the better part of June and July digging themselves out of that hole. But much like their A.L. East division rivals in Boston, they may have cashed out by dealing veteran ace David Price at the deadline. The Rays are 7 1/2 out in the division, just 5 out in the Wildcard. But the loss of Price might signal a downturn now, at least in the short term.

8. SAINT LOUIS

9. BALTIMORE

10. SEATTLE

Best of the rest:
Detroit Tigers, Toronto Blue Jays, New York Yankees, Cleveland Indians, Milwaukee Brewers, Los Angeles Dodgers, Cincinnati Reds

My call:
Baseball is setup for one of the tightest multi-team finishes in it's history. The Athletics made the biggest moves to separate themselves at the Trade Deadline. Right now, they have to be considered the top team in the A.L. and in the game, and I would grant the Washington Nationals that same status in the N.L. heading into the Dog Days of August. No doubt that this month will shake out a few of the above teams from contending status. Still too soon to call any of the races, and that is amazing.