Nick Pivetta continues to struggle at back of Phillies rotation

Nick Pivetta's struggles continued on Friday night

The Phillies crushed the host Pirates by a 17-5 score on Friday night at PNC Park in Pittsburgh. The win moved the team into first place by percentage points in the National League East Division standings.

It also marked the 15th victory over the club’s last 22 games. Even more recently, the Phils have taken five in a row and seven of their last eight.

There was plenty of good news to go around from an offensive attack that has struggled mightily during most of that winning stretch. For the most part it has been strong pitching, particularly from the starting rotation, that has pushed the Phillies back to contending status.

The news was not all good last night. Starting pitcher Nick Pivetta lasted just 2.2 innings, struggling through 74 pitches in the short outing. He surrendered three runs on five hits while walking two batters. Further, the poor outing directly led to manager Gabe Kapler needing to use six relief pitchers in the opening game of a long road trip.

This was not a one-time aberration performance from Pivetta. The 25-year old right-hander has been struggling mightily for a month and a half now. In fact, only five of his 17 starts all season have resulted in a Quality Start effort: at least six innings pitched, no more than three earned runs allowed.

Pivetta is 0-5 over his last eight starts, and hasn’t won as a starting pitcher since May 21. He has allowed 47 hits, including 13 home runs, and walked 16 opposing batters over 35.2 innings in that span. The Phillies problems at the back of their rotation are not limited to Pivetta.

Vince Velasquez remains on the Disabled List after being drilled on the right arm by a nasty comebacker nearly two weeks ago. No official timetable for his return has been made public.

On Friday, Jim Salisbury with NBC Sports Philadelphia noted that Velasquez “is feeling good and will throw a bullpen session Saturday. If all goes well, he could pitch Wednesday in New York.”

In that same piece, Salisbury also reported an update on Jerad Eickhoff, who has been out all season to this point:

“Eickhoff has experienced on-again, off-again tingling in the fingers on his right hand when he throws. He experienced the sensation again while throwing to hitters in Clearwater and will return to Philadelphia to be checked by doctors…The tingling, which first presented itself late last season, has been limited to two fingers. The difference now is Eickhoff felt it while throwing his fastball. He had previously felt it throwing his curveball only.”

Ben Lively received five April starts, but was largely ineffective. He went 0-2 with a 6.85 ERA, allowing 34 hits over 23.2 innings pitched.

Fortunately for the Phillies, they have three reliable starting pitchers at the front of their rotation. Aaron Nola and Zach Eflin have been outstanding. Jake Arrieta has been up and down, but is a proven veteran with a Cy Young Award on his resume.

A look across the current 40-man roster does not reveal many attractive options should the club wish to make a change at the back of the rotation.

What do the Phillies have at the back of the rotation?

Zach Eflin hopes to be long term member of Phils rotation

The Philadelphia Phillies have been experiencing a number of problems over the past two months. Since April 25, the team has struggled along with a 20-24 record.

Fingers have mostly been pointed at an offense that is now 12th of the 15 National League clubs in both OPS and Runs scored.

There have also been numerous critics of the constant lineup and positional juggling by rookie manager Gabe Kapler, including from yours truly.

One area where the Phillies have generally received solid performances on a consistent basis has been the front of their starting pitching rotation.

Aaron Nola has broken out to legitimate ace status. He is currently 8-2 with a 2.27 ERA, a minuscule 0.934 WHIP, and a fantastic 90/22 K:BB ratio. He has yielded just 63 hits over 91 innings across 14 starts.

Having turned just 25 years old earlier this month and not eligible for free agency until after the 2021 season, Nola should be counted on as a key cog moving forward.

Veteran free agent signee Jake Arrieta has been less consistent than Nola, but has still been generally effective. Even after a poor outing last night, the 32-year old is 5-5 with a 3.33 ERA, and has allowed fewer hits than innings pitched. He'll be fine.

It is the back end of that Phillies starting rotation the brings the most open questions. Is Vince Velasquez actually a starting pitcher long term, and not better utilized out of the bullpen?

Are either or both of Nick Pivetta and Zach Eflin starting pitchers who can be counted on for the long term as the Phillies build toward true contention?

Velasquez, who came to the Phillies as part of the Ken Giles trade with Houston, is the most interesting. He clearly has dominating stuff at times, as he demonstrated in his most recent outing on Thursday afternoon when he surrendered just one hit to the Colorado Rockies over 6.2 innings.

But the problem with Velasquez, who turned 26 years of age earlier this month, has never been pure stuff. He has shown that kind of dominance before.

The problem is that the talented right-hander never carries it forward with any consistency, usually following up a great game or two with another three or four less-than-satisfactory efforts.

Pivetta, who arrived from Washington in a trade for Jonathan Papelbon, is a 25-year old right-hander. He is just 4-6 this season with a slightly elevated 4.25 ERA.

However, Pivetta also has a strong 81/21 K:BB mark, and has surrendered just 68 hits over 72 innings across 14 starts.

Pivetta cannot be a free agent until after the 2021 season, so the Phillies theoretically have a long time to measure his results and his future role.

At 24 years of age, Eflin is the youngest of this mostly young group. He came to the Phillies as part of the Jimmy Rollins deal a few years back.

This season, Eflin is 3-2 with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.185 WHIP, both solid marks. He has a 40/10 K:BB ratio, and has allowed 37 hits over 39.2 innings pitched.

Eflin had a horrendous three-start stretch from mid-late May. Across those starts he was ripped for a dozen earned runs and 19 hits in 13.1 innings, losing two of the three. But aside from that he has performed well.

The only other pitcher to make a start for the 2018 Phillies was Ben Lively. The right-hander is currently battling back from an injury. While Lively is a nice pitcher who competes well many nights, I believe that he is a depth starter best suited to AAA and emergency fill-in status on a contender.

Phillies will need another starting pitcher if they want to make playoffs

Aaron Nola has been a Phillies rotation bright spot in 2018

Last Friday night, the Phillies opened a weekend series with the visiting Atlanta Braves at Citizens Bank Park with a 7-3 victory.

That win, behind the pitching of Aaron Nola, lifted the Fightin' Phils record to 17-9 in the early going of the 2018 MLB regular season. It also moved them within a half-game of first place.

As has happened in a couple of recent seasons when the Phillies got off to a hot start, there was talk among some in the fan base of possible Wildcard playoff contention.

Maybe you were one of them last season, when a six-game winning streak lifted them to an 11-9 start in the early going. Or perhaps it was just two years ago, when the club sat at 24-17 and just that same half-game out of first place on May 19, 2016.

Alas, it was not to be for either of those Phillies teams. The 2016 club would win 71 games and finish in fourth place. Last year's bunch sank to 66 wins and a fifth place finish.

This time it seemed to be different. The Phils had opened up their wallets and signed a true Cy Young-winning ace in Jake Arrieta. They had brought in a proven veteran on-base machine in Carlos Santana to tutor and provide an example for the gaggle of talented young hitters who peppered their lineup.

Surely this year, there would be no similar collapse to the last two seasons. Surely this time around, the ball club would fight to contention all through the summer for new skipper Gabe Kapler.

But now after a week in which the Phillies dropped five of six games against division rivals Atlanta, Miami, and Washington, the club has dropped to just three games over the .500 mark. In three of those losses the starting pitchers, Vince Velasquez, Arrieta, and Nick Pivetta were each bombed by the opposition.

After nearly six weeks of the season, the starting pitching has to be a genuine concern. That is especially so if club management actually believes that they can contend for at least a Wildcard berth over the course of the coming summer.

Nola and Arrieta are generally providing the Phillies with good work. Arrieta has allowed 23 hits over 28.1 innings with a 20/10 K:BB ratio. He has solid 3.49 ERA and 1.16 WHIP marks, with slightly better ERA+ and FIP marks.

Nola appears to be elevating himself to true 'Ace' level this season. He is 4-1 with a 2.17 ERA and 0.920 WHIP, surrendering 31 hits over a staff-high 45.2 innings with a 35/11 K:BB ratio. His last four outings have each resulted in a Quality Start effort.

But behind those two, the starting pitching is becoming a true mess.

Velasquez continues to be an enigma, with fantastic stuff and unimpressive results, including a 5.70 ERA and WHIP of 1.467 to this point. While he has a strong 34/9 K:BB ratio over 30 innings pitched, the righty has also allowed 35 hits, including a staff-high five home runs.

After getting blown up by the Braves in his last start, he had this to say per MLB.com's Todd Zolecki:

"You're going to have one of these days and you shouldn't beat yourself up because it's just going to add up. I'll look back at some film and reflect back and go back to the actual first outings and maybe even reflect back to a couple years ago and how I was successful in a couple of games. This is the process of getting better and you utilize stuff like this to better you."

Problem is that his "one of these days" has become a regular occurrence. Just 16 of Velasquez' 45 starts with the Phillies over the last three seasons have been of the Quality Start variety. The argument that he would be more suited to a bullpen role is going to grow louder and louder if something major doesn't change quickly.

Phillies may need to step back with Vince Velasquez

Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Vince Velasquez described himself as “clueless” following yet another disappointing outing. 

The young righty took the loss as the Phils dropped a 6-3 decision to the cross-state rival Pittsburgh Pirates on Saturday afternoon.

Velasquez allowed five earned runs on seven hits over 5.1 innings against the Bucs. As is frequently the case, he started out fast, retiring eight of the first nine Pittsburgh batters that he faced.

With the Phillies leading 1-0, the Pirates finally got to Velasquez with two outs in the bottom of the third inning. A single and a walk put two men on, and then Andrew McCutchen delivered an RBI single to tie things up.

In the bottom of the fourth, the Pirates took the lead thanks to a leadoff home run off the bat of David Freese. That was still the score entering the bottom of the sixth inning, when Velasquez atypically unraveled.

With one out, a walk, a single, and a throwing error on catcher Cameron Rupp on a pick-off play left Pittsburgh runners at second and third. Francisco Cervelli then delivered a two-run single to push the Pirates lead out to a 4-1 margin.

That was the end of the Velasquez’ day, as he was relieved by Mark Leiter Jr, who didn’t help matters any. Leiter walked the first batter he faced, and then surrendered a two-out, two-run single to Adam Frazier to give the Pirates a 6-1 lead.

Two prospects who could improve the Phillies right now

Now almost seven weeks into the 2017 regular season, the Philadelphia Phillies are once again near the bottom of the NL East Division standings.

As the club looks to improve upon their position, there are varying opinions as to the readiness of the top minor league prospects.

I believe that two prospects now helping the AAA Lehigh Valley IronPigs succeed can help the big league Phillies improve right now.

Outfielder Roman Quinn just turned 24 years of age this past weekend. He was the Phillies second round selection in the 2011 MLB Amateur Draft out of Port St. Joe High School in Florida.

Quinn is a speed demon who projects as a prototypical leadoff man of the dynamic variety. Now in his sixth minor league season, Quinn has stolen 167 bases and scored 267 runs over 390 games played.

No one, and that includes both Cesar Hernandez and Odubel Herrera, the current Phillies top two baserunning threats, has the kind of game-changing speed that Quinn would bring to the lineup.

Philadelphia Phillies Spring 2017 top ten prospects

Rhys Hoskins slugs way onto the Phillies Spring 2017 Top 10 Prospects list

Back in November of 2016, I provided my Philadelphia Phillies Top 10 Prospects ranking. At that time, I broke down each player with an individual scouting report.

While my Fall prospect list is more detailed, in the Spring the ranking usually will provide a much simpler straight-up ranking list. However, I will add some general commentary if there are major updates.

First, let’s take a look back at the Phillies Top 10 Prospects from the Fall of 2016:

10. Scott Kingery

9.   Kevin Gowdy

8.  Cornelius Randolph

7.  Ben Lively

6.  Franklyn Kilome

5.  Nick Williams

4.  Roman Quinn

3.  Mickey Moniak

2.  J.P. Crawford

1.  Jorge Alfaro

I also provided a listing of “near misses”, naming several prospects who fell just outside of the top ten. That included a link to each of the individual Top 10 Prospects ranking pieces.

Day of Reckoning Draws Near for Placeholder Phillies

Time is running out for Rupp, Galvis and the current placeholder Phillies

As management and ownership of the Philadelphia Phillies moved through their own transition period over the last couple of seasons, the roster has also been turned over.

Gone now are the last vestiges of the first decade of play at Citizens Bank Park. Heck, a few of those individuals – Charlie Manuel, Pat Burrell, Jim Thome – have already been enshrined on the Phillies Wall of Fame.

As the front office and playing roster changes have taken place, a group of ballplayers has taken over on the field over the last few seasons. This core group was always meant to be placeholders, while the real, serious talent was developing in the minor leagues.

That core has consisted of infielders Cesar Hernandez and Freddy Galvis and catcher Cameron Rupp. I would also put 3B/OF Cody Asche, 1B/OF Darin Ruf, and outfielder Domonic Brown into the group.

Each of those players has been given an opportunity at one time or another to seize a starting role with the Phillies, to show that they can be a big league regular.

Only Hernandez has shown any consistent ability to successfully compete on both sides of the ball. Galvis has been strong defensively, but aside from some unexpected power has been an extremely inconsistent offensive performer. Rupp is inconsistent in every facet of the game.

This group began to really take over in the 2015 season. The Phillies bottomed out that year, finishing with the worst overall record in Major League Baseball.

A year ago, their 71 wins was an eight-game improvement. But that record was still two games worse than the disheartening 2013 and 2014 teams had finished.

Just one week ago today, the Phillies took an 11-9 record and a six-game winning streak out on the road to visit a pair of anticipated contending teams, the Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs.

After dropping six of the seven games at Dodger Stadium and Wrigley Field, the limitation of this group are becoming more and more apparent.

Phillies 2017: Rotation Depth a Strength, But There's No Ace

The Philadelphia Phillies have officially begun the six-week spring training process down in Clearwater, Florida. 

One of the likely areas of strength for this year’s version of the Fightin’ Phils would appear to be the starting pitching rotation.

A pair of veteran arms on short-term deals, a bulldog surprise, and a handful of talented youngsters give the club enviable depth on the mound. 

The numbers and talent potential are the most impressive to don red pinstripes in a number of years. However, the fact remains that the club still does not have a true ‘ace’ caliber starting pitcher.

There are some fans who say that a pitcher who takes the top spot in a given rotation is the ace of a staff. I believe that they are defining  the term improperly.

When Phillies fans want to think of a true ace, they don’t have to search very far back in their memory banks. Some of us can slip easily back to memories of Steve Carlton winning four Cy Young Awards. But the Phillies have had a number of true ace-caliber starting pitchers of very recent vintage.

As all but the very youngest fans will remember, the 2011 Phillies team set a franchise record by registering 102 regular season victories. Those wins were largely made possible by the club running four aces out of their rotation. We all remember “The Four Aces”: Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels.

None of the current Phillies rotation contenders has that kind of consistently excellent talent. Which is not to say that they aren’t good arms. Again, the rotation is likely to be a strength of this team.

Phillies Rebuild Now Largely Completed

The Philadelphia Phillies have suffered through five consecutive non-winning seasons. 

The last time that the club fielded a winner was with the franchise record 102 victories of the 2011 campaign.

Phillies leadership spent much of the last three years turning the final pages from the previous championship era. With the trade of Carlos Ruiz and the buyout of Ryan Howard‘s contract, those final pages have now been turned.

The club has traded veterans for prospect packages. There have been high draft picks resulting from the losing campaigns. These have combined to provide a vastly improved farm system.

Some of those highly ranked young acquisitions and prospects have begun to emerge in the big leagues already.

Phillies Fall 2016 Top Ten Prospects: #7 - Ben Lively

The Philadelphia Phillies have brought a number of young starting pitchers to the big leagues over the last two seasons who have a shot to become members of their rotation over the long term.

In 2015 it was Aaron Nola, Jerad Eickhoff, Adam Morgan, and Alec Asher getting their shots. Eickhoff has become perhaps the club’s most reliable starter. Nola has a world of talent, but is now battling injury concerns.

Asher and Morgan started slow a year ago. Morgan struggled even more mightily this season, but Asher righted his ship and put himself back into the long term conversation.

In 2016 the debut came for both Zach Eflin, now also battling back from injury, and for Jake Thompson, who held his own in a late season promotion.

At some point in the 2017 season, possibly right away depending upon the health of some of the other starting pitchers, right-hander Ben Lively should get his own shot.

Lively will turn 25-years old in early March down in Clearwater as he fights to impress the Phillies coaching staff and team management.

MLB Pipeline currently has him listed as the club’s #23 prospect. None of the major evaluation resources have him ranked as highly as I have him here. So why do I have Lively as my #7 Phillies prospect for the Fall of 2016?

Pharm Report: AA Reading Fightins

The Phillies ‘AA’ level minor league club, the Reading Fightin' Phils, have bolted out to a first place lead in the Eastern Division of the Eastern League.

The Fightin' Phils are 29-14, on a four game winning streak which has them 2.5 games up on the Hartford Yard Goats farm team of the Colorado Rockies organization.

This is the 50th anniversary of the Phillies relationship with the city of Reading, Pennsylvania, and the franchise is celebrating all year long with various events and giveaway items.

The timing couldn't be better for the fans pouring into FirstEnergy Stadium. The Fightin' Phils have a talented ball club with some exciting prospects.

Manager Dusty Wathan's squad just suffered a personnel loss, the type which minor league affiliate clubs are all too familiar with.

The Phillies top prospect, shortstop J.P. Crawford, began his season with Reading. Crawford was hitting .265 with a .398 on-base percentage, 23 runs scored, and five stolen bases when he was promoted over the weekend to the AAA Lehigh Valley IronPigs.

Remaining at Reading to lead the offense are a trio of interesting hitters, the best of whom is catcher Jorge Alfaro.

The soon-to-be 23-year old Alfaro got off to a torrid start, but then missed a few weeks early on with an oblique injury. Since returning a couple of weeks ago he has continued to rake.

Baseball America Preseason 2016 Top 30 Phillies Prospects

The Philadelphia Phillies farm system is universally considered to be greatly improved, which reflected in new rankings released by a respected source.

Baseball America’s annual Prospect Handbook is being delivered all across the country. I received my copy yesterday, and reading online of others receiving theirs today. 

It is considered the bible of prospect evaluation by many, ranking each Major League Baseball organization, as well as ranking and commenting on the top 30 prospects in those organizations.

It would not be a surprise for most fans of the Phillies to learn that our favorite ball club has not fared well in recent annual organizational rankings by Baseball America. 

Since ranking 11th prior to a 2011 season that saw the team finish with its best record in franchise history, the Phils have tumbled, finishing 27th, 23rd, 22nd, and 22nd again over the last four seasons.

Phillies 2016 Closer Options

With the trade of Ken Giles to Houston, the Philadelphia Phillies have a few options for the 2016 closer role.

Giles was always considered the heir apparent to Jonathan Papelbon, took over that role when the veteran was dealt to the Washington Nationals at the trade deadline this past season, and succeeded as most evaluators believed he would.

In fact, Giles was so impressive as both a setup man and in the closer role that he became easily the team’s most valuable remaining trade piece following the deals involving Papelbon and ace Cole Hamels.

Now that he is gone, the closer role would appear to be wide open. While that is likely to remain the case when the club reports to Clearwater for spring training, there is a clear frontrunner to fill the role.

Yesterday, on the same day that Giles talks were heating up and the deal being finalized, the Phils announced the signing of free agent David Hernandez to a one-year contract. 

That contract reportedly included incentives based on games finished. So it would appear that GM Matt Klentak was already thinking contingency plans with the Hernandez signing.

Ben Lively Pickup For Phillies

The Phillies continued their rebuilding program today, as a New Year’s Eve trade sent veteran outfielder Marlon Byrd to the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for young righthanded pitching prospect Ben Lively.

A deal involving Byrd heading to Cincy has been rumored for at least a week, but it was believed that talks between the two clubs had collapsed. This completed trade shows that was not exactly correct.

Byrd was the Phils 10th Round selection in the 1999 MLB Draft. He broke into the big leagues in 2002, and played in parts of four seasons for the club into 2005. In May of that year, Byrd was dealt to the Washington Nationals for Endy Chavez. 

Including the Nats, Byrd would play for six teams over the next nine seasons. Then last November the Phillies signed Byrd as a free agent, bringing the 36-year old back in hopes that he could help squeeze one last-gasp postseason appearance out of an aging core.

The 22-year old Lively was the Reds 4th Round selection in the 2013 MLB Draft out of the University of Central Florida.