10 Contenders at the Winter Meetings

Aces Scherzer, Lester, Shields hold key to the FA market

As the Winter Meetings got underway yesterday, all of MLB's major contenders are looking to shore up weaknesses on their rosters.

A number of those contenders have a hole, or at least a weakness, at the hot corner. This should make the only real free agent 3rd baseman of any note, Chase Headley, a very popular and ultimately wealthy man.

There are a number of teams who either were on the borderline, or who actually lost, in 2014 who could jump right up into contention with the right moves. However, most of them need multiple moves still to get there.

The Chicago White Sox have decided that they want to be one of those bounce-back clubs. The Chisox first executed a deal to bring in a strong #2 starting pitcher, Jeff Samardzija, to pair with ace Chris Sale. Then the club signed the top closer on the market, David Robertson.

Much of the rest of the market, both free agent and major trade, is waiting on the decisions of the top three starting pitchers. Once Jon Lester, Max Scherzer, and James Shields make their decisions, it should open the floodgates for the 2nd tier guys, as well as get trade talks heating up for available frontline types like Cole Hamels.

Here's a look at 10 teams who clearly enter 2015 as contenders right now, 5 in each league, and their more obvious needs, along with some potential fixes that could happen at the Winter Meetings or shortly thereafter.

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Washington Nationals
Team clearly needs an infielder, just where is the question? Anthony Rendon was exceptional at both 2nd and 3rd base. With Ryan Zimmerman now locked in at 1st base, they need to find someone to play one or the other, and find a permanent home for Rendon. Resigning Asdrubal Cabrera is the most logical move. But wouldn't Chase Headley look great in a Nats uniform?

Los Angeles Dodgers
Do they really believe they have any semblance of a competitive left-side infield? Do they really believe they have a front-line catcher? I don't, on either count. There has been a lot of talk about Cole Hamels in the media, and great starting pitching can cover a lot of sins. They have an outfield glut to trade from, with Matt Kemp the most likely to go. That still would leave Puig, Ethier, and Crawford with young Joc Pederson ready to play every day. If I'm LA, I'm looking to fill that left-side infield. How about Jimmy Rollins, maybe in a Hamels package? If not, you have the lesser but younger Stephen Drew, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Jed Lowrie troika available.

Saint Louis Cardinals
This looks like a serious NL Pennant contender to me, but for one thing: I'm really concerned about the ability of the rotation to physically hold up. Something tells me they'll stand pat. But if I were them, I'd reach out and sign one of the free agent SP arms. A proven reliability guy like James Shields would seem to be a perfect Cardinal fit, from where I sit.

San Francisco Giants
The defending World Series champs would love to take a run at ending their every-other-year streak, rather than fall back in 2015. They are finalists in the Jon Lester sweepstakes, which should be announced some time today or tonight. That pursuit aside, they have a gaping hole at 3rd base with the Panda gone. This should be yet another team looking hard at Chase Headley.

Chase Headley might be the perfect Panda replacement

Pittsburgh Pirates
A very interesting team that has been very quiet so far this off-season. Two straight Wildcard appearances for the Bucs have them hungry for more. How hungry? Are they willing and able to spend money? Because if they want to take a next step, maybe even get back at all, they need another starting pitcher, even after bringing A.J. Burnett back, and could use a shortstop upgrade. The shortstop is available on the market in Stephen Drew, Jed Lowrie, or Asdrubal Cabrera. So are the arms, with possibly affordable options like Jake Peavy, Ryan Vogelsong, Justin Masterson and Brandon McCarthy. This is a place that James Shields or Ervin Santana would work well. They could always resign Francisco Liriano. Even a lesser guy like Kyle Kendrick could provide valuable, experienced innings. They need something more, for sure.

Baltimore Orioles
Buck Showalter is good, and in 2014 he was great. But he's not good enough to make this team win again without addressing the losses of Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis. Let's say all three of Chris Davis, Matt Wieters, and Manny Machado returns healthy and has a strong season. That's asking a lot, but with Adam Jones and J.J. Hardy as well, it's the minimum needed. How about Michael Morse as a LF/DH in Camden Yards? Seems like a match made in O's heaven to me. This might be a good fit for a veteran who wants to win and can bring some speed, such as Emilio Bonifacio.

Detroit Tigers
Having VMart back and a fully healthy Miguel Cabrera will be huge. But this team needs another run-producer. They could really use it from a corner IF/OF type, even if J.D. Martinez is for real and Nick Castellanos takes a step forward. Melky Cabrera and Alex Rios might be nice fits in Motown. And since this team is in win-now mode, a one-year shot on a 5th outfielder season from Ichiro Suzuki could be a nice Torii Hunter substitute.

Kansas City Royals
A lot came together all at once for the Royals last season. Now Hosmer and Moustakas have to prove they can do it over a full season. There has been talk of breaking up the shutdown Herrera-Davis-Holland back end bullpen trio. Especially with the loss of starter James Shields, that sounds like crazy talk to me. This team needs to find a similar starting pitcher, and all the names mentioned for the Pirates come to mind, especially Jake Peavy. He's a winner and a staff leader-type. And how about a Colby Rasmus in CF, allowing Lorenzo Cain to possibly become an All-Star rightfielder playing every day there?

Jake Peavy could fit well as a James Shields replacement in KC

LA Angels of Anaheim
Los Angeles, Anaheim, whatever they are, is a very good team. But like a few other very good teams, they have big questions in the rotation, especially if they actually do move C.J. Wilson. A lefty DH/IF/PH bat with experience and pop would be a nice addition. Someone like Kendrys Morales fits the bill perfectly. Emilio Bonifacio checks off a few boxes as well as a versatile switch-hitter. And bottom-feeding one of the lesser expense but reliable SP options would be a good idea, someone in the Kyle Kendrick or Ryan Vogelsong price range.

Toronto Blue Jays
This team has to be taken seriously now. Picking up one of the top players in the game at a position of growing scarcity in 3rd baseman Josh Donaldson, as well as a proven, veteran leader at catcher in Russ Martin, will do that for you. They join a lineup that already included Jose Bautista, Jose Reyes, Edwin Encarnacion. Do you entrust this obvious run at the postseason to the current group of 2nd basemen? How about Stephen Drew to play there, and give you an option should Reyes' legs act up again? And this team looks like a perfect landing spot for a proven closer like Rafael Soriano, if he can be had at the right price. Asdrubal Cabrera could provide excellent versatility, and Emilio Bonifacio could fit here for all these same reasons.

NLCS: Cardinals over Giants

Managers Bruce Bochy & Mike Matheny meet again in NLCS

For the last four years, either the Saint Louis Cardinals (2011, 2013) or the San Francisco Giants (2010, 2012) have won the National League pennant.

The Giants in both their winning years, and the Cards in 2011, would ultimately also win the World series.

During these last four years in which the two franchise' have dominated the NL postseason, they met just once. The Giants edged out the Cardinals in 7 games in the 2012 NLCS, rallying after falling behind 3-1 in games.

The two clubs took different paths to this 2014 rematch. The Cards again won the NL Central Division crown for the 2nd straight season, and for the 8th time in the last 15 years. The Giants got in as an NL Wildcard team after finishing 6 games behind the LA Dodgers in the NL West race.

Despite their different methods of reaching the NLCS, both are here again, and that can likely be attributed to their previous recent playoff experience. Both of these teams, their managers, and many of the individual players are used to competing in the increased glare and under the added pressure of October baseball.

The teams met twice during the regular season. Back at the end of May, the Giants took 3 of 4 at Busch Stadium. Then at the very beginning of July, the Cards travelled to AT&T Park and took 2 of 3. So the GMen owned a 4-3 edge in the regular season series. It's my pick here that this series will be decided by that same margin, just as their 2012 NLCS. But this time, Saint Louis comes out on top.

The Cardinals finished as the 3rd best team in the National League, and at #9 overall, in the final Power Ranking back at the beginning of October. The Giants meanwhile finished just 17th overall in MLB. The belief here is that the holes causing San Fran to finish that low will ultimately prove the difference between these battled-tested squads.

Cards' ace Adam Wainwright is one of the best pitchers in baseball today

The difference makers between the teams are team pitching and defense. While the Cards were the 5th-ranked team in all of baseball in the Fangraphs WAR team defensive rankings, the GMen finished just 16th. Now especially missing injured outfielder Angel Pagan, the Giants lineup is even more challenged.

On the mound, the Cards staff rated out at #18, not an impressive finish at all. However, the Giants at #28 had some of MLB's worst-performing overall pitching. Saint Louis should be able to parlay those pitching and defensive edges to a victory in the series.

As for the offense, the Giants 6th-rated offense gives them the old "puncher's chance" against a Cardinals offensive group that finished as MLB's 11th-rated WAR group. But again, injuries have weakened San Fran on offense as well. Not just the loss of Pagan, but an oblique strain has made slugger Mike Morse' ability to contribute questionable at best, sapping the Giants of some clout.

Historically, these are two of the most storied, successful teams in all of Major League Baseball, and in the National League in particular. The Cardinals have won 19 NL Pennants and 11 World Series crowns, most in NL history and 2nd only to the Yankees overall. The Giants have won 22 NL Pennants, a league record, and 7 World Series crowns.

There is star power to be had here, with the Giants led by the hitting trio of Buster Posey, Pablo Sandoval, and Hunter Pence, and the Cardinals hitters by Matt Holliday, Yadier Molina, and Matt Carpenter.

"The Big Panda", Pablo Sandoval, is a proven postseason clutch performer

On the mound, the Giants rotation has a true young ace in lefty Madison Bumgarner, and they also rely on unflappable veterans Jake Peavy and Tim Hudson. Yusmeiro Petit has developed into a reliable option as well. For the Cards, it's righty Adam Wainwright as the ace, with Lance Lynn a solid #2, Carlos Martinez emerging as a strong 3rd option, and either John Lackey or Shelby Miller also likely to see work.

The bullpens of both clubs can be schizophrenic, with the Giants having changed from Sergio Romo to Santiago Casilla in the closer role, and with Cards closer Trevor Rosenthal alternating between dominant and erratic. The Cards have a tremendous arm in Pat Neshek in reserve. He may be the best reliever on either team. Both clubs have an assortment of options that run hot and cold.

The best chance for the Giants would be for Bumgarner, Peavy, and Hudson to all be at their best through the series, giving their veteran bats a chance to win it with clutch hits. For the Cards, it should be simply about playing to their full potential as an overall team.

Posey (L) and Molina (R) may be two best catchers in baseball today

Perhaps the biggest highlight of this series will be the showdown between two of the best all-around catchers in the game. Posey led the Giants to titles when he was the NL Rookie of the Year in 2010 and the NL MVP in 2012. Molina, widely considered the best defensive catcher in the game, is a 6-time Gold Glover and All-Star.

The Cardinals will have the home field advantage here. While I don't think that is necessarily a very big factor in the playoffs, I do think that in the end it will be those Saint Louis fans at Busch Stadium who are witnessing their team in a victorious pileup after a win in that ultimate Game 7 next weekend.