Boston Red Sox add former Phillies first baseman Tommy Joseph

Embed from Getty Images

Back from Korea, Tommy Joseph signs with Bosox

The Boston Red Sox have announced the signing of Tommy Joseph, the Phillies former first baseman. Joseph had played in Korea earlier this season with little success before receiving his release.

Joseph, who turned 28-years-old just three weeks ago, was a second round draft pick of the San Francisco Giants back in 2009 out of high school in his native Arizona.

At the July 2012 trade deadline, Joseph was sent to the Phillies along with pitching prospect Seth Rosin and outfielder Nate Schierholtz in exchange for outfielder Hunter Pence.

From a Phillies perspective, Joseph was the centerpiece of that deal. A catcher at the time of the trade, he never developed in the way they hoped.

Joseph finally reached Philadelphia in May 2016 as a first baseman. For most of that season as well as the 2017 campaign, he was the Phillies starter at the position. He appeared in 227 games at first base and another pair as a Designated Hitter.

After slashing just .247/.297/.460 with 43 home runs, 86 extra-base hits, and 116 RBIs, Joseph lost his playing time in September 2017 to Rhys Hoskins. When the Phillies signed Carlos Santana as a free agent that December, the writing was on the wall. Joseph was released during spring training of 2018.

The Texas Rangers picked him up off waivers, and Joseph spent last season split between the Double-A and Triple-A levels in the Texas farm system.

Hunter Pence, Ian Happ would be perfect fits for Phillies bench at trade deadline

Embed from Getty Images

Hunter Pence has refreshed his career at home in Texas

The majority of chatter and rumor involving the Philadelphia Phillies as the 2019 trade deadline approaches has revolved around pitching, and for good reason. The Phillies are probably going to need to find a pair of new starting pitchers in order to remain in contention for a postseason spot this year, and that remains the case after the signing of lefty Drew Smyly.

However, there is no doubt that the club could also use better options coming off their bench. There are a pair of hitters rumored to be available who could help bolster those bench options for manager Gabe Kapler.

One of those is a name and face familiar to many Phillies fans, corner outfielder Hunter Pence. After completely reworking his swing and rededicating himself to a new training regimen, Pence stunned many across baseball by emerging as an AL All-Star this season at age 36.

Pence, who plays for the Texas Rangers, is now the subject of a new documentary “The Pence Method“, which will air for the first time tonight (Saturday) on FS1 at 9;00 PM.

Jeff Wilson for the Fort Worth Star-Telegram interviewed Pence recently, and quoted him on how it felt to know that teams were interested once they learned of the changes he was making.

“There was a lot of doubt. I lost my job. I wasn’t playing every day, and it hits your confidence. I wasn’t necessarily doing great right away. It took a lot of failing to really learn the swing change. When you’re going through that process, and when I heard that at the winter meetings at lot of general managers were interested, it was tears of joy. I felt super grateful and honored. It was like a light at the end of the tunnel.”

Pence, who has earned more than $120 million over a 12-year big-league career which included a stop in Philadelphia from July 2011 through July 2012, would eventually accept a $2 million dollar, one-year deal with the Rangers. He has far outperformed that contract.

Over 58 games and 228 plate appearances, Pence is slashing .291/.351/.587 with 15  home runs, 30 extra-base hits, 48 RBIs and 45 runs scored. He has an outstanding .938 OPS, and while used mostly as a DH (30 games), Pence has also played 16 games in left field and five in right.

MLB 2019 Power Rankings: Astros, Dodgers remain at the top of each league as July opens

Embed from Getty Images

Texas Rangers have been a surprise AL contender in 2019

This is a Philadelphia Phillies site, and so the team’s place on my MLB Power Rankings always needs to be highlighted. When I debuted the 2019 rankings on June 1, there were fans upset that the first-place club was in the #15 slot.

By the June 15 rankings, the Phillies had moved up a spot to #14, although by then the team had dropped to second place. Still, I heard complaints from fans who believed the club should be ranked higher.

Maybe now they can admit that the rankings were on to something? The Phillies have now slipped to the #18 spot. They have the 12th-best record in MLB overall, and are buoyed by their defense, tied for 8th in the game. But their hitting attack has been mediocre (15th) and they are seriously weighted down by a pitching staff rated just 25th in baseball.

Fans are allowed to be unrealistic about their team based on pure emotion. My own personal feelings have nothing to do with the MLB Power Rankings published here at Phillies Nation. Instead, it’s all about each team’s actual results and statistical performances.

There is never any subjectivity on my part. I take key statistics and rank each of the 30 teams in Major League baseball on their ability to actually win ball games as well as their performance on offense, on the pitching mound, and in the field.

The MLB Power Rankings will be updated here at Phillies Nation on the 1st and 15th of the month for the remainder of the regular season using the following methodology.

RANKINGS METHODOLOGY

Introduced and then upgraded during the course of last season, my formula for compiling the rankings received another tweak to begin this year. By the end of 2018, I was researching each of the 30 MLB teams current position in the four categories of winning percentage, runs scored, pitching OPS, and fielding percentage.

This year, runs-per-game has replaced that simple “runs scored” category in order to get the offensive component. I then assign each of those component category team rankings a 1-30 value and simply add those values up to determine an overall final ratings score. Where there was a tie, it is broken by win-loss percentage, then by runs-per-game, followed by pitching OPS.

2019 JULY 1 –  MLB RANKINGS

The Houston Astros repeat at the top of the Power Rankings. But the top four teams remain the same, just with a slight juggling of the order.

The hot risers are the Washington Nationals, who have shot up 11 places since June 1. In the American League, the Texas Rangers are up again, this time from 11 to 8 after going from 16 to 11 in the June 15 rankings. And the Oakland A’s burst up from 12 to 5 this time around.

The Flyin' Hawaiian returns to the Philadelphia Phillies

Embed from Getty Images

Shane Victorino will help out the Phillies at 2019 spring training

Six and a half years have passed since the last time ‘The Flyin’ Hawaiian’ pulled on the uniform of the Philadelphia Phillies on July 29, 2012 at Turner Field in Atlanta.

The aging Phillies dropped a 6-2 decision to their NL East Division rivals that afternoon. The defeat left them 12.5 games behind the second-place Braves and 16.5 off the pace being set by the first-place Washington Nationals.

The late Roy Halladay had taken the mound for the start that day. He would strikeout seven and walk just one over six innings and leave with the Phillies trailing by just 3-2 before the bullpen surrendered three in the 7th inning to break the game open.

The first five batters in the Phillies lineup that day were familiar to fans: Jimmy Rollins, Victorino, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Carlos Ruiz. But all were between 31-33 years of age, beginning to push past their glorious prime years together.

Two days later, Victorino was one of the first to go in what would become a major rebuilding program that would last for more than a half-decade. He was dealt on July 31 to the Los Angeles Dodgers for pitchers Josh Lindblom and Ethan Martin, as well as a player-to-be-named who turned out to be in infield prospect named Stefan Jarrin.

On that same day, Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr dealt away another starting outfielder, Hunter Pence, signalling a surrender of his team for the season. The club would actually heat up, pulling within three games of the second NL Wildcard with 11 to play. But that was as close as they would get.

Victorino became the left fielder for the Dodgers, stealing 15 bases over the final third of the season for a club that finished in second place in the NL West, two games off that final Wildcard pace and just five ahead of the 81-81 Phillies.

Important off-season dates for the Phillies and Major League Baseball

Rob Manfred leads MLB into a big off-season

It has finally arrived, one of the most anticipated Major League Baseball off-season periods in years. Fans of the Philadelphia Phillies have been led to believe that the team will be a major player in the free agent market during this ‘Hot Stove’ season.

As of 9:00 a.m. EDT on Monday morning the contracts expired for dozens of players. They are now free to negotiate for deals covering 2019 and beyond. Their former team has exclusive negotiating rights for the first five days. After that, it’s on to the open market.

The list of available names at this point includes Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Josh Donaldson, Craig Kimbrel, Michael Brantley, Patrick Corbin, Andrew McCutchen, Dallas Keuchel, and World Series MVP Steve Pearce among dozens of others.

The list of big names could increase by midnight on Halloween, as star pitchers Clayton Kershaw and David Price have until that point to decide whether or not to exercise player options on their contracts. If either or both turns down the option, they would also join the free agent ranks.

A number of players who appeared with the Phillies during the last few years are also available as free agents. That list includes Freddy Galvis, Wilson Ramos, Asdrubal Cabrera, Clay Buchholz, Charlie Morton, and Jake Diekman.

Other names available on the market and very familiar to Phillies fans from their time with the team include outfielder Hunter Pence, starting pitcher J.A. Happ, and reliever Ryan Madson. The latter two own World Series rings from the Phillies 2008 championship team.

Here is an exhaustive list of the important dates to look for as we move through the MLB off-season and into the start of the 2019 season:

OCTOBER 31: Halloween. Okay, okay. Besides candy, the majority of contract options must be exercised by teams or players for the following season. Already picked up were team options on players such as Madison Bumgarner and Carlos Carrasco. Shortstop Elvis Andrus exercised his player option. The big name here is Clayton Kershaw with the Dodgers. He has until the clock strikes midnight after the trick-or-treaters are tucked in bed to make his decision.

NOVEMBER 2: This is the deadline by which MLB teams must tender a qualifying offer (click link for detailed explanation) to eligible free agents. The one-year offer this season would be for $17.9 million. For example, the Nationals could make a qualifying offer to Harper. He could accept and play with them next year on a contract worth $17.9, or decline and become a free agent. If a qualifying offer is made, players have 10 days maximum to make their decision. However, players acquired in mid-season deals cannot have such an offer made. Therefor, the Dodgers cannot make a qualifying offer to Machado. He is automatically headed to free agency.

Phillies are expected to be major players in the bidding for free agent Harper.

NOVEMBER 3: The date on which the full and open free agency period will begin. This would, for instance, be the earliest that the Phillies could formally negotiate with Harper or Machado. It is also the earliest that free agents can sign with a new team, though you won’t see that happen in most instances since the player would need to negotiate a contract first. That would likely happen after entertaining multiple offers.

NOVEMBER 4: Rawlings and Major League Baseball will announce the winners of the 2018 Gold Glove Awards.

NOVEMBER 5: Finalists will be announced by MLB for each of the major awards, including the Most Valuable Player in each league, the Cy Young Award, the Rookie of the Year, and Manager of the Year. Also, the MLB Executive of the Year will be announced on this date.

NOVEMBER 6-8: GM meetings held in Carlsbad, California. Big deals don’t usually happen here, but the groundwork is often laid for those consummated later, including at the later Winter Meetings.

Giants Must Strike Now, While Window Still Open

The San Francisco Giants have been consistent contenders in the National League West Division for much of the last eight years, but the club’s window of opportunity may now be closing.

It’s always a difficult decision when a club such as the Giants begins to hit a crossroads. How do you continue to win while restocking your big league team and your farm system with quality young players?

Few teams are able to pull off the feat well. Most who undertake the attempt have failed for a couple of seasons before realizing they simply have to cash in as many of their aging, higher priced veterans as possible in exchange for that younger talent.

The Giants have reached that crossroads. Their decisions are especially difficult because they do remain legitimate contenders who have division rivals with significant weaknesses. The window of opportunity to contend remains open, but general manager Bobby Evans needs to be aggressive this offseason.

Phillies Promote Tommy Joseph

Just hours before the July 31st trade deadline back in 2012, the struggling Phillies had come to the realization that they were not going to continue a glorious run of five consecutive NL East crowns.

With that having become obvious, the team dealt away outfielder Hunter Pence to the San Francisco Giants for a three-player package.

Pence would go on to become a key player for the Giants in winning a pair of World Series crowns that season and again in 2014. The package that the Phils received in return, on the other hand, was a major disappointment.

That package included veteran outfielder Nate Schierholtz, who would finish out the season in Philly and then leave for a free agent deal with the Chicago Cubs in the off-season. 

It also included right-handed pitcher Seth Rosin, who would be shelled for five runs on seven hits over just two innings in his only Phillies appearance last season.

The third player in that deal was seen as the real key from the Phillies perspective. That player was a 20-year old catcher by the name of Tommy Joseph. 

The Giants' 2nd round choice in the 2009 MLB Amateur Draft out of high school in Arizona, Joseph banged 38 homers and drove in 163 runs over his first two minor league seasons.

But the Giants had 25-year old Buster Posey at catcher in the midst of what would be an NL MVP season. They saw Pence as a missing piece to their championship puzzle as they tried to hold off the rival Los Angeles Dodgers, who had just obtained Shane Victorino in a deal with the Phillies.

The deal was made, Pence helped the Giants to the title, and Joseph moved to AA Reading, where he hit for a .250/.327/.420 slash line with three homers and 10 RBI over his final 114 plate appearances of the 2012 minor league season.

Joseph would then begin to break down due to injuries, most especially a series of concussions that would ultimately cause the Phillies to remove him permanently from behind the plate. 

A catcher by trade and by heart, Joseph did not like the move to 1st base. But it was his only chance at reaching his goal of a big league career.

To his credit, Joseph bore down and responded. After the Phils had removed him from the 40-man roster this off-season, they invited him to spring training. Joseph came in and tore the cover off the ball, suddenly re-establishing himself as a prospect.

That hot hitting continued into the AAA season at Lehigh Valley, where he was hitting to a .347/.370/.611 slash line with six homers and 17 RBI over his first 100 plate appearances.

Meanwhile in Philadelphia, the Phillies were off to a surprising start that has left the team with a 20-15 record after almost six full weeks of the season. 

The club will now play 19 of their next 25 games at home, and thanks in part to his hot start, Joseph will be a part of that homestand. The Phillies have promoted him in time for tonight's weekend opener against the Cincinnati Reds.

Another key part to the Joseph promotion has been the continued disappointment from Darin Ruf. After another strikeout in a key spot last night, Ruf is hitting for just a .158/.206/.193 slash line with no homers and just three RBI. He has also struck out 19 times in 63 plate appearances.

Joseph will simply slot into the Ruf role, starting at 1st base against lefty pitchers, and pinch-hitting against lefty relievers when he doesn't get the start. 

That is likely to remain the case as long as Ryan Howard remains in Phillies pinstripes, which is likely no more than another two months.

It's good to see one of the young players that we've all been hearing about in the minor leagues receive his chance. 

Joseph is the first, but certainly not the last, and not nearly the most talented, of a parade of young bats and arms that Phillies fans can expect to see arrive in South Philly over the next few months.

Giants Continue to Confound Me

Hunter Pence and Giants crush Royals in Series opener

I have nothing against the San Francisco Giants. I just don't think they are as good as they have been playing this month. I may be wrong.

The Giants continue to confound me with their high level of play, and last night's opening game of the 2014 World Series continued that streak.

San Francisco crushed the previously postseason unbeaten Kansas City Royals, on the road, with the Royals top starting pitcher on the mound. They did it the way that they've been doing much of their winning this October.

The Giants basic formula in their best games is to have ace Madison Bumgarner pitch a gem, shut the opposition down, and allow the clutch bats of Buster Posey, Pablo Sandoval, and Hunter Pence to come through with enough offense at some point to win the game. That is exactly what happened last night.

Bumgarner was fabulous. He went 7 innings, allowing just 3 hits, striking out 5, walking just one, and yielding just a single run. That run came via a 7th inning homer by Salvador Perez, my pick at the start to win World Series MVP honors. The Giants ace threw 106 pitches, 71 for strikes.

Meanwhile, the Posey-Panda-Pence combination all struck first inning blows, with the capper being a blast by Pence to dead centerfield. His homerun put San Fran up 3-0 on Shields, who struggled the entire game.

The Royals ace, nicknamed "Big Game James" during his time with Tampa Bay, was acquired by KC to push their young team to the next level. Mission accomplished. But he was also acquired, once there, to deliver in these biggest of games. So far this October, that has not been the case. Just 40 of his 71 pitches went for strikes, and he was gone after 3 innings.

Shields did not pitch the big game that the Royals needed

If there was one saving grace for the Royals, it was that they didn't burn out their starter or their vaunted bullpen in this one. Shields 71 pitches will easily allow him to return for a rematch with Bumgarner in a Game 5, should the Series last that long. Manager Ned Yost used 3 relievers, but none of Danny Duffy, Tim Collins, or Jason Frasor are among the group that have made a real difference in the Royals success.

As I've stated a few times already in evaluating them, the Giants did not fare well in my final regular season Power Ranking. They finished just 17 of 30 MLB teams despite reaching the playoffs as a Wildcard. The PR doesn't factor a team's record. It is purely a reflection of their statistical performance in the areas of Hitting, Pitching, and Defense. The GMen were rated so low because, at least during the season, their defense was mediocre and their pitching often poor.

I did pick them to beat an overrated Pittsburgh team in that one-off Wildcard game. But since then, I had them losing in the NLDS to an all-around superior Washington Nationals squad, in the NLCS to a slightly better LA Dodgers team, and here in the World Series to a hot Royals squad .

What has happened is, the Giants have drawn on the experience of having won in October in both 2010 and 2012 to produce more consistently than any of their opponents in the increased pressure of playoff baseball. It is clear that, once a team reaches October and starts to get on a roll, you can toss the regular season statistics out the window.

Experience and momentum are clearly at work this Fall for the San Francisco Giants. The Royals are a very talented ballclub. They can still recover and win this thing. But if those two factors stay intact for the Giants for just a few more days, KC's talent won't matter a lick.

For the Royals to recover from the Game One debacle, they need to quickly develop some tough skin of their own. There is no magic button to push in order to make that happen. Someone, probably at least a couple of players, need to step up and make it happen. Someone needs to lead the Royals in voice, and more importantly, in deed. If not, the Giants will continue to confound me, all the way to their 3rd World Series title in 5 seasons.

World Series 2014: These Wildcards Are No Jokers

Greg Holland and the KC bullpen should emerge victorious

A year ago when I made my prediction of the Boston Red Sox defeating the Saint Louis Cardinals in the 2013 World Series, it wasn't a difficult prediction to make.

Despite the fact that the 2013 Series featured the best teams by record in both the NL and AL for the first time in 14 years, I felt that Boston was clearly the better team. This time around, I found it much more difficult.

In 2014, we don't have the best regular season teams involved in the World Series from either league. Not only that, but we also don't have a division winner. Both the Kansas City Royals, who finished a game behind the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central, and San Francisco Giants, who finished 6 back of the LA Dodgers in the NL West, were Wildcard teams.

This marks just the 2nd time since the concept was introduced for the 1995 season that two Wildcard teams will faceoff in the World Series. In the only other such meeting, the then-Anaheim Angels defeated the San Francisco Giants in a dramatic 7-game series in 2002.

It's my call here that these current San Francisco Giants will again fall short in the Fall Classic to their AL Wildcard counterparts. I am going to call it Kansas City in 6 games.

The Giants have overcome more than the Royals to get this far. Back at the beginning of October, in the final 2014 MLB Power Ranking, San Fran was ranked just 17th of the 30 teams in baseball. Poor pitching and mediocre defense were the main reasons.

But that was the regular season, and frankly, that matters little right now. The Giants are a battle-tested group that has a number of key players still around who won the World Series in both 2010 and 2012. In the increased pressure of the postseason, winning experience can make a difference.

The case for the Giants begins with their bats. Buster Posey at catcher is one of the best and most valuable players in the game today. He is joined by 3rd baseman Pablo 'Kung Fu Panda' Sandoval and right fielder Hunter Pence in a dynamic, clutch middle-of-the-order.

Posey, Pence, and Panda pace the Giants offense

While those three are the engine that drives the Giants offense, the club must get production from supporting players if they want to win this series. In Mike Morse, they will have a true DH-type option when the series opens in KC. Guys like Gregor Blanco, Joe Panik, Brandon Belt, Brandon Hicks, and NLCS walkoff hero Travis Ishikawa are going to have to step up.

On the mound, Madison Bumgarner will start Game 1, and he is a true legit shutdown ace. He has the ability to win at least two games all by himself. Behind him, the Giants must continue to receive fountain-of-youth performances from veterans Jake Peavy and Tim Hudson. Ryan Vogelsong, likely in his last hurrah with the team, will start Game 4.

The Giants bullpen has been coming through in the postseason where it was a bit inconsistent in the regular season. Starters Yusmeiro Petit and Tim Lincecum lengthen that pen now, and the back end will feature the combination of Sergio Romo, Santiago Casilla, Jean Machi, Jeremy Affeldt, Javier Lopez, and J.C. Guiterrez.

Trout's July All-Star MVP performance gave Royals home field 

Meanwhile, the Royals will have home field advantage thanks to Mike Trout. Back in July, Trout was the MVP of the All-Star Game, leading the American League to a 5-3 victory and giving it's representative the home field. So baseball's best player has had an effect on the World Series without even playing in it.

They Royals have hitting, but let's face it, talk about their dominance begins with their pitching, defense, and speed. Kansas City finished at the very top of the final MLB Power Ranking thanks to the game's #5 pitching staff, and with the top defense in all of baseball by a wide margin. That defense has been electric so far in the postseason.

On the pitching front, the bullpen back-end of closer Greg Holland setup by Wade Davis and Kelvin Herrera has been as impenetrable as the "Massey pre-nup", and been just as intolerably cruel to opposing hitters in the postseason as they were in the regular season. These guys just don't allow anything, meaning you had best do something with the Royals starting pitchers if you want to beat them.

Those starters are no slouches themselves. It all starts with lead man "Big Game" James Shields. While he has been a bit up and down this postseason, he has the experience and repertoire to match Bumgarner pitch-for-pitch, at least for the 6 innings that he needs to last. Yordano Ventura is a power option in the #2 spot, while both Jason Vargas and Jeremy Guthrie are reliable workmanlike 3-4 starters.

On offense, the Royals have emerging star Lorenzo Cain in the outfield, an All-Star catcher of their own in Salvador Perez, and a quartet of organizational veterans in leftfielder Alex Gordon, DH Billy Butler, 1B Eric Hosmer, and 3B Mike Moustakas. They also have solid contributors in Omar Infante, Nori Aoki and Alcides Escobar. Perez is a star in-the-making, and my choice to emerge as the World Series MVP.

Catcher Salvador Perez: my choice to emerge as MVP

Perhaps the most interesting decision for manager Ned Yost will come right up front. Does he continue to carry the blazing speed of Terrance Gore, perfect for an AL series but limited for 3 possible NL-city games, or does he turn to veteran Raul Ibanez off his bench?

That managerial matchup again appears on paper to be a significant advantage for the Giants, who have the highly respected, 2-time World Series-winning skipper Bruce Bochy calling the shots. Some of Yost's calls this postseason have been so unorthodox that he has received extreme criticism. Unfortunately for all his critics, his way has resulted in a World Series appearance.

Ned Yost continues to confound his critics, every single one of whom I trust will talk about how Kansas City won despite, not because of, the decisions made by their manager. Their defense remains air-tight, their bullpen remains impenetrable, and their offense and starting pitching remain competitive. The Kansas City Royals give their fans a treat, winning at home in the 6th game.

Post-Trade Phillies Ain't Done Yet

At the 2012 MLB trade deadline on Tuesday, Phillies GM Ruben Amaro made a handful of decisions that signal two things: first, the Fightin' Phils lineup needed to change and, second, the team was not at all interested in a complete rebuild from scratch. The GM did two things, didn't do a couple others, and effectively put a couple others on the back burner with the chance that something could still be done there.

The first thing that Amaro did was to deal away long time centerfielder Shane Victorino to the Los Angeles Dodgers in exchange for effective right-handed relief pitcher Josh Lindblom and high-ceiling righty pitching prospect Ethan Martin.

Next, Amaro decided to deal away rightfielder Hunter Pence to the San Francisco Giants in exchange for a package that included rightfielder Nate Schierholtz, top catching prospect Tommy Joseph, and young pitching prospect Seth Rosin.

Decisions that Amaro apparently made involving not dealing away players included pitcher Cliff Lee and shortstop Jimmy Rollins. A number of teams inquired on the availability of Lee, but were apparently rebuffed from the start, or given such a high list of demands from Amaro that talks went nowhere in a hurry. 

The Oakland A's, fishing around for a shortstop, apparently checked in on their hometown boy JRoll, but again were either immediately rebuffed or unwilling to meet a high Phillies price.

MLB 2012: Philadelphia Phillies

Will 2012 be the final season that the Hawaiian is flyin' in a Phillies uniform?

I've quoted Simon & Garfunkel before when this type of topic comes up, and it is appearing more and more appropriate these days with my beloved Fightin' Phils: "The ending always comes to pass: endings always come too fast. They come too fast, but they pass to slow." The Mayans are not going to be correct in predicting that 2012 is the end of the world, but maybe what they were really talking about was the end of the Philadelphia Phillies dynasty.

As I stated in my previous post on the 2012 National League preview and predictions, for the last four MLB seasons the road to the World Series has gone directly through Philadelphia. Following on the heels of the first division crown for this bunch back in 2007, when Jimmy Rollins backed up his "We're the team to beat" words with an MVP season, the Phils won the World Series in 2008. They got back and lost in the following season. The teams that won the last two titles in 2010 and 2011, the Giants and Cardinals, both had to beat the Phillies to get there.

Though that post-season record seems to show slippage, the regular season has been just the opposite. In 2006, with Ryan Howard winning the NL MVP, the Phillies won 85 games. For each of the last six seasons, their win total has gone up each season: 89 wins in '07, 92 in '08, 93 in '09, 97 in '10, and finally to a franchise-record 102 wins last year in 2011. In this century, they have suffered just one losing season, and barely that with an 80-81 finish back in 2002. They have finished 1st or 2nd in the NL East standings in every season since and including 2004, and have won 5 straight division crowns.

I have been a Phillies fan now for over 40 years, stretching back to the very first season of play at Veteran's Stadium in 1971 when I was just 9 years old. I have been a fan through Jim Bunning, Woody Fryman, Willie Montanez, Frank Lucchesi, Dave Cash, Jay Johnstone, Dick Ruthven, Ron Reed, Lonnie Smith, Bo Diaz, John Felske, Kevin Gross, Chris James, Danny Jackson, Ken Howell, Rico Brogna, Paul Byrd, Jason Michaels and J.A. Happ.

Many of you have been along for that ride. It has included 19 losing seasons. Particularly bad was the long stretch from 1984 through 2000, when the club and we fans suffered 15 of 17 losing seasons. The 1993 season of Kruk, Dykstra, Daulton, Mitch, Fregosi, and their magical run to the World Series where they finally lost to a Hall of Fame and All-Star laden Blue Jays team was a joyful oasis in a searing desert of futility.

But now a generation of Phillies fans has grown up thinking that winning is the Phillies tradition. Pretty much anyone who is in their mid-20's or younger simply cannot remember the futile Veteran's Stadium days. It's all been about winning and contending, most of that for the past 8 seasons in the baseball heaven that is our beautiful Citizens Bank Park. And for most of that time it has included the same core group of players, particularly JRoll, Chase, Cole, Chooch, the Flyin' Hawaiian and Ryan Howard.

But after all that winning and all that contending, storm clouds are beginning to gather around this team. Some pundits have chose to ignore them altogether, or predict that the Phillies will overcome the injuries and changes of personnel with superior pitching. Others are running around like Chicken Little screaming that "the sky is falling" on this group of players. There is much talk around this core group that their "window of opportunity" is closing fast.

Well, I've been a "glass half full" kind of guy my entire life. In those 2012 NL predictions, I said that the Phillies will win their 6th straight NL East Division crown, their 3rd NL Pennant in the last 5 years, and advance to the World Series again before losing there to the Texas Rangers. Since I made those predictions public, I will stand by them. But in order to get there, this particular Phillies team will need to overcome more challenges than any before them in this recent winning era.

Let's begin with the obvious: Ryan Howard and Chase Utley are gone, and they aren't coming back any time soon. 

It has to at least be considered that Chase will never, ever return. Not the Chase Utley that we all have grown to know and love. For five years, from the 2005-2009 seasons, Utley was the best 2nd baseman in the game. He received league MVP votes every one of those seasons. He was an NL All-Star from 2006-2010. He won the Silver Slugger as the best offensive 2nd baseman four straight seasons from 2006-2009. But Chase turned 33 years old back in December. He has been playing with a variety of injuries for a couple of years. Now his knees are nearly shot, with virtually no cartilage. He is out indefinitely to begin the 2012 season.

Ryan Howard was the NL Rookie of the Year in 2005. He won the MVP in 2006, and has finished in the top five in that voting 3 other times since, receiving league MVP votes in each of the past six seasons. He is a 3-time NL All-Star who has bashed more than 30 homeruns and driven in more than 100 runs in six straight seasons. All of those numbers and honors are likely to end in 2012. Howard suffered severe tendon damage on the final at-bat of the 2011 playoffs, and his recovery will take another couple of months. Many athletes have taken a year or more to fully return from this type of injury. It is likely that even if he comes back in May or June, that he won't be the same, at least not this season.

There are a number of other dark clouds hovering over this club besides the Utley and Howard major losses. Placido Polanco, the 3rd baseman, is now 37-years old. He has won a Gold Glove award in 2 of the last 3, and in 3 of the last 5 seasons. But he is battling age and his own injuries now. Two other cornerstones, Shane "The Flyin' Hawaiian" Victorino (pictured above) and Cole Hamels will be free agents after this season if not signed to contract extensions that, at least at the moment, do not appear imminent. The longer their possible free agency lingers, the more it will play up in the press, especially if the club struggles.

So there are many more challenges facing affable manager Charlie Manuel's club than usual. However, there is a reason that I and other pundits have picked them to overcome these challenges. The fact remains that there is still a bunch of talent here that, though likely not capable given their loss of personnel and the improvement of their divisional rivals, to reach the 100-win mark again, still should make them the favorites in the NL East and a strong contender for another National League Pennant and World Series trip.

Let's start with what everyone knows, the Phillies will run out a starting pitcher every single game that will be as good as or better than what their opponent puts on the mound. Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels are 3 of the top 10 starting pitchers in baseball. Joe Blanton, Vance Worley, and Kyle Kendrick give the club solid, professional depth on the nights that the "Big Three" aren't toeing the mound. This depth also give GM Ruben Amaro some potential depth from which to deal, should Blanton or Kendrick need to be moved for position player help.

Out in the field, the left side of the infield is better defensively than any other in all of baseball when Polanco is at 3rd and JRoll at shortstop. Polanco does not provide much offensive production these days, but he is a solid, professional hitter. Jimmy Rollins remains the team catalyst, and the club will need a big year out of their newly signed leader both on and off the field. Until Howard and Utley return, the right side of the infield is where there will be a real challenge, one that could sink this club or elevate it to another big year.

At first base we are likely to see a combination of playing time based on matchups, all depending on which starting pitcher the opposition is throwing in that particular game. Time here will be shared by aging future Hall of Famer Jim Thome, a beloved fan favorite who was brought back to be a big lefty power bat off the bench, but whose roll may be expanded now. It will also be shared by Ty Wigginton, a jack-of-all-trades type journeyman who has pop in his bat, and who can also play 2nd, 3rd and the outfield. He likely will get time all over the diamond for this year's Phillies. Finally, John Mayberry Jr. will also see time at 1st base, possibly the most time, especially if he can be productive with the bat.

In the outfield, 2 of the 3 spots are manned by All-Star caliber players in centerfielder Victorino and emerging fan favorite Hunter Pence in right. Pence, the "Philadelphia Magazine" coverboy, is in his prime and should break out for his first 30-homer, 100-rbi season, and the Phils will need every bit of that. Victorino is 31-years old, and will be playing for what he hopes will be a big free agent contract, either here or elsewhere, and should be particularly motivated. Leftfield was supposed to be Mayberry's spot to lose, and he will see time there. But with him also needed at 1st base, the Phils will turn to a pair of newcomers in powerful veteran Layne Nix and speedy veteran Juan Pierre as well.

The loss of Utley and Howard has another residual effect, that of depleting the bench, because players expected to give the club depth will have to actually start more often. One guy who probably wouldn't even be here will be a starter, at least in the beginning. That player is the presumed shortstop-of-the-future, Freddy Galvis, who will be given the first shot at playing 2nd base regularly as the season opens. The club is hoping that Galvis, an outstanding defensive shortstop, can at least handle the position with the glove. Any offense that he gives them will be a bonus. Finally, there is Carlos Ruiz. Beloved fan favorite "Chooch" runs the pitching staff and is a true field general, as well as a clutch bat.

The bullpen has suffered through it's own share of injuries in the pre-season, with both Jose Contreras and Michael Stutes likely beginning the year on the DL. Antonio Bastardo has struggled some, and is facing a strong challenge as the primarly lefty out of the pen from young Joe Savery. Jake Diekman had an outstanding spring, but was sent to the minors for some more seasoning. He could be up early in the year to help. Chad Qualls and David Herndon are likely to see a lot of early innings if a righty is needed. 

The one place where there are no questions is the end of the game, where one of the best closers in the business, Jonathan Papelbon, will now finish things off. The longtime Red Sox pitcher was signed by the Phillies as their big free agent acquisition this off-season, and he should prove to be a big fan favorite for the fans who love flame-throwers with a passion for the game. 

In the 2012 season, especially in the first couple of months, there will be many low-scoring Phillies games. The formula will go something like this: Halladay, Lee or Hamels goes 7+ strong innings, a reliever or two holds down the fort for an inning or two, and Papelbon closes it out a Phillies victory. The offense will have been provided by Pence, Victorino and Rollins, with an occasional big homerun or steal from a Thome or a Mayberry or a Pierre.

This will not be at all easy. The Braves have a lot of talent. The Marlins have a new identity, enthusiasm, and also are talented. The Nationals are building something special. Any one of these teams could put it all together and, combined with Phillies struggles due to injuries, dethrone the champs. Put all together, and the competition will bring the Fightin's closer back to the overall pack in the standings. But in the end, pitching, defense, and experience win out. And if it all goes right, Howard and Utley get healthy enough for one more strong post-season run together.