Hector Neris has seized the Phillies bullpen closer role
Phillies manager Gabe Kapler began the 2019 season without a named closer at the back-end of his pitching staff. There were a number of options who appeared to be reasonably attractive. The skipper chose to simply use whichever option appeared best at an important moment over the late innings based on specific match-ups.
What began as a group of a half-dozen arms who Kapler hoped would fill those end-game roles has gradually shrunk to dangerously low levels.
David Robertson started slowly, producing a 5.40 ERA and 2.100 WHIP over seven games. The veteran free agent signee allowed eight hits over his first 6.2 innings with a 6/6 K:BB ratio before going down with a flexor strain in mid-April. It had been assumed by many that he would ultimately see the bulk of any “closer” opportunities.
Edubray Ramos and Victor Arano have also wound up on the Injured List. Youngsters Seranthony Dominguez and Edgar Garcia, the former who many believe has the pure stuff to one day serve as a closer, have been inconsistent at best. Pat Neshek has mostly succeeded despite not having dominant stuff and getting hit hard at times.
But one arm has emerged to save the day. That would be the big right arm of 29-year-old Hector Neris.
Neris had been the Phillies closer entering the 2018 season. But he began the year blowing a series of games, and by the end of June his ERA had skyrocketed to the 6.90 mark. Mercifully, he was demoted to Triple-A in order to rediscover his mojo.
Over 19 games with the Lehigh Valley IronPigs, Neris regained his confidence. He dominated minor league hitters, allowing just nine hits over 18.2 innings, striking out 31 batters while walking just seven in that time.
In mid-August, the righty was called back to Philadelphia. He immediately carried over that minor league success to the big-leagues, becoming the National League’s Reliever of the Month even though he didn’t appear in a single game with the Phillies until the 15th of the month.
Shortstop Jean Segura joined the Phillies growing Injury List
A gut-wrenching walkoff defeat on the scoreboard at the hands of the host Colorado Rockies was not the only loss suffered by the Philadelphia Phillies on Friday night.
The club also lost three players to the Injured List: shortstop Jean Segura, his backup in red-hot utility player Scott Kingery, and reliever Victor Arano.
Segura actually strained his left hamstring during Tuesday’s game against the New York Mets. His stint on the IL was made retroactive to Wednesday, and so he will be eligible to come off next weekend.
Kingery injured his right hamstring while running to first on a ground out in the fourth inning during Friday night’s defeat. He was starting for the third straight game at short in place of Segura.
Arano was called up from Triple-A just over a week ago. Per Matt Gelb, the right-hander was warming up to enter Friday night’s game in the 12th inning when he began to have trouble in his right pitching elbow.
Phil Gosselin will be the Phillies’ shortstop for the next week. He’s the only shortstop on the roster. Segura didn’t suffer a setback, but with Kingery down, they decided to be ultra cautious.
This will have to be the arrangement for at least the final two games of this current series against the Colorado Rockies, next week’s big early-season three-game match-up with the division rival New York Mets at Citi Field, and for the first couple games of next weekend’s four-game set with the Miami Marlins at Citizens Bank Park.
Phil Gosselin is in his seventh big-league season, but his first with the Phillies organization. He is local product, born and raised in Bryn Mawr. He attended Malvern Prep High School before moving on to play college ball at the University of Virginia.
Hunter becomes the first arm to go down in spring training
When objectively evaluating the Philadelphia Phillies 2019 roster for potential strengths and weaknesses, the bullpen would have to be listed on the “strengths” side of the ledger.
The addition of a few talented veterans this off-season to a solid returning group and some growing young arms has the pen looking stronger and deeper than it has in years.
Now less than two weeks into 2019 spring training that bullpen depth will begin to be tested. It’s first member has gone down due to injury. Tommy Hunter will be shut down for in indeterminate amount of time with a Grade 1 strain of the flexor muscle in his right pitching arm.
The flexor mass is a collection of muscles and tendons which come together in the forearm near the elbow. They function by allowing you to turn and flex your wrist. The injury as it affects a pitcher such as Hunter is described as follows by Robert G. Najarian, MD with Inova:
“With flexor mass strains, pitchers usually don’t feel pain until the follow-through phase of the pitch. That’s when you need the flexor mass to snap the wrist to get the ball in the strike zone. When the flexor mass is injured, the ball often ends high and pitchers can have problems locating their pitch.”
In general, Najarian states, the injury is treated with rest, anti-inflammatories, and a strength/rehabilitation program. Some players are out for just two weeks. For others the recovery can take as long as six to eight weeks. It all depends upon the severity of the injury and the individual player’s ability to recuperate.
The hope is that the Phillies and Hunter caught the injury early enough that this method of recovery will do the job. If such an injury is allowed to go untreated for too long, it could result in ligament damage and possibly the dreaded Tommy John surgery.
Hunter was signed by the Phillies as a free agent in December 2017 to a two-year, $18 million contract. The 32-year-old, 11-year veteran will not throw for two weeks and then will be re-evaluated.
The Phillies bullpen ranked around the middle of baseball last season. The club’s relievers as a group ranked 18th in ERA and BAA, 10th in K/9, and 11th in saves and K/BB among the 30 teams of Major League Baseball.
Juan Nicasio brings a veteran presence to deeper Phillies bullpen
Philadelphia Phillies general manager Matt Klentak had four major boxes that needed to be checked off when this off-season began if he wanted to truly build a contending team for the 2019 season.
Those four were a proven impact run-producer for the middle of the batting order, a better defensive lineup, another veteran starting pitcher (preferably left-handed), and improvements to the bullpen.
With the additions of Andrew McCutchen in left field and Jean Segura at shortstop, the defense should be improved. The club continues to search for the middle-order bat and the southpaw rotation arm.
It cannot be argued that Klentak has not improved the bullpen. Given health, the Phillies relief corps is both talented and deep, and should prove to be a strength for manager Gabe Kapler.
The Phillies have added three new arms to their bullpen. Right-hander Juan Nicasio and left-hander James Pazos arrived as part of the Segura trade from Seattle. Then just days ago the club signed one of baseball’s top relievers over the past decade, David Robertson, as a free agent.
The Phillies could still use a better situational left-handed arm. But a closer look at the statistics shows that the arms needed to win match-ups with big lefty bats may already be here.
Robertson had a 53/10 K:BB ratio against left-handed hitters a year ago. Those opposing lefty batters hit the right-handed Robertson for just a .176 BAA as well as a .378 slugging percentage.
The one negative for Robertson against those lefties was that they got to him for a half-dozen home runs over 132 plate appearances against him. In comparison, he surrendered just one long ball to a right-handed batter over 151 plate appearances against.
During his breakthrough rookie campaign a year ago, lefty batters hit for just a .188 average against Dominguez. His biggest problem with them were walks, as Dominguez handed out 14 free passes to lefties in 116 plate appearances. Compare that to just eight right-handers that he walked over 115 plate appearances.
Phillies 2018 rookie reliever Victor Arano (Photo: Ian D'Andrea via Wiki Commons)
The Philadelphia Phillies have one of the youngest overall rosters in Major League Baseball.
One of the more anonymous but successful of those youngsters this season has been relief pitcher Victor Arano.
A 23-year-old right-hander originally signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers out of his native Mexico back in 2013, Arano was a starter when first acquired by the Phillies as the “player to be named later” in a 2014 deal for veteran reliever Roberto Hernandez.
The Phillies converted the 6’2, 200-pound Arano to the bullpen full-time beginning in 2016. He would largely thrive in that role while rising through the minor league system over the next couple of years.
Appearing on the verge of a big-league promotion, Arano was backed up some when a UCL sprain in his right elbow sent him to the DL at the outset of the 2017 campaign.
He was able to avoid surgery, and finally received a first cup of coffee in Major League Baseball last September. Arano showed that he could get big-league hitters out during that 10-game audition, when he allowed just six hits over 10.2 innings with a 13/4 K:BB ratio.
Towards the end of last season, respected prospect evaluator John Sickels with Minor League Ball wrote up the following scouting profile on him:
“He can push his fastball as high as 96 but more commonly works around 92-94, mixing the heater with the low-to-mid-80s slider and a mid-80s change-up. While I would not describe his stuff as excellent, he mixes his pitches efficiently and usually throws strikes. He throws harder as a reliever than he did as a starter and the extra velocity improves his margin for error. Overall this is a middle relief profile but Arano is just 22 years old and has demonstrated advanced pitchability skills when he’s going well. He could have a very long career.“
Arano came north with the Phillies from spring training back in March and fared well over another 10 games. But then a mild rotator cuff strain sent him back to the DL in late April. It would take him until May 20 to get back to the Phillies, and he hasn’t left since.
During what is officially his rookie season, Arano has surrendered just 49 hits over 55 innings across 54 games. He has strong 2.45 ERA and 1.164 WHIP marks with a 70/19 K:BB ratio and three Saves.
In a piece on Arano back in early August, Stephen Loftus of Fangraphs described his journey and his season as follows:
“Arano has made a long, quiet trip to the majors. First an underrated signing, then a fringe prospect. First a mediocre starter, now a shutdown reliever. He has molded unique movement and pitchability into an effective arsenal, one that has kept major-league hitters guessing this season.”
As Phillies management begins planning the makeup of what they hope will become a truly contending 2019 roster, Arano will certainly have a place on the pitching staff.
Arano was reportedly unavailable earlier this week due to tenderness in the same right elbow that caused him to miss the start of last season. It was not believed to be serious, and sure enough the pitcher returned for a perfect inning on Thursday night.
Arano is closing his rookie season with a flourish. Appearing in eight of the Phillies 18 games since August 25, he did not surrender an earned run in any of those outings.
Not eligible for free agency until after the 2023 season, should Arano remain healthy he is likely to remain a valuable member of the Phillies bullpen for years to come.
Seranthony Dominguez (R) has strengthened the 'pen
The Philadelphia Phillies dropped a 3-0 heartbreaker on Wednesday night at Citi Field. The host New York Mets won it on a two-out, pinch-hit, three-run home run from Brandon Nimmo off Phillies reliever Mark Leiter Jr to gain a split of the four-game series between the division rivals.
For some Phillies fans, this might seem like just another in a string of games blown by the bullpen. The relief corps has been much maligned this season. Some of the individual pitchers have certainly deserved the criticism at times.
What those same fans may not have noticed is that the Phillies bullpen has been extremely effective since the calendar turned to July.
Frankly, games like last night’s are going to happen to almost every team over the course of a long 162-game season. However, a look at the statistics shows that the Phillies bullpen may be turning into a strength.
Here are the numbers put up by the various Phillies relief pitchers, beginning with games of July 1:
As you can tell from Leiter’s figures, this was the bullpen performance up until the time he stepped on to the mound last night. Prior to that appearance, Phillies relief pitchers had a cumulative 1.06 ERA during the month of July.
In fact, it looked as if Leiter was going to continue that excellence when the inning began. He retired the first two Mets batters to start the frame.
After a two-out double by Amed Rosario, the Phillies right-hander got to 3-2 on Jose Reyes. But the veteran Mets hitter layed off a low-and-away changeup, drawing a free pass to set-up Nimmo’s walkoff heroics.
Yes, if you want to get technical, as well as to generalize, “the bullpen blew it” last night. But the Phillies relief pitchers have actually been helping this team as the dog days of summer have begun.
Even though the offense has managed just four or fewer runs in eight of the 10 games this month, the club has gone 7-3. That improved work from the bullpen has been an important factor.
Could the Phillies bring back former hero Cole Hamels?
As the month of June draws to a close, this weekend also marks the exact halfway point to the 2018 Major League Baseball regular season.
One month from this weekend, the MLB non-waiver trade deadline will arrive. The Philadelphia Phillies, emerging from a half-decade of irrelevance, are once again emerging as playoff contenders.
The Phillies have a number of holes which need to be filled in order to remain legitimate contenders in the current season. As that trade deadline draws closer and rumors begin to heat up, Phillies fans find their team has been frequently involved in the gossip.
The most glaring need may be at least one proven run producer for the middle of their batting order. That hitter would preferably play on the left side of the infield, or at a corner outfield spot. Manny Machado of the Baltimore Orioles, who could slot in at either shortstop or third base, is the biggest name being tossed around.
The club also could use help in the bullpen. A pair of 23-year old right-handers, Seranthony Dominguez and Victor Arano, are the only currently healthy members of the bullpen who have been consistently reliable.
I also believe that the Phillies are going to need one more strong, proven veteran starting pitcher for their rotation. Behind Aaron Nola and Jake Arrieta, and possibly Zach Eflin if he remains healthy and effective, one more veteran would really solidify them for the second half.
I've written previously that a good option moving forward would be an immediate move of Vincent Velasquez to the bullpen. Adding that veteran starting pitcher could allow this switch to happen. I believe it would strengthen the back of the relief corps as well, taking care of two needs.
One option who has frequently been linked to the Phillies, especially among the fan base, is former World Series hero Cole Hamels. The Texas Rangers, to whom the Phils traded the lefty three years ago, are actively shopping the now 34-year old.
Sources: #Rangers groundwork on a Cole Hamels trade has advanced to the point that a deal before the All-Star Game is increasingly possible. @MLB
Hamels is 4-6 this season with a 3.61 ERA and 1.274 WHIP. He has surrendered 87 hits over 97.1 innings pitched across 16 starts with a 97/37 K:BB ratio. Those are all solid numbers, and would certainly upgrade the current Phillies rotation.
However, there are some red flags with Hamels. His current FIP mark of 5.22 is well above the 4.09 MLB average. That mark ranks him just 87th of 91 pitchers who have recorded at least 80 innings pitched and a dozen starts.
His biggest problem this season has been the long ball. Hamels has already surrendered 20 home runs, two more than he allowed all of last season. He has never given up more than 28 in any full season previously.
Corey Seidman for NBC Sports Philadelphia addressed the possible reasons for those troubles in a recent article regarding a possible reunion between Hamels and the Phillies:
"Some of that is because he's around the plate often with a fastball that averages 91 mph; some of it is because the Rangers' home park is among the most homer-friendly venues in baseball."
Citizens Bank Park is no picnic for fly ball pitchers either. Globe Life Park in Texas ranks as the second-toughest for pitchers as far as surrendering home runs. Citizens Bank Park is 10th among the 30 ball parks in Major League Baseball.
However, Hamels won 114 games here over a full decade between 2006-15. He certainly is comfortable here, and knows how to make adjustments at the South Philly park.
The Phillies are already paying $2.5 million of his $23.5 million contract for this year. With the season halfway over, they would be on the hook for the rest of that money, roughly $11 million. There is also a $20 million team option for next season, which they would presumably pick up.
That money wouldn't hurt the Phillies in any way. The club has plenty to spend both this season and next. But bringing back Hamels would not only cost some cash, it would also cost the Phillies something from their minor league system.
That is where the answer can be found as to whether or not the Phillies should consider bringing Cole Hamels back to bolster their rotation for a couple of years. What would that prospect package look like?
You also have to factor the possibility of the Phillies going after a big bat such as Machado. That deal would certainly involve more, and more valuable, prospects than would be needed in a Hamels trade.
The Phillies do have the minor league talent to get a Hamels or Machado deal done. In fact, they have enough to get both deals done. But should they pay the price? That is the big question for GM Matt Klentak and owner John Middleton to decide in the coming days and weeks.
I believe that the return of Hamels would not only be a great story, it would also help the Phillies. The money is not an object. And I also believe that the price in prospects would be reasonable.
Should the Phillies bring home Cole Hamels, the 2008 World Series and NLCS Most Valuable Player? As long as that prospect package is indeed reasonable, you have to vote 'Yes' on this proposition.
Seranthony Dominguez should be the Phillies closer
The Philadelphia Phillies have six relief pitchers who have recorded a Save at this point in the 2018 season.
But right now the Phillies don't have a closer, and their manager seems to believe that they don't need one.
None of those six relievers with a Save has more than nine, which is the total achieved by Hector Neris, the man who was once considered the team's closer.
The bullpen as a whole has been, how shall we say, not good. Luis Garcia (24.2), Neris (24.1), Drew Hutchison (21.1), Tommy Hunter (17.2), and Yacksel Rios (17) have all been given significant opportunities. All have largely failed. Each carries an ERA above the 4.00 level of mediocrity, with four of them over or approaching the 5.00 mark.
A little more than a month ago the team promoted a lights-out reliever from the minor leagues to help right the ship. Seranthony Dominguez was dominant in stints at AA and AAA over the first six weeks. He had allowed just eight hits over 16.2 innings with a 21/3 K:BB ratio.
Dominguez quickly proved to be the Phillies best reliever. Opponents were unable to score on the 23-year old right-hander over his first dozen appearances.
To this point over his first 15 appearances, Dominguez has produced a 1.42 ERA and a 0.421 WHIP. He has surrendered just seven hits over 19 innings with a 22/1 K:BB ratio in the big leagues.
Dominguez is clearly the Phillies best option to close. But manager Gabe Kapler, a big "new age" baseball thinker, doesn't see it that way. Kapler revealed his thought process during an interview on Sportsradio WIP on Wednesday morning.
Gabe Kapler on Seranthony Dominguez: "I just don't think an elite reliever is best deployed in any specific inning...the most important moment of a game may be bases loaded with 2 outs in the 7th inning." #Phillies
The problem with Kapler's line of thinking is simple when you think about it. Sure, there are going to be times when a critical point is reached in the 6th, 7th, or 8th innings. No arguing there.
However, you can say the exact same thing about the 3rd or 4th inning. The game is a high-scoring 6-6 affair in the 4th and your starter is getting knocked around. The opposition has the bases loaded and one out. Do you bring in your best reliever then to get out of the jam?
The fact is that you need your very best reliever available as the "closer", that hammer to nail the door shut on a game once the rest of your team has battled through eight tough innings to earn a lead.
Once you burn a Seranthony Dominguez in the earlier innings, now what do you do when the 9th rolls around and you need someone to close it out? Ahh, I know, you trust another one of your "lesser" relief pitchers who you weren't willing to trust earlier. Brilliant!
Part of the Phillies dilemma, as I see it: they don't want to trust the kids who are actually getting the job done over veterans who are getting paid more money and have more experience.
Kapler should be using 25-year old Edubray Ramos and 23-year old Victor Arano in the 7th and 8th innings to set up the 23-year old Dominguez for the 9th inning.
Ramos has a ridiculous 0.75 ERA mark and a low 1.167 WHIP. He has allowed just 18 hits over 24 innings with a 27/10 K:BB ratio. Arano has fashioned a 2.11 ERA and 1.031 WHIP mark, allowing just 17 hits over his 21.1 innings. He has a fine 23/5 K:BB ratio thus far.
Let the team battle through the first half-dozen innings as a whole. Use the veteran relievers to get through any tough situations that might pop up when the starters falter or tire. Then turn to the lights-out kids to hold down any leads you take into the late innings.
Despite what some try to say, baseball does not need to be reinvented constantly. What a baseball team that really wants to win needs is for the people running the ship to believe what their eyes are seeing. It request them to understand the formula that has been proven effective over decades of experience.
Seranthony Dominguez should be the Philadelphia Phillies closer right now, and hopefully for years to come. It is then up to the manager and the rest of club management to find the pieces and place them properly to get through tough innings that come up prior to the 9th rolling around.
