Predicting the Phillies Opening Day Roster

Club management with the Philadelphia Phillies, itself the object of much change, has spent the past couple of years shaping the organizational talent for the future.

Some of that young talent has already reached the big leagues. This is most especially true on the pitching staff.

In the everyday lineup, the very best prospects in the Phillies system are nearly ready for their first full-time shot. The 25-man roster that opens the 2017 regular season in just over two weeks is going to look very different by the end of the season.

But let’s not get that far ahead of ourselves. This will be a look not at the Phillies of July or September, but the club that will travel to Cincinnati for that 2017 Opening Day.

The players who begin the season in a Phillies uniform include a number who are on borrowed time. That is because the club has intentionally signed a few players specifically with the knowledge that they will likely (hopefully?) step aside later in the year as the prospects become fully ready.

One major caveat here is that the players listed remain healthy. A minor injury at the start could delay a player who would normally make it. This would provide an opportunity, even if temporary, to someone else. But injuries aside, this is how I see things breaking with Pete Mackanin‘s club at this point.

Philadelphia Phillies 2016 Grades: Outfielders

There is probably a wide swath of the larger Philadelphia sports fan base who were not paying much attention to the Phillies during the month of September.

Unless you are, like myself, one of the hard cores who follows closely year ’round no matter the circumstances, you missed something significant and exciting.

That exciting and significant development was the somewhat unexpected promotion and insertion into the regular lineup of outfield prospect Roman Quinn following the conclusion of the minor league playoffs.

The 23-year old speedster has worked his way towards the top of the Fightin’ Phils batting order, producing four stolen bases and eight runs scored over his first 65 plate appearances over 14 games, 13 of those as a starter.

Those may not sound overly impressive at first blush. But extrapolated out over a full season at the top of the order, and we are talking about a likely base line of 40 stolen bases and 80 runs scored for the switch-hitter.

I’ve been harping the talents of Quinn for the past couple of years, so the fact that I am a fanboy is no surprise to anyone who follows.

He is also weighed down by a .226 batting average that is sure to increase by at least 50 points as he adjusts to the big league level. His on-base percentage of .349 is already acceptable.

But I believe that anyone who has watched his speed on the bases and that same speed as well as his throwing arm in the outfield now is well aware that I haven’t been selling a bill of goods. Quinn is the real deal, and he is the Phillies future in center field.

Quinn is one of seven Phils outfielders for whom I am going to provide a grade for their 2016 performance.

Phillies Closing August in Poor Shape

Following Tuesday night's 3-2 defeat at the hands of the NL East rival Washington Nationals, the Phillies have played the schedule to a 12-13 record during the month of August.

While that might now seem like too bad a mark, a look at the club's recent play and some of the mitigating circumstances shows that they are entering September in much worse shape than fans hoped would be the case.

Over the last two weeks the Phillies have won just four of their 13 games, and have now lost four consecutive series of three games or more. Only the two game Interleague split with the White Sox was a non-loser in that stretch.

During this stretch, other than the pair against the Chisox, the Phils have faced some really good, contending ball clubs in the Los Angeles Dodgers, Saint Louis Cardinals, New York Mets, and now the Nationals.

Those four teams are a combined 50 games over the .500 mark, and the group includes two divisional leaders (Nationals, Dodgers), one of the two current NL Wildcard teams (Cardinals) and a Mets club that is just 2.5 out of that WC race.

However, more than the competition level is at play here. The Phillies are simply not looking very competitive most nights, and do not seem to be playing with the same spirit, drive, and intensity that characterized their early season success.

Realistic Expectations for Phillies Summer of 2016

From Saturday, April 9th when the Phillies registered their first victory of the 2016 season behind a stellar outing from Vincent Velasquez through Saturday, May 14th when Aaron Nola beat the Cincinnati Reds, the Phils registered a phenomenal 22-11 record.

That stretch of .667 baseball left the club tied for first place in the National League East Division for a few heady hours. There was widespread talk of a possible miracle season.

The formula was often maddening, yet it was just as consistent: great starting pitching, strong relief work, and just enough runs to win the games, often by just a single run.

However, for every fan who dreamed of a worst-to-first campaign, or at worst, a legitimate Wildcard playoff chase, there were others who saw inevitable trouble ahead.

Those were not negativists speaking against contention, they were realists. The fact was that the Phillies entered the season widely predicted to finish at or near the bottom of the overall MLB standings for a second consecutive season.

Teams simply do not overcome such talent evaluations made by educated observers within the industry on that widespread a level.

You are what you are, and unless you flip the script in a major way with injections of talent to the playing lineup, things are not going to change very much from those predictions.

Sure, you can buck the odds for a short time. Every team goes through hot and cold stretches during a season. 

Your team gets hot, starts to believe in itself, then maybe management also buys in, injecting talent from outside via trade. Maybe that props you up enough to stay in the race for most of a season.

But for that to happen, your team probably needs to stay in contention through June, and be hanging around the Wildcard race at the MLB All-Star break.

It does not look as if this group of Phillies is going to be able to extend their own hot streak out that far. 

In fact, it is not very difficult to make the argument that by the end of June, this team will be as buried in the standings as those preseason prognosticators imagined.

Since that surge to the top of the division on May 14th, the Phillies have gone just 4-10. They are now only one game over the .500 mark, and a loss tonight would sink them to that dead-even level for the first time since they were 10-10 on April 26th.

Those prognosticators would, in fact, say that the .286 winning percentage over these last two and a half weeks is likely closer to what we can expect the rest of the summer than even a continued .500 mark.

It won't continue this bad. Last year's club, which finished with 99 losses and the worst overall record in baseball, recorded a .389 winning percentage. This year's team is noticeably better, if only on the pitching mound.

Back on April 4th in my "Phillies 2016: Editor's Prediction" piece at TBOH, I called the Phils as a 75-win team this season that would indeed surprise - but only to the point of finishing in 3rd place, ahead of the Miami Marlins and Atlanta Braves.

Sticking with that prediction would mean that from here on out, the Phillies would go 49-62, which would be a .441 winning percentage over the course of the summer.

Now that is cheating just a wee bit, since summer doesn't officially start for nearly three more weeks. But with Memorial Day weekend in our rearview mirror, considered the "unofficial start to summer" by most folks, I'll stand with the prediction.

No matter how long this current cold stretch goes on, it will end, and the club will level off a bit at some point. But fans should not expect to see them play at that earlier .667 pace again over another month.

Playing at a .441 percentage over the rest of the summer, which is what I predict will happen, gives the club a final 75-87 record. They will be able to look back at the end and know that had a half-dozen games turned differently, they could have been a .500 team.

That is where we will begin in 2017, with a team legitimately looking at their first winning season since 2011. It should indeed be an expectation next year. There should be enough infusion of real talent to manager Pete Mackanin's everyday lineup to make that a legitimate goal.

The position player core of Maikel Franco and Odubel Herrera may still see Tyler Goeddel added to their number from those presently with the team, but no other current Phils' regular figures to remain in the lineup when the club emerges again as a winner.

For this summer, fans should definitely temper any playoff expectations while continuing to watch solid performances from the young pitchers, both starters and relievers.

Fans should also continue to monitor the minor leagues for the development of the best position players: J.P. Crawford, Nick Williams, and Jorge Alfaro in particular.

Getting Williams and Crawford to Philly at some point this summer is a realistic possibility. 

I believe that you will see Williams first, possibly by or just after the All-Star break. Crawford has begun slowly at AAA, and unless he heats up and stays hot, it may be September before we see him.

Also this summer, we will see more good young pitching come from the minor leagues. Adam Morgan appears to be one or two more bad outings away from a demotion, with Zach Eflin, Alec Asher, and Jake Thompson all pushing hard for the next shot at the big leagues.

That was always what this 2016 season was supposed to be about, watching some of the younger players continue to develop, enjoying beautiful Citizens Bank Park, the excitement of the first overall pick in the MLB Amateur Draft, and following those minors intently for the kids to come.

And that, as it turns out, is exactly what this summer is going to be all about. Not some miracle, magical playoff run. No, that won't be happening. But better than last year, with legitimate hope for next.

Phillies Should Stand Pat in the Outfield in 2016

The projected right fielder, Aaron Altherr, went down with a left wrist injury suffered last week. 

He will miss anywhere from four to six months, which means that he will be out for most, if not all, of the coming 2016 season.

There has been speculation from a number of sources, most notably MLB insider Jayson Stark, that the Phillies are keeping their eyes open for possible corner outfield additions.

Jayson Stark 

✔@jaysonst

Another thing we mentioned on the podcast: Phillies looking for a veteran OF with Altherr out. Willing to take on $.https://twitter.com/Josh_Macri/status/709755413303058432 …

11:03 AM - 15 Mar 2016

 
•  1818 Retweets
 
•  1818 likes

While the addition of some “veteran OF” would not necessarily be a bad idea, it is my opinion that the addition of any outfielder at this point is not necessary, and might in fact prove detrimental under the current Phillies circumstances.

Whether you agree with or like the term “tanking” in regards to the Phillies 2016 season plans, the fact remains that this is at best a 2nd division team, and at worst once again one of the worst teams in baseball.

What the Phillies need more than anything else right now is to fully evaluate as much of their in-house talent as possible. 

Looking Ahead to Phillies 2016 Outfield Mix

On April 6th, 2015 for Opening Day against the Boston Red Sox at Citizens Bank Park, the Phillies starting outfield consisted of Ben Revere in left, Odubel Herrera in center, and Grady Sizemore in right field.

Six months later, on October 4th, the Phillies closed out the season hosting the Miami Marlins with a starting outfield of Darin Ruf in left, Aaron Altherr in center, and Jeff Francoeur in right field. During the game, Altherr slid over to left, and Herrera came on to play center field.

During the course of the 2015 season, Cody Asche started 61 games and played in 63 out in left field. 

With the trade of Revere to the Toronto Blue Jays at the July trade deadline, that made Asche, who began the year as the starting 3rd baseman, the player who had seen the most action at the left field position.

That 2015 outfield mix was a major change from the previous season. In 2014, the Phillies started Marlon Byrd in right field for 149 games, Revere in center for 141, and Domonic Brown in left field for 127 games.

Now as the club prepares to report for spring training in Clearwater in just three weeks, the outfield is again poised for significant changes. 

Gone are Byrd, Brown, Francoeur, Revere, and Sizemore. The outfield has been a disappointing mess for the Phillies at least since Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence were dealt away at the 2012 trade deadline. 

Phillies Looking at Tyler Goeddel in Rule 5 Draft

The Philadelphia Phillies are looking closely at outfielder Tyler Goeddel in preparation for the MLB Rule 5 Draft.

Selected by the Tampa Bay Rays as the 41st overall selection in the 2011 MLB Amateur Draft out of Mountain View High School in Georgia, Goeddel signed as an 18-year old, and thus became a free agent following five minor league seasons after which he was not included on the Rays’ 40-man roster.

Goeddel was originally a third baseman, playing the hot corner as he rose through the Tampa minor league system over his first three seasons. The Rays decided to move him to the outfield a year ago.

A superb athlete with good speed, a strong arm, and a quick bat, there has been somespeculation that Goeddel was rushed at the outset of his development when the Rays started the teenager at Low-A Bowling Green in 2012, an uncommonly aggressive move by the usually conservative Tampa organization.